A balance of deterrence and diplomacy: A spectre of Cold War

The increasingly changing global geopolitical situation has lately prompted strategists and commentators around the world to warn of a looming Cold War. On the eve of the 25th anniversary of the fall of Berlin Wall (November 09, 1989), former Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev said on November 08 that the world was "on the brink of a new Cold War." He added: "Some are even saying that it has already begun."
However, an international wire agency quoting Cold War experts said that while they tend to agree that the current global situation is extremely dangerous, it is very different from the Cold War era of the yester years when 'two nuclear-armed superpowers faced off, only minutes away from an all-out global destruction'.
Meanwhile, from the just concluded G20 summit in Brisbane, Australia (from November 15-16), Western nations sent a firm message to Russia that it must stop its "unacceptable" meddling in Ukraine or face further sanctions. British Prime Minister David Cameron chose to act as a spokesperson for the Group this time. President Barack Obama, while still in Brisbane, also took the advantage of issuing another parting warning to Moscow at the end of the G20 summit (as reported by the agencies): 'Russian isolation would only deepen if it refuses to change course.'
During the same time Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested to a German interviewer that the West is provoking Russia into a new Cold War.
This scenario certainly spreads the gloom over resurfacing the Cold War mentality.
GEOPOLITICAL REBALANCING: Further, if one reads in the context of NATO C-in-C General Philip Breedlove's sounding a note of alarm earlier in November that Russian tanks and heavy artillery had crossed borders into Ukraine and proposed the eastern separatists to fight the Kiev government forces, the weather heated up. Of course, Russia promptly denied it and dubbed it as anti-Russian psy-war propaganda. Russian envoy to the European Union (EU) Vladimir Chizhov also chipped in more specifically: "…… the only Russian troops in Ukraine were the nine paratroopers who wandered across the border recently while on patrol…."
The latest anti-Russian tirade came from Australian PM Tony Abbot who claimed to have told Putin at the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation)  summit in Beijing (November 11-14) that Moscow should stop "trying to recreate the glories of tsarism or the old Soviet Union." This is, of course, being fanned by a section of western media who tend to enjoy humiliating the adversary.  
However, the Cold War experts, as quoted earlier, strongly differed. Instead, they see a period of geopolitical rebalancing after years of the United States assuming the role of the sole superpower.
The UN Security Council met recently, took note of the accusation and elections violating ceasefire in Ukraine and retake of rebel-held eastern parts, and ended without any resolution. The fragile ceasefire in Ukraine had somehow held, however uneasily, and facilitated both the parliamentary polls under Kiev government and separatist polls in the rebel-held eastern parts.     
'EUROPE TO BECOME IRRELEVANT': Former Russian President Gorbachev warned a Berlin symposium on security marking the 25th anniversary of the fall of Berlin War earlier on November 08 that Western policies toward Russia championed by Washington had led to the current crisis and "if the confrontation continues, Europe will be weakened and become irrelevant." He called upon the Western leaders to de-escalate tensions and meet Russia halfway to mend the current rift. He said the world was on the brink of a new Cold War in consequence of the US-led Western bloc's "short-sighted policies of seeking to impose one's will and fait accompli while ignoring the interests of one's partners."
Gorbachev presented a list of policies, including the expansion of NATO and the development of an anti-ballistic missile system, military interventions in Yugoslavia and Iraq, the West-backed secession of Kosovo, the crisis in Syria and others. And now, he warned, the Ukrainian crisis is a "blister turning into a bleeding, festering wound."        
The current prolonged economic crisis in Europe has been creating more problems within the European countries which are also raising tensions and adversely affecting mutual goodwill. Without elaboration, Gorbachev discussed it in his speech. Besides, part of this tension within the western camp has found expression in British media recently. While British PM David Cameron was attending G20 summit in Brisbane, British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond told the London-based Daily Telegraph that Britain will walk away from negotiations with European Union partners if its pleas for immigration reforms are ignored, raising the real possibility of leaving the bloc altogether. Hammond told the daily that the British public could vote to end the country's membership unless there was "substantial, meaningful reform."  
David Cameron had promised an in-out referendum for 2017 if his 'conservative Party wins next year's general election but has failed to win support for border reform from fellow European leaders'. According to a German news report, German Chancellor Angela Merkel last week warned her British counterpart that he was approaching a "point of no return" with the EU over his immigration proposals. Apparently, responding to Merkel, Hammond pointed out that there would be no turning back and Britain would be "prepared to stand up from the table and walk away" if its proposals were not considered.
These are very complicated statements made under regional and global geopolitical pressures as they keep propping up ceaselessly. However, one has to remember that while the US is the most powerful country, the era of lone superpower seems to have been over.   
SURPRISES IN BEIJING: The outcome of the two summit meetings ahead of APEC meeting in Beijing between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and President Obama added significance. In particular, Xi-Abe meeting witnessed a very important turn-around in their bilateral ties.  Besides, the Xi-Putin meeting added ever closer bilateral cooperation on their shared and converging trade, investment and geopolitical interests which in fact, deeply concerns the other two. These three separate summits between the world's most powerful leaders and players threw in new elements of challenges and possibilities into the world's geopolitical conundrum.      
 Japanese PM Abe said: "Together with President Xi, I would like to seek a right approach to Japan-China relations in the 21st century from a comprehensive and long-term perspective. I believe it is important to cooperate mutually at various levels on four points: (a) promoting mutual understanding between citizens; (b) further deepening economic relations; (c) cooperation in the East China Sea; and (d) stabilising security environment in East Asia."
To this Xi replied: "Based on the four basic documents between Japan and China and the recent four items on common ground, I would like to develop Japan-China relations in line with the concept of Mutually Beneficial Relationship based on Common Strategic Interests."  
A commentator in the Financial Times of London, Gideon Rachman wrote earlier this month without pinpointing the question of Cold War, that "over the longer term, the biggest challenge to US power is still a rising China, rather than a declining Russia or a disintegrating Middle East." However, he added that his own instinct says: "Russia is now the most important challenge. The rise of China is hugely significant but for the moment, it feels like a long-term process without any immediate risk of conflict with the US."
Rachman's conclusion provides an interesting insight to the on-going crisis: "…. (A)n angry nuclear-armed Russia intent on challenging US power, poses risks that we are only beginning to understand. Peace in Europe may depend on Washington striking exactly the right balance between deterrence and diplomacy."    US-CHINA SCENARIO:  Zhou Fabgyin, a professor at the Guangdong Research Institute for International Strategies, observed in a commentary  on the US President Obama's visit to Beijing last week ([email protected]) that Washington attached "great importance" to this visit. Why? He says, this was Obama's first visit to China since Chinese President Xi Jinping took office in 2013 and that Sino-US ties carry strategic significance.
But this visit can hardly lead to a long-term re-orientation of the bilateral relationship. The reason is that in his first working visit to the US in 2013, Xi Jinping offered to establish a "new type of great power relationship" between China and the US. Washington has not shown much interest and initiative, but entrenched its conventional attitude toward a rising China. Zhou believes that this visit is probably Obama's "last big chance" to cement the Sino-US relationship. If it does not work out as expected, the Sino-US relationship will probably see insipidness and banality in the next two years.
He says, over the last year, Chinese diplomacy has progressed more proactively, with many policies, initiatives and ideas kicking in, such as the Silk Road economic belt, the 21st century Silk Road, a new reciprocal policy for peripheral diplomacy, and the new Asian security concept. Now Beijing is becoming more tactful in dealing with the pressures from Washington, so the ball has been kicked back to the US, whose outdated mindset must be abandoned for a more proactive Sino-US relationship.
 

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