A task force to cope with the looming recession

Bangladesh could largely avoid the effects of the first global recession in 2008 because of its relatively insular position in the global economy or less linkages with the global economy. But whether it can go on remaining unaffected when another round of recession looms large even though the advanced countries have hardly recovered from the effect of the first one, is another matter. Bangladesh produces mainly apparels for low segments of the market the demand for which is usually inelastic. But over the longer term or if battered conditions of many western economies linger and reduction in state supports there for people translate into much depleted disposable income for them, then the demand for products like those of Bangladesh's exports - garments item - may decline. Bangladesh's garments sector is most likely to feel the pinch as the grip of economic bad times in the main buying countries is becoming tighter. It is high time for Bangladesh to be diversifying its export market for garments products by progressively giving up its reliance mainly on the western countries. Some successes have been attained to this end. But much more needs to be done and done quickly before the expected second round of recession hits the western economies with greater force. Limited amounts of Bangladeshi garments are presently going to Indian and Chinese markets. But there is good prospect for our garments to win large and sustainable market shares in the two giant Asian countries provided the government of Bangladesh plays out its role properly and promptly in these matters. Manpower export is a pillar of the Bangladesh economy. The bulk of our manpower export is centred on the Middle Eastern and North African Arab countries. If the recession in Western countries deepen, then the Arab countries could experience a reduction in the demand for oil and earnings from it which is their main export item. They could, thus, postpone or call off already scheduled construction works squeezing the demand for the overseas workers including those of Bangladesh in the region. Hence, Bangladesh has to be very agile from now on and push to the optimum efforts to go on sending manpower to the Middle-Eastern region by making the most of the current opportunities and the ones to arise next.