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Search date: 24-09-2019 Return to current date: Click here

probing eyes

A new twist to the tale

Mahmudur Rahman | September 24, 2019 00:00:00


The proxy war in Yemen went into a new twist with the Houthi rebel drone attack on Saudi oil installations. President Donald Trump was quick to disavow any United States involvement and on their part the Saudis, left red faced as they were, haven't pointed the finger at anyone specific. That being said the whole world knows of Iran's backing of the Houthis. At face level it would fall within reason to believe that sanction-strapped Iran gains from a downscaling in Saudi oil production. The impact on world prices that surged in the aftermath puts pressure on the need to ease the sanctions, given that the world needs the oil and shortages will scuttle the comparative calm in prices.

It seems unbelievable that the Saudi installations were left so vulnerable, especially given the way Gatwick Airport went into shutdown mode after drones were spotted there quite a few months ago. Till today British Police haven't released details about where those drones came from nor who was behind it. Saudi Arabia has invested billions in developing their oil sites and yet fell short of planning for any security violations. It may well be the Kingdom is licking its wounds and preparing for a counter. Whether this will be by upscaling the attacks on the Houthis or otherwise remains to be seen. For now they will be scrambling to protect their other oil installations for such recurrence even as the damage control triggers are pulled. It will be the contractors laughing their way to the banks as they seek to put in defensive measures and most probably from the United States whose armaments are on full display in Yemen. And for all the sanctions Iran is still finding ways to arm the Houthis in the unnecessary and internecine conflict that is tearing Yemen apart. The armaments sellers are having a field day in the midst of all this.

It is the price hike of oil that Bangladesh will be fretting over. For a decent period the relatively low cost of oil allowed the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation to not only recoup the subsidy losses of the past but also turn in decent profits. The cash-strapped government has targeted this as one of the sources to fund its development projects but will now have to think anew. In hindsight the thinking has proved to be sane. Retail prices weren't reduced despite the international price stability of oil. But now that the scale is moving the opposite way the subsidies might again have to be enforced. As it is there was disagreement among OPEC and Russia about cutting oil production to jack-up prices. The incident in Saudi Arabia appears to have pushed the agenda in the direction of price rises without a cut in production. What Bangladesh can't afford is for prices to go beyond permissible subsidies and an increase in retail prices. The impact of that on the economy would be significant in a growingly alarming inflationary period after the floods.

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