Accurate statistics for sound planning
Saturday, 23 October 2010
Bangladesh observed Wednesday last the World Statistics Day sponsored by the UN for the first time together with the rest of the world. The occasion is a befitting one to look into the great importance of statistics for various planning exercises. Accurate statistics is the base for planning, be it for the government, the private sector or the individual. Flawed statistics influence decision making --including vital ones involving expenditure and investment-- leading to undesirable outcome. For example, let us take the case of the official population control programme. The spending and devising of strategies for the same will depend on obtaining very correct statistics from the fields such as the fertility rate of couples, their acceptance rate of the planned parenthood concept and contraceptive use, the availability of infrastructures to help with family planning requirements, etc.
Only if the statistical details about these phenomena are properly established, then policy planners can be in a position to increase or decrease allocations for different areas under the population control programmes or revise the thrust areas or strategies substantially by relying on the statistical information. But the outcome can be otherwise causing serious lapses or failures if they have to design programmes based on doubtful or insufficient statistics.
Take, for instance, another example of a company in the private sector wishing to start a new business. It must be able to rely on its own market studies about the demand for the product it wishes to introduce, the position or market shares of competitors in the field, etc., to be able to successfully launch its product. The entrepreneur not only relies for the information at the pre-launch stage from his own investigation but also from official data sources if the same are available.
Hence it is imperative that data generated from its own source and that from government department are precise and do reflect the reality. If this does not happen and the investment decision is taken on the basis of inaccurate data, then loss for the business would be a certainty. Again, another example could be the importation of food grains. The same must be based on very correct estimates of food grains production in the country, the amount of shortfall compared to demand and the associated factors. If statistical information about these things cannot be flawlessly obtained, then wastages can occur from importing more than what are necessary causing drain of precious foreign currency.
Thus, whatever the field, the importance of collating dependable statistics, cannot be ignored in the least for the sake of optimum economic performance. But statistical accuracy continues to be doubted in some cases in Bangladesh. The central official body for collecting statistics, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) prepares statistical information for use by the government in different spheres. But the same are then found in some cases to be in conflict with data gathered by other government agencies or private organisations. This discrepancy painfully shows up the general problem of depending on statistical information and the hazards involved in responding on the strength of such information.
Clearly therefore, the entire statistics preparation procedures at the level of the government, the private sector and other institutional bodies, need to become much more efficient in all or nearly all cases. The skills to be improved should encompass not only upgrading of individual competence. The same must essentially also include areas such as creating wider samples or data-bases where these would be seen to be rightly justified for proper data collection and dissemination.
Only if the statistical details about these phenomena are properly established, then policy planners can be in a position to increase or decrease allocations for different areas under the population control programmes or revise the thrust areas or strategies substantially by relying on the statistical information. But the outcome can be otherwise causing serious lapses or failures if they have to design programmes based on doubtful or insufficient statistics.
Take, for instance, another example of a company in the private sector wishing to start a new business. It must be able to rely on its own market studies about the demand for the product it wishes to introduce, the position or market shares of competitors in the field, etc., to be able to successfully launch its product. The entrepreneur not only relies for the information at the pre-launch stage from his own investigation but also from official data sources if the same are available.
Hence it is imperative that data generated from its own source and that from government department are precise and do reflect the reality. If this does not happen and the investment decision is taken on the basis of inaccurate data, then loss for the business would be a certainty. Again, another example could be the importation of food grains. The same must be based on very correct estimates of food grains production in the country, the amount of shortfall compared to demand and the associated factors. If statistical information about these things cannot be flawlessly obtained, then wastages can occur from importing more than what are necessary causing drain of precious foreign currency.
Thus, whatever the field, the importance of collating dependable statistics, cannot be ignored in the least for the sake of optimum economic performance. But statistical accuracy continues to be doubted in some cases in Bangladesh. The central official body for collecting statistics, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) prepares statistical information for use by the government in different spheres. But the same are then found in some cases to be in conflict with data gathered by other government agencies or private organisations. This discrepancy painfully shows up the general problem of depending on statistical information and the hazards involved in responding on the strength of such information.
Clearly therefore, the entire statistics preparation procedures at the level of the government, the private sector and other institutional bodies, need to become much more efficient in all or nearly all cases. The skills to be improved should encompass not only upgrading of individual competence. The same must essentially also include areas such as creating wider samples or data-bases where these would be seen to be rightly justified for proper data collection and dissemination.