A veritable shrinkage of private-sector job market forces skilled and educated professionals to compromise their hard-earned expertise by accepting low-paid positions in fast-growing informal sectors.
Amid rising inflation and diminished job security within a sluggish investment climate, many experienced professionals are grappling with uncertainty in their employment prospects.
Market analysts suggest that job security in the private sector is increasingly threatened by myriad challenges facing both local and foreign investors.
Such an ambiance of insecurity is contributing to the growth of the informal economy and a rise in cash transactions.
Data from Bangladesh Bank (BB) indicate that cash transactions surged by 8.0 per cent in FY 23, despite the availability of various digital-transaction options, including Mobile Financial Services (MFS).
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the job market has stagnated, and in some cases, worsened as yet.
For instance, Rejaul Ahmed, a former teacher at an English-medium school in Dhaka's Eskaton area, lost his job when the school closed in 2020 amid a wave of lockdown.
In 2021, he launched an online business, sacrificing 12 years of teaching experience.
"I used to earn over Tk 35,000 per month as a schoolteacher. After losing my job, I was desperate to find a source of income to support my family," Ahmed says about the re-skilling and livelihood switch.
He now earns approximately Tk 20,000 per month and makes do with the pittance somehow.
Much the same goes with Nurul Ferdous, a mechanical engineer from BUET and a former top executive at a leading food-manufacturing company. He lost his job last year as part of the company's strategy to reduce operational costs.
He is now working for a small light-engineering factory in Manikganj.
"My skills, honed over 20 years, do not align with my current role, but I have to compromise both my salary and expertise," he laments, noting that he now receives only 30 per cent of his previous salary.
Economists and business leaders have criticized the previous government's employment and investment statistics, arguing they misrepresent the actual economic situation.
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) Labour Force Survey (LFS) 2022 reveals the size of the country's workforce as of 2022 as 71 million, up from 61 million in 2016-17.
The overall decline in the unemployment rate does not reflect healthy job creation, as opportunities for decent work are diminishing while the informal economy finds a boom-time.
AHM Shafiquzzaman, Secretary of the Ministry of Labour and Employment, acknowledges the uncertainty in employment generation owing to weak investment.
"We need to enhance the current law-and-order situation to restore investor confidence, as many are adopting a wait-and-see approach," he says.
He also notes that large business groups, which significantly contribute to the country's economy, are currently under government scrutiny, further complicating the job market.
Mohammad Iqbal Chowdhury, Chief Executive Officer of Lafarge Holcim, points out that job cuts in top positions have become a global trend due to business downturns.
"Typically, high-paid employees are targeted for cost-saving measures, with their responsibilities merged among existing staff," he explains.
The employment landscape largely hinges on company revenue, which has stagnated over the past two years, leading to a significant reduction in job openings.
Md Fazlul Hoque, former president of Bangladesh Employers Federation (BEF), foresees no respite in the poor job situation for at least the next six months.
"The current environment is unstable, with many large businesses facing scrutiny from law-enforcement agencies. New investments are unlikely, and existing investors are under considerable pressure," he told the FE.
The slow growth in the private sector over the past two years is expected to persist, in his view.
It has been found that high inflation rates have compelled many individuals to seek additional income, often in jobs that do not match their education or skills.
"Having a higher educational degree has become a burden when searching for decent employment. Low-paid jobs in the informal sector are often the only option in this contracting job market," remarked Ishtiaq Islam, a fresh graduate from North- South University.
Overall wage growth has lagged behind inflation from 2013-14 to 2022-23. According to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) data, the nominal wage rate increased by an average of 6.26 per cent during this period, while inflation consistently exceeded 7.0 per cent.
Between 2013-14 and 2022-23, wage growth in the agricultural, industrial, and services sectors had ranged from 5 per cent to 7.01 per cent, while inflation fluctuated between 7 per cent and 9.02 per cent, as analyzed from BBS data.
The share of the manufacturing sector in Bangladesh's total labour force fell to a record low of 11.26 per cent in 2022-23, down from 14.43 per cent in 2022.
Moreover, the agricultural sector's share of the labour force declined to 45.36 per cent in 2022, down from 47.30 per cent. Employment in the forestry, fisheries, minerals, and mining sectors also dropped significantly. The manufacturing sector shrank to 11.26 per cent from 12.34 per cent, and employment in commerce, hotels, and restaurants decreased from 16.45 per cent to 12.89 per cent. Meanwhile, the health, education, and public administration sectors saw a decline from 4.74 per cent to 4.24 per cent.
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