A key shift in the battleground

The US Presidential Election in 2024 is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in recent times, the result of which will depend on just a few important battleground states where polarised voter sentiment grows. This high-stakes race pits Vice President Kamala Harris-expected to replace the Democratic nominee-against former President Donald Trump. The election has immersed both candidates in a deep examination of their standing in key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. Each state brings into the mix its unique political dynamics and demographic shifts that could tilt the election in favour of one party or another.
With national polling suggesting a tight contest, Harris and Trump are within just a very small percentage of each other in many cases, less than a one per cent lead. The race, therefore, is deeply dependent on specific demographic groups and regional issues that define each battleground state. The broader national themes of economic stability, healthcare, immigration, and social justice are playing differentially in each region, reflecting unique priorities in local communities.
CHARTING THE SHIFTING LANDSCAPE: The 2024 presidential election of the United States is at an interesting juncture, with demographic shifts and polarised sentiments shaping the race in key battleground states. For Harris, as indeed for the Democratic Party, the road to victory lies with complex voter dynamics and various issue sets. In states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, small changes in voter mood may decide the outcome.
Perhaps most important, Michigan also captures the electoral issues that have long plagued Harris. The angry Muslim voters who sent them to Dearborn and Detroit reflect the broader trend of the effects of party policies and strategies to engage active voters. If Harris manages to placate them, she still has a shot at holding onto crucial support. If not, Michigan-and quite probably the election-will go Republican.
As one political commentator so eloquently put it, "Elections are not just battles over issues but over values, trust, and the vision of the future." This election can be a true reflection of the voter dynamics in Michigan, and within the American electorate, this is a struggle that asks both candidates to reconcile their platforms with the evolving priorities of a changing nation.
OVERVIEW OF NATIONAL POLLING: At the national level, recent data, from among others FiveThirtyEight and The New York Times, depicts a very competitive landscape in which Harris and Trump each possesses roughly equal support among a deeply divided electorate. Harris is banking on a platform of unity and progressivism, while Trump still continuously harps on a return to economic "stability" and appeal to traditional conservative values, ones which continue to find purchase with his stalwart base and a swath of economically strained voters wary of the administration in power.
As one leading political analyst said, "The 2024 election is not just a referendum on policy, but on trust-a vital factor that would make all the difference in the final count of votes."
BATTLEGROUND STATES: This is generally regarded as a bellwether state, and in Pennsylvania, the voters are starkly divided. Trump's message of restoring blue-collar jobs, making America first in industries, is well-received in the rural and industrial western part of the state. But for Harris, the work focused much on metropolitan areas such as Philadelphia, with union members, African Americans, and younger voters serving as backbones for continued Democratic support. The polls showed that gains were made by Trump, though, in suburban areas, where economic and health issues remain the top issues. As a political analyst, Joel Fisher puts it, "For Harris to secure Pennsylvania, she needs to hold onto the cities and make inroads in the suburbs, where undecided voters could make or break her chances."
The state of Wisconsin is characterized by both rural and urban voters. The Harris-Trump contest is neck-and-neck. Harris has been actively campaigning in Milwaukee and Madison, reaching out on health care, climate change, and economic fairness. Trump's is more rural-community-based, where his pitch for reduced government regulations coupled with agricultural support has the most following. Polling by Marquette Law School underlines how healthcare and jobs in manufacturing remain key concerns of Wisconsinites, and Harris will need to improve her standing with suburban voters if she is going to make up for Trump's rural edge.
That made Georgia in 2020 one of those curious battlegrounds; it certainly is in 2024, too. Harris has placed a heavy emphasis on mobilizing both African-American voters and suburban Atlanta, where demographics continue to shift in favour of the Democrats. Trump has held onto rural Georgia, though, where his conservative values sound loud. According to Emerson College polling, the youth and minority vote in Georgia may be decisive, especially if Harris can mobilize these groups around issues such as voting rights, economic opportunity, and social justice. "Georgia's role in 2024 could redefine its identity as a Southern stronghold," said Georgia State University professor David Martinez, "potentially paving the way for a more progressive state government in years to come.
The drastic changes in Arizona's demography have shaped its changed political scenario. Harris's campaign is focusing on urban Latino voters, especially on key issues like healthcare, education, and immigration reform. On the other hand, Trump's conservative agenda on border control attracts Arizona's conservative voters, particularly in the rural parts. The CBS News polling shows both candidates coveting the young Latino vote in Arizona as a decisive bloc, with voter preference roughly evenly divided. Harris will have to maintain the momentum of urban voters as Trump shores up his base in rural areas if she is going to take Arizona.
The most critical issue continues to be the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic among Nevadans, particularly in Las Vegas, for which so much of its economy is driven by hospitality. Harris has emphasized economic recovery and job security, notably through union-backed policies and support of access to healthcare. Trump is trying to appeal to small business owners with promises of lower taxes and deregulation. Independent polling in Nevada shows both candidates neck and neck, while the state's voters are concerned about job security, access to health care, and housing costs. For Harris, winning Nevada requires addressing tangible economic anxieties among a very diverse voting population.
SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON MUSLIM VOTER LANDSCAPE: Among all the battleground states, Michigan could easily be singled out as one of the most critical. Not only is Michigan's electoral landscape highly weighted, but also the voting trends of its sizable Muslim population-in particular, the Arab-American and South Asian communities in cities such as Dearborn and Detroit-could determine the outcome. Traditionally Democratic-leaning, these groups are revaluating their support given the Biden-Harris administration's position on Middle Eastern policies, particularly with regard to Israel and its ongoing conflict in Gaza.
The latest poll from the Arab American Institute also revealed a degree of frustration on the part of Michigan Muslims, many of whom would like to vote for third-party candidates or simply not vote at all. Dawud Walid, executive director of CAIR Michigan, puts it best: "Our community feels disillusioned, and there's a palpable sense that our voices have not been heard." It was also an extension of frustrations broadly felt with the Democratic Party over foreign policy and an overall sense of alignment to values considered paramount by so many within the Muslim community.
Michigan's Muslim community played a crucial role in Biden's narrow victory in 2020, and without active outreach and policy alignment, Harris risks losing their support. Michigan boasts a critical 16 electoral votes, and if the Biden-Harris campaign fails to reconnect with these voters, it could flip into Republican control. The ripple effects of such a shift are bound to impact other battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where the same sentiments among minority voters could also be a concern.
DEMOCRATIC STRATEGY: Due to these challenges, the Harris campaign started making targeted outreach to Michigan by holding discussions with community leaders to alleviate their concerns and explain the policies her administration would pursue. Her campaign has issued statements since then about humanitarian crises in Gaza as a way to balance foreign policy concerns with domestic policies seeking to assure healthcare access, education, and economic opportunity to minority communities. These actions, however, have been received with mixed feelings, for while some community members have expressed gratitude for the outreach, others have seen the gesture as not good enough.
Outreach by itself cannot restore the lost trust of its disenchanted voters for the party; it must be a commitment through policy. As recently said by The Washington Post, "The key to winning isn't simply policy alignment but a shared vision of what the country stands for." In Michigan, Harris has to not only bridge the fissures created by the recent foreign policy postures but also project effectively a platform that meets local and international concerns.

Dr Serajul I Bhuiyan is professor and former chair of the Department of Journalism and Mass Communications at Savannah State University, Savannah, Georgia, USA.
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