The government claims the export-data mismatch won't change the size of Bangladesh's gross domestic product (GDP) and per-capita income, though economists think different about knock-on effect of the miscalculation.
In a release Tuesday, the ministry of finance said the central bank usually publishes info on export earnings based on the foreign currency actually received from abroad against export of goods and services.
And Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) considers the central bank's statistics while calculating the GDP, the release claims.
"Thus, the apprehension expressed in the newspapers recently regarding a reduction in GDP growth and per-capita income due to the fall of export earnings is not correct," the statement reads.
However, economists found the claim made by the finance ministry in the statement itself "incorrect".
They say there is no similarity between the export data the BBS uses in calculating the size of GDP and per-capita income and the receipt value produced by the central bank.
Dr Zahid Hussain, a former lead economist of the World Bank's Dhaka office, told the FE that the central bank in its data in the fiscal year 2022-23 showed Tk 5.051 trillion as export receipts while the BBS used Tk 5.908 trillion in GDP calculation which is 16.97- percent higher.
Similarly, in the fiscal year 2021-22, the Bangladesh Bank found Tk 4.536 trillion as export receipts whereas the BBS used Tk 5.166 trillion as export earnings, up by 13.89 per cent from the central-bank data, he said.
"So, the claim made by the MoF that BBS uses BB's data in GDP calculation is incorrect and the difference is quite high," he says the economist about the macroeconomic arithmetic, adding that a revision of the size of GDP and the per-capita income is "compulsory".
The central bank release also said that data had been reorganised in some cases of balance of payments, current account, and financial account for which there would be no such change on the overall balance of payments. The reorganised data on the balance of payments have already been published on the website of the Bangladesh Bank for all concerned.
Ahsan H Mansur, Executive Director, the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh, says if the BBS "really" uses the central bank's data, then there is no need of revision of size of GDP and the per-capita income.
However, he adds, if the BBS uses shipment data instead of actual export-receipt data, then both the GDP and per-capital income have to be revised.
Mr Mansur thinks the number in case of overall balance would not change, that is true. "But due to the reorganising of data the current account has gone to the negative territory. A big deficit of current account itself is a bad news," he told the FE correspondent.
He argues that a high current-account deficit means the country's economy is "in bad shape".
Terming it a "big concern", Mr Mansur says the high current-account deficit indicates that the country has been running through borrowing from others. "We had been assuming that we were self-dependent or borrowing very less but now it has become clear that we are borrowing a lot for a long a period."
He notes that the global rating agencies take into consideration the current-account position of the country and the big deficit will generate negative perception for the donors and lenders.
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