The scale and composition of the Revised Annual Development Programme (RADP) for the current fiscal year reveal a far larger contraction than many had anticipated, particularly in sectors that underpin human development. While some degree of rationalisation was inevitable amid tight fiscal space, revenue shortfall and sluggish project execution, the magnitude of the cuts -- especially in health, education, and social protection -- raises deeper questions about development priorities at a critical juncture of the economy.
According to Planning Commission officials, the Programming Division has already circulated project-wise allocations of the proposed RADP among the Commission's divisions for review. The exercise reflects the government's effort to realign spending with implementation capacity and fiscal realities. Yet the revised allocations also expose stark trade-offs. While overall development spending is being compressed, a few sectors such as science and ICT, general public services, and defence are set to receive higher allocations even as core human-capital sectors absorb some of the steepest reductions.
Economists note that while a downward revision was widely expected, the severity of the cuts in health and higher education is particularly concerning. Investment in these areas yields returns over a longer time, and abrupt contractions risk weakening the foundations of productivity, innovation and social resilience. Reduced spending on university research, digital learning, and medical infrastructure may not show immediate damage, but the cumulative effects could become evident in the medium term through slower skill formation and constrained healthcare capacity.
Among the hardest-hit sectors in absolute terms is transport and communications, traditionally the largest component of the ADP. The revised allocation of Tk 386.25 billion represents a cut of Tk 203.48 billion -- around 34.5 per cent -- from the original Tk 589.73 billion. This deep reduction is expected to slow implementation across several infrastructure projects, including metro rail lines, expressways, railway modernisation, and major road expansions. Executing agencies have reportedly been instructed to prioritise essential works and defer non-urgent components, a move that may help contain costs but could also extend project timelines and dilute anticipated growth.
The education sector has undergone a substantial contraction, with its allocation reduced by 34.77 per cent to Tk 186.28 billion. This translates into a loss of Tk 99.30 billion from the original allocation of Tk 285.57 billion, making education the second most affected sector after transport. More worrying is the uneven distribution of these cuts. The Secondary and Higher Education Division -- which oversees universities, colleges, and technical and digital upgrades -- faces a massive reduction of Tk 56.02 billion, or nearly 47 per cent. Such a contraction could hinder university capacity development, slow the expansion of research initiatives, and delay the adoption of technology-driven learning.
In contrast, the Ministry of Primary and Mass Education emerges as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the revised programme. Its allocation increases by 38.78 per cent, or Tk 22.51 billion, reflecting the government's renewed focus on foundational learning. Officials attribute the rise largely to the approval of a new mega project aimed at ensuring midday meals for primary school students. The emphasis on early-grade literacy, nutrition, and school infrastructure signals a strategic choice to strengthen the foundation of education, even as higher tiers face retrenchment.
Nowhere, however, is the contraction more severe in proportional terms than in the health sector. Its allocation plunges by 63.27 per cent to Tk 47.33 billion, triggering alarm among public health experts. Within the sector, the Medical Education and Family Welfare Division sees a staggering 72 per cent cut, while the Health Services Division faces a reduction of 58.35 per cent. Such sharp declines threaten to stall hospital expansion, delay medical college infrastructure projects, and constrain the procurement of equipment and recruitment-linked components of ongoing schemes. These cuts come at a time when public hospitals are already grappling with rising patient loads, the growing burden of non-communicable diseases and chronic shortages of resources and personnel.
Transport-focused agencies also bear a disproportionate share of the adjustment. Dhaka Mass Transit Company Limited (DMTCL), the implementing agency for metro rail projects, experiences the single largest cut-78.92 per cent-bringing its allocation down to Tk 24.17 billion. The Road Transport and Highways Division loses Tk 118.23 billion, while the railways ministry's allocation declines by 34.65 per cent. Such reductions may help contain short-term fiscal pressures but risk slowing momentum in sectors that have strong backward linkages to construction, manufacturing, and employment.
Economists express deep disappointment over the reduced allocations for health, specialised education and social protection at a time when increased investment in these areas is viewed essential. Spending in these sectors not only strengthens human capital but also channels resources directly to lower-income households through ADP implementation, creating both social and economic multipliers.
In infrastructure, slower progress on roads, railways and urban transit could push back completion deadlines for mega projects, undermining transport efficiency and dampening growth prospects. Reduced capital spending may also weaken demand for construction materials and limit private sector participation, further softening economic activity.
The revised ADP thus reflects more than a fiscal adjustment; it reveals a set of policy choices with long-lasting implications. As the government navigates fiscal constraints, the challenge will be to ensure that short-term austerity does not erode the very foundations of long-term development.
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