Overcoming most damaging impacts of climate

The projection is one of the direst, if not the direst. Bangladesh is set to lose, warns the Asian Development Bank, 16.2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2070. By 2050, the country's population is projected to reach 202 million although it is likely to drop to 170 million in another 50 years. By that time, as another UN agency the International Labour Organisation (ILO) has also hoisted the danger signal recently, 17 per cent of the country's territory will get submerged due to sea-level rise, leading to 30 per cent loss of its agricultural land. The country can count it lucky that the GDP loss will not be even more. In between now and 2070, there are only 45 years, considered the most productive period for a whole generation. During the time, even if the population size declines from its peak 202 million to 180-190 million and the projected territory loss takes hold and the consequent exodus of coastal people towards urban centres happens, how disastrous will be the climatic convulsion for this small country?

What percentage of GDP loss will be due to sea-level rise or flooding or other climatic adversities is immaterial to people who have to abandon their home and hearth and become climate refugees. A land-scarce country, Bangladesh is not economically strong enough to mitigate the sufferings of the victims of the river erosions. When inhabitants of the 17 per cent of territory lost to sea-level rise will look for shelter elsewhere, the country has no excess land to distribute among them for housing. It is a stark reality staring in the face of the country. Ranked 9th in the Global Climate Risk Index, 2023, Bangladesh is likely to plunge into an unmitigated crisis it has never faced before. Its food security will be seriously compromised with the loss of 30 per cent of its agricultural land.

The country has recorded population growth of 1.03 and 1.23 per cents in 2022, 2023 respectively and it is projected to be 1.22 per cent in 2024. If nothing happens unexpectedly to reduce the population size, the country will have to feed the greatest number of mouths around the time climate takes its greatest toll. Sure enough, the growth rate of population is reasonable and it will continue to decline like advanced industrial countries after that point of time. But unlike those advanced countries, Bangladesh with a smaller territory already boasts a burgeoning population. More importantly, the majority of the population have not received quality education and skills enjoying high demands abroad for migration.

Clearly, demographic planning is crucially important with a greater focus on developing the competence of the underprivileged. This is highly compatible with the inherent theme of establishing a discrimination-free society---a rallying cry of the anti-discrimination movement. Redistribution of national wealth alone can and should be the preserve of and priority before the governments assuming power henceforth. Time is short and the interim government has even a shorter time to shape a roadmap for gradually reducing inequality in society by the governments to follow. Obviously, the initiative has to be made by the country itself and the partners in progress may be requested to join the move in order to develop resilience against adverse climatic impacts.