Afghan war: When will it end?
settlement is evolved accommodating the | Wednesday, 21 December 2011
settlement is evolved accommodating the
The Afghan tangle seems to be quite intractable even as the United States-led NATO would like to believe that the overall condition is going their way and a final settlement would be available in the form of their victory in not too distant a future. However, they are reluctant to give any timeframe for the win as they too are conscious of the complications of the war in a country which remains a battlefield for last many years under different regimes and various phases involving the big powers. Two issues of late have further complicated the Afghan crisis. Pakistan, a big stakeholder in the tangle, has boycotted the recent talks in Bonn on the Afghan war and this would not help reach a military settlement of the hostilities since the country is involved as the main regional ally of the US fighting the Islamic radicals "Talebans". Secondly, the "Talebans" in Pakistan are in touch with the Islamabad government for reducing, if not cessation of their mutual hostilities and some progress has reportedly been made on the issue. Definitely, this will not be relished by Washington, which provides substantial assistance to Islamabad for fighting the Islamic radicals within Pakistan and supporting the fight against the "Talebans" in the neighbouring Afghanistan. The Pakistan-US ties are increasingly coming under strain stemming from a variety of factors and this disturbing element along with two other new developments have added new complexities in the Afghan scenario. Following the killing of Al-Queda leader Osama bin Laden inside Pakistan by the American commandoes in May, this year, the "Talebans" in Afghanistan and also in Pakistan were in disarray and the NATO forces gained considerable success in the war including making inroads in such areas like opposition stronghold of "Kandahar". However, the "Talebans" appeared to have overcome the setbacks to some degree as they began launching fresh attacks. Most daring of such attacks was the killing of president Hamid Karzai's brother and more importantly, downing of an American helicopter killing 30 US soldiers along with some Afghan troops. This sent shock waves to the US and the NATO, who have vowed to finish the war as soon as possible. But the ground realities are not favorable for a NATO win and the situation remains rather complicated with no sign that a denouement is round the corner. The helicopter incident had come close on the heels of two other daring incidents committed by the "Talebans" targeting the key figures of the Karzai administration. The brother of president Karzai was gunned down and later the governor of the "Kandahar" was also killed, and these two incidents sent tremor down the spines of the local Karzai government. Fears continued to grip important persons in the government about their safety despite being well protected and authorities in Kabul and elsewhere have now clamped a near fool-proof security arrangements surrounding key figures. Nevertheless, incidents continue to occur and the situation is being marked by increased tension and belligerence with no sign of making the ground congenial for withdrawal of the troops. President Obama had announced that 10,000 American troops will be withdrawn from Afghanistan by 2011 end and another 23,000 will be taken back by the end of the next year. Nearly 1,50,000 foreign soldiers are now stationed in the country fighting the radical Islamic fighters and casualties are taking place in both sides. The NATO is planning to pull out all troops from the country by 2014 by handing the task of security to the Afghans and they believe Hamid Karzai's administration is preparing itself to take over the charge on due course. Following the announcement of president Obama, French president Nicholas Sarkozy also announced withdrawal of his troops from Afghanistan within a time table. President Obama is under pressure at home for an early end of the Afghan tangle and bring back the American soldiers. He gave a pledge to the voters before the last elections in this regard and trying to push the same as the next presidential polls are drawing nearer. US and allies believe that killing of Osama Bin Laden by the US commandoes deep inside Pakistan in early May, this year, has drastically changed the war situation in Afghanistan and it would be now a matter of time that the NATO accomplishes its cherished objective of defeating the "Talebans". There is strong basis for such an assessment since there is hardly any doubt that Osama's death delivered a severe blow to the Islamic radicals even though they vowed to avenge the killing through enhancing the intensity of the fighting. But the insurgents are not taking things lying down despite their losses and the helicopter and some other incidents appears to have emboldened them in their fight against what they describe the foreign powers and their local "puppets". The war-situation suggests that Afghan war could be a never-ending conflict unless some kind of political settlement is evolved accommodating the stakes of major sides as far as possible. Indeed, this is a complex and too difficult task. Then again, battle field condition clearly indicates that military solution of the crisis is unlikely to be achieved soon. The logical conclusion under this situation appears that the Afghanistan is bleeding to white. Certainly, the cooperation and coordination between the United States and Pakistan, it's main regional ally in the fight against the Islamic radicals in the Afghanistan, is a key element for success of the war. This cooperation was going well with Pakistan taking active participation in the war against the "Talebans" in its own soil and extending full support to the NATO in Afghanistan. But now, the pattern is changing as the Islamabad-Washington ties are coming under serious misunderstanding. Besides, other elements of uneasiness are also being added in the Afghan tangle. As such, it is difficult to predict the course of the war although the strong NATO is gaining grounds. The Bonn meeting remained stuck to the earlier position that troops from Afghanistan would be withdrawn by 2014 and the Afghan security services will take over the reign by that time. But the big question that hovers around is - will be finally possible? ................................................... E-mail: [email protected]
The Afghan tangle seems to be quite intractable even as the United States-led NATO would like to believe that the overall condition is going their way and a final settlement would be available in the form of their victory in not too distant a future. However, they are reluctant to give any timeframe for the win as they too are conscious of the complications of the war in a country which remains a battlefield for last many years under different regimes and various phases involving the big powers. Two issues of late have further complicated the Afghan crisis. Pakistan, a big stakeholder in the tangle, has boycotted the recent talks in Bonn on the Afghan war and this would not help reach a military settlement of the hostilities since the country is involved as the main regional ally of the US fighting the Islamic radicals "Talebans". Secondly, the "Talebans" in Pakistan are in touch with the Islamabad government for reducing, if not cessation of their mutual hostilities and some progress has reportedly been made on the issue. Definitely, this will not be relished by Washington, which provides substantial assistance to Islamabad for fighting the Islamic radicals within Pakistan and supporting the fight against the "Talebans" in the neighbouring Afghanistan. The Pakistan-US ties are increasingly coming under strain stemming from a variety of factors and this disturbing element along with two other new developments have added new complexities in the Afghan scenario. Following the killing of Al-Queda leader Osama bin Laden inside Pakistan by the American commandoes in May, this year, the "Talebans" in Afghanistan and also in Pakistan were in disarray and the NATO forces gained considerable success in the war including making inroads in such areas like opposition stronghold of "Kandahar". However, the "Talebans" appeared to have overcome the setbacks to some degree as they began launching fresh attacks. Most daring of such attacks was the killing of president Hamid Karzai's brother and more importantly, downing of an American helicopter killing 30 US soldiers along with some Afghan troops. This sent shock waves to the US and the NATO, who have vowed to finish the war as soon as possible. But the ground realities are not favorable for a NATO win and the situation remains rather complicated with no sign that a denouement is round the corner. The helicopter incident had come close on the heels of two other daring incidents committed by the "Talebans" targeting the key figures of the Karzai administration. The brother of president Karzai was gunned down and later the governor of the "Kandahar" was also killed, and these two incidents sent tremor down the spines of the local Karzai government. Fears continued to grip important persons in the government about their safety despite being well protected and authorities in Kabul and elsewhere have now clamped a near fool-proof security arrangements surrounding key figures. Nevertheless, incidents continue to occur and the situation is being marked by increased tension and belligerence with no sign of making the ground congenial for withdrawal of the troops. President Obama had announced that 10,000 American troops will be withdrawn from Afghanistan by 2011 end and another 23,000 will be taken back by the end of the next year. Nearly 1,50,000 foreign soldiers are now stationed in the country fighting the radical Islamic fighters and casualties are taking place in both sides. The NATO is planning to pull out all troops from the country by 2014 by handing the task of security to the Afghans and they believe Hamid Karzai's administration is preparing itself to take over the charge on due course. Following the announcement of president Obama, French president Nicholas Sarkozy also announced withdrawal of his troops from Afghanistan within a time table. President Obama is under pressure at home for an early end of the Afghan tangle and bring back the American soldiers. He gave a pledge to the voters before the last elections in this regard and trying to push the same as the next presidential polls are drawing nearer. US and allies believe that killing of Osama Bin Laden by the US commandoes deep inside Pakistan in early May, this year, has drastically changed the war situation in Afghanistan and it would be now a matter of time that the NATO accomplishes its cherished objective of defeating the "Talebans". There is strong basis for such an assessment since there is hardly any doubt that Osama's death delivered a severe blow to the Islamic radicals even though they vowed to avenge the killing through enhancing the intensity of the fighting. But the insurgents are not taking things lying down despite their losses and the helicopter and some other incidents appears to have emboldened them in their fight against what they describe the foreign powers and their local "puppets". The war-situation suggests that Afghan war could be a never-ending conflict unless some kind of political settlement is evolved accommodating the stakes of major sides as far as possible. Indeed, this is a complex and too difficult task. Then again, battle field condition clearly indicates that military solution of the crisis is unlikely to be achieved soon. The logical conclusion under this situation appears that the Afghanistan is bleeding to white. Certainly, the cooperation and coordination between the United States and Pakistan, it's main regional ally in the fight against the Islamic radicals in the Afghanistan, is a key element for success of the war. This cooperation was going well with Pakistan taking active participation in the war against the "Talebans" in its own soil and extending full support to the NATO in Afghanistan. But now, the pattern is changing as the Islamabad-Washington ties are coming under serious misunderstanding. Besides, other elements of uneasiness are also being added in the Afghan tangle. As such, it is difficult to predict the course of the war although the strong NATO is gaining grounds. The Bonn meeting remained stuck to the earlier position that troops from Afghanistan would be withdrawn by 2014 and the Afghan security services will take over the reign by that time. But the big question that hovers around is - will be finally possible? ................................................... E-mail: [email protected]