Abu Dhabi calling: WTO to deliver

Around three decades ago, senior representatives and officials of 123 nations gathered in the Moroccan city of Marrakesh, also a town strongly linked with medieval history, to establish a global body for making and updating international trade rules and resolving trade disputes among the nations. They adopted the Marrakesh Declaration, which led to the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO) as a successor of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), a provisional agreement and organisation since 1947. GATT members formally signed the Marrakesh Agreement on April 15, 1994, concluding GATT's Uruguay Round trade negotiations. Thus, the WTO replaced GATT as the international organisation, whereas the General Agreement still exists as the WTO's umbrella treaty for trade in goods.
Almost 30 years later, 164 members of the WTO are set to meet for the organisation's highest decision-making body formally, the ministerial conference, in Abu Dhabi of the United Arab Emirates for four days starting tomorrow (Monday). It is the 13th session of the conference, abbreviated as MC13, where the trade ministers are expected to reach a consensus on some critical issues of international trade. Though many changes in global trade and geo-politics have taken place since the inception of the WTO, and a good number of new elements and issues have emerged during the period, referring to the agreement establishing the body seems necessary. The draft declaration of the MC13 thus said: "Our Thirteenth Session takes place as we mark the 30th anniversary since the establishment of the WTO. On this occasion, we reaffirm the principles and objectives enshrined in the Marrakesh Agreement and underline the critical importance of the rules-based, non-discriminatory, open, fair, inclusive, equitable and transparent multilateral trading system with the WTO at its core." It also added that during these 30 years, WTO members have put various efforts into fulfilling the agreement's objectives, and some meaningful progress has also been made. Against the backdrop, one valid question is how successful the organisation is. A quick answer: WTO has demonstrated mixed success, meaning the body is also loaded with many failures.
One key benchmark to evaluate the success and failure of the organisation is the outcomes of the ministerial conferences. The first conference took place in Singapore in 1996. Though it is a biennial conference, the members cannot always maintain the schedule. For instance, after MC5 took place in Hong Kong in 2005, the sixth session of the conference was held four years later in 2009. Again, five years after the MC11 in Buenos Aires, the MC12 or the last one was held in Geneva in 2022. Again, not all the conferences concluded with concrete outcomes. For instance, MC11 ended without any ministerial declaration. Generally, the ministerial declaration, along with ministerial decisions combined, is known as the package of the host city, like the Bali Package (in 2013).
A lot of background work has to be done before the formal gathering of the trade ministers and senior representatives so that they can make the final decision within the designated days. In the ministerial conference, they come with their respective countries' political mandates. So, many issues were primarily agreed on in Geneva in the presence of the ambassadors and country representatives before the final session take-off, sometimes not getting the final nod in the ministerial conference. Countries have divergent interests, and there are always sharp differences among themselves in various areas. Thus, it is hard to reach a consensus on any issue. Although the final decision is considered a consensus, many countries do not agree. However, they have nothing to do in the face of pressure created by powerful nations through political and diplomatic channels. Nevertheless, the formal negotiation goes on.
The Abu Dhabi ministerial conference, scheduled to take place from 26 to February 29 (and may extended for a day if required), is expected to make some concrete decisions on critical issues like the e-commerce moratorium, fisheries subsidies, agriculture and food security, WTO reform, and post-graduation support measures for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) including Bangladesh, and plurilateral deals on investment facilitation and e-commerce. Accession of two LDCs, Timor Leste and Comoros, will also be finalised increasing the WTO's total membership up to 166 countries.
Developed nations are pressing to extend the e-commerce moratorium, which means the 'no tariff on electronic transactions' will continue. Many developing countries oppose the move and demand that the moratorium should go so that they can impose tariffs to offset the foregone revenue.
Talks are also ongoing to make decisions on further reduction of harmful fisheries subsidies that lead to the depletion of global fish stocks. In MC12, members agreed on partially banning subsidies for illegal, unreported, or unregulated fishing. As two-thirds of the members have yet to ratify the deal, the agreement has not come into force. MC13 seeks to agree on prohibiting subsidies for any developing nation whose global fish catch share crosses 0.80 per cent, which is already opposed by the developing countries.
One of the critical issues is India's persistent demand for permanent rules for public stockholding (PSH) of food grains. The Indian government purchases food grains from farmers at above-market prices to support them in the name of food security, a subsidy under WTO rules. At the Bali ministerial in 2013, India got approval to continue the subsidy, and a decision was also made to reach a deal by 2015 for a so-called permanent solution to the PSH of foods. As no such decision has been taken so far, India is now trying to make a bigger deal covering all agriculture programs and for all developing countries. India has also threatened to block any outcome at MC13 unless there is an agreement on the matter, which is criticised by many other countries. They have already argued that India is the world's largest rice exporter and a major subsidy provider, breaching the WTO rules.
Another critical issue is the agenda of WTO reform and making the dispute settlement system functional. Any breakthrough is unlikely in the issue in Abu Dhabai as it is vast and complex.
A plurilateral agreement on electronic commerce, currently joined by 90 countries, may get a nod in the conference. Another one on investment facilitation, where more than 110 nations are now parties, is also likely to get endorsement. For Bangladesh and other LDCs, getting an extension of various support measures for the graduating LDCs is critical in MC13. Only modest progress is on the horizon so far.

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