So far we have been accustomed to thinking that the Planet we live in with its finite resources is becoming unsustainable in the face of a growing population. More so with environmental degradation that living itself - comfort and squalor included - has induced.
It appears, however, that such a conventional belief in adverse land:man ratio is in for a revision after all - globally! A study published in Lancet, which followed (fertility) trends in 'every country' from 1950 to 2017, has revealed a 'remarkable' decline in fertility rates. The finding dubbed as 'a huge surprise' unravels that nearly half of countries were now facing a "baby bust" (contrasted perhaps with baby boom) meaning that 'there are insufficient children to maintain their population size', a BBC report explained.
The highs and lows in fertility rates have been illustrated graphically - whereas in 1950 women were having on average 4.7 children in a lifetime, the rate would be halved to 2.4 children by 2017. Niger, in west Africa, has had a fertility rate of 7.1 per woman while at the other extreme is Cyprus with woman having one child on average.
Let's see where Bangladesh stands: The Net Reproductive Rate in Bangladesh dropped to 1.02 in 2015. The study in question states 'whenever a country's average fertility rate drops below 2.1 then population will eventually start to shrink.' However, "Baby bust" is higher in countries which have high rates of child mortality. Bangladesh has successfully reduced the rate of child mortality through its immunisation programmes but there is an issue here with nutrition.
The researchers' prediction about falling fertility rates reads thus: There would be profound consequences for societies with "more grandparents than grandchildren". It is no rocket science to gauge the dire consequences of ageing population crowding out the youngsters. Firstly, a drastic fall in the number of working age groups means stagnant, unworkable and back-sliding society and economy. Secondly, this implies an automatic reduction in procreation.
It is interesting to note 'the fall in fertility rate is not down to sperm counts or any other things that normally come to mind when thinking of fertility'. Instead, this is being ascribed to three key factors, viz., fewer deaths in childhood induce women to have fewer babies; greater access to contraceptives; and more women being engaged in education and work.
It is important to bear in mind that half of the world is still producing enough children to grow, but as more countries develop economically, more will have lower fertility rates. It is therefore assumed that it will take a generation for change in fertility rates to take hold, so that there is potential lead time for planning and making adjustments .
Japan's awareness of the challenge is illustrated by its opening up to migrants. Actually, insularity is no option in the global village. The demographic shifts make out a strong case for natural migration of people across continents like in the case of natural flows of capital and exchange of technologies.
Fertility rates, death rates and migrations should be factored into a holistic global strategy with the underpinnings of human resource development in order to address the 'new normal'.
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