Artificial intelligence (AI) could increase global trade by 40 per cent by the year of 2040, a new World Trade Organisation (WTO) report has said.
But without having adequate policies, it could also exacerbate economic divides, the report warned.
Adoption of AI would help lessen trade costs, boost productivity and expand participation in global markets, thus aiding increases in global trade coupled with real income.
The development and deployment of AI are also projected to generate a substantial increase in the global GDP, ranging from 12 per cent to 13 per cent across scenarios.
The WTO made these projections and observations in its 'World Trade Report 2025', which was formally released in Geneva on Wednesday morning at a session of the WTO Public Forum 2025.
The theme of the latest World Trade Report is: 'Making trade and AI work together to the benefit of all.'
Based on the WTO projections, it is estimated that global trade in goods and services may reach at US$46.20 trillion in 2040 from $33.30 trillion in 2024.
Global services trade, in terms of exports, reached $8.90 trillion in the last year, recording a robust 10 per cent growth over the previous year. The global exports of goods, however, stood at $24.40 trillion in 2024.
According to the report, AI could lead to significant increases in trade and GDP by 2040, with global trade projected to rise by 34 per cent to 37 per cent across different scenarios based on 'different degrees of policy and technological catch-up between low-, middle- and high-income economies. '
The WTO report also estimated that the global trade in these goods totalled US$2.3 trillion in 2023.
However, the report mentioned that for AI and trade to contribute to inclusive growth policies need to be in place to bridge the digital divide, invest in workforce skills, and maintain an open and predictable trading environment.
Speaking at the report launching session, the WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: "AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remain highly uneven."
Within societies, AI could upend labour markets, transforming some jobs while displacing others, she said, adding that managing such shifts demands investment in domestic policies to enhance education, skills, retraining and social safety nets.
"The ongoing political backlash against trade has much to do with underinvestment in such areas during these past three or four decades of globalization. We cannot afford to repeat this mistake with AI," she warned.
"With the right mix of trade, investment and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities in all economies. With the right frameworks, trade can play a central role in making AI work for all. The WTO is committed to supporting this effort," DG Okonjo-Iweala added.
Before formally launching the report, a closed-door press briefing took place where WTO's deputy Director-General Johanna Hill and report coordinators Marc Bacchetta, Emmanuelle Ganne and Ankai Xu talked to journalists.
They also explained the key features and highlights of the report.
Speaking at the briefing, Hill said uncertainty in trade policy weighs heavily on business confidence, investment and supply chains. Uncertainty remains one of the most disruptive forces in the global trading environment.
"These are certainly testing times for the multilateral trading system. But the fact that many WTO Members continue to respond to trade measures in line with the WTO rulebook is definitely a silver lining," she added.
According to the report, in a scenario in which low- and middle-income economies narrow their digital infrastructure gap with high-income economies by 50 per cent and adopt AI more widely, these economies are projected to see incomes rising by 15 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively.
The report also added that AI's impact on inclusive growth will also depend on the design of trade and trade-related policies. As trade-related AI challenges are rooted in broader policy issues, complementary policies in areas such as infrastructure, energy, education and government support, it suggested closer cooperation between the WTO and other international organisations to support broader global participation in the AI-driven economy.
The report described how domestic policies and international cooperation can shape the trade and AI relationship to favour inclusive economic growth.
WTO agreements, such as the ITA, the GATS, the TBT Agreement and the TRIPS agreement, already support the development and deployment of AI.
However, further WTO commitments on goods and services, such as broader participation in the ITA and updated GATS commitments, could make AI not only more inclusive but also more affordable.
munni_fe@yahoo.com
