Global tensions to force trade slowdown in 2019: WTO

GENEVA, Apr 02 (AFP): Global trade growth is expected to be lower in 2019 than it was last year, the World Trade Organisation forecast on Tuesday, citing widespread "tensions" and economic uncertainty.

The WTO had in its preliminary estimates predicted a 3.7 per cent expansion of trade for this year, but has revised that down to 2.6 per cent, marking a decline on the three-per cent growth recorded in 2018.

"The fact that we don't have great news today should surprise no one who has been reading the papers over the last 12 months," WTO director-general (DG) Roberto Azevedo told reporters in Geneva.

In its main annual forecast, the 164-member WTO renewed its concerns about systemic threats that could continue to disrupt the world's economy, notably retaliatory tariffs between China and the United States.

There are indications that ongoing talks between Washington and Beijing could resolve the bruising tariff battle, but timelines for a possible deal are not clear.

Asked if he saw either side emerging victorious in the trade spat between the world's two largest economies, Azevedo said "there will be many losers".

It was therefore becoming "increasingly urgent" that tensions are resolved, he added in a statement.

The WTO is "definitely hoping that we will hear good news" from the US-China talks, said Azevedo, who is a Brazilian national.

A year ago, the WTO projected that trade growth for 2018 would be 4.4 per cent. The fact that the final number was 1.4 per cent lower than the initial estimate highlights the considerable downside risks plaguing the global economy, WTO economists said.

For this year, the downside risks again outweigh the upside potential, but a "relaxation" of tensions, especially the lifting of restrictive trade measures, could see 2019 beat the projections, the WTO said.

The projections released Tuesday are based on a "relatively smooth" Brexit playing out over the next two years, WTO economist Coleman Nee told reporters.