After Rana Plaza, what comes next?

On April 24, 2013 the Rana Plaza, an eight-storied commercial building, collapsed at Savar off Dhaka city. On May 13, just 21 days after the accident, search for the dead ended with the death toll standing at 1,131. Approximately 2,515 people were rescued from inside the collapsed building. It is the deadliest accident in the country's garment sector. According to BGMEA (Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association) sources, a total of 2,760 people were working in five factories inside the building at the time of the collapse. Reports from other sources put the figure at 3,900. Cracks in the building columns appeared the day before, but the authorities ignored the impending danger. They ordered the reluctant garment workers in. When the work was going on in full gear, the building collapsed all on a sudden during the morning rush hour.
WHY THE BUILDING COLLAPSED: According to an assessment report of the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC, 2013), the column sizes of the Rana Plaza were comparatively small, if compared to a standard 8-9-storied industrial building and it might have been the cause of the collapse. Storing heavy equipment on upper floors, poor workmanship and the use of low-strength materials also led to the collapse. The ill-constructed building was built on marshy land filled in with garbage and loose soil. After the tragedy, it was also alleged that the Rana Plaza was constructed by following a faulty design and using poor-quality construction materials in violation of related rules.
SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS, VULNERABILITY OF DHAKA AND OUR CAPACITY: The Rana Plaza collapse has exposed how unprepared the government, factory owners and other relevant service providing agencies are for any such disaster. A single building collapse killed 1,131 people and wounded more than 2,000 workers while the government's 'all-out action' took around 21 days for completing the search and rescue operation. Logically, curiosity grows as to if a moderate tremor hits the country and thousands of buildings collapse, then how long the government will take to finish their search and rescue operation with this level of preparation lacking necessary equipment.
It is feared that Dhaka, one of the most populous cities in the world, would witness a series of disasters in coming years due to destruction of the city's environment caused by the rapid unplanned urbanisation and lack of good governance. It is reported that Dhaka will become the fifth largest city in the world by 2030 in terms of population. Dhaka city is also located in an earthquake-prone zone. According to the earthquake disaster risk index, Dhaka is the most vulnerable among top 20 cities in the world.
QUAKES IN BANGLADESH: Earthquake is a major threat to urban-built environment. Although Bangladesh has not experienced a major earthquake in over a century, recently an escalation in seismic activity has been observed.
However, a strong earthquake of 8.6-magnitude occurred in Assam on August 15 in 1950, killing 1,526 people. Another 8.1-magnitude quake hit Assam on June 12 in 1897, killing 1500 people. The casualties were less because of low density of population and a fewer number of concrete structures at that time.
The observatory at the BUET (Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology)  recorded 86 tremors of over 4.0 magnitude on the Richter scale during January 2006 to May 2009. These minor tremors indicate the possibility of much more powerful earthquakes in the country. According to a seismic zoning map (BUET), 43 per cent areas in Bangladesh can be rated high risk zones, 41 per cent moderate and 16 per cent low. The high risk zones include major population belts such as Chittagong, Dhaka, Rangpur, Bogra, Mymensingh, Comilla, Rajshahi and Sylhet. An Oxfam study shows (2012) there were more than 130 instances of minor seismic disturbance during 2007-2009. Eight tremors of the magnitude of 4 on the Richter scale occurred during 2000-2010.
CAPITAL IN TROUBLE: Bangladesh is situated in a high-risk zone for earthquake and an unprecedented human disaster may occur in the country anytime in the event of even a moderate to heavy tremor. A powerful earthquake needs at least 100 to 150 years to originate in a particular region and in that sense it is overdue for Bangladesh and parts of Assam, as 112 years have passed by since a heavy tremor from the Dawki Fault hit the region. Dhaka is more vulnerable to an earthquake due to its geological location and both its human and economic exposure. According to a study, about 78,323 buildings will be destroyed completely, if a 6-magnitude earthquake shakes Dhaka. In case of a 7.5-magnitude earthquake, about 72,316 buildings in the capital will be damaged totally and 53,166 others partially. The number will stand at 238,164 across the country by an 8.5-magnitude tremor.
There will be a loss to the tune of about US$ 1.1 billion resulting from only structural damage in the event of a 7.5-magnitude earthquake. About 30 million tonnes of debris, equal to 2,880,000 truckloads (25 tonnes per truck), will be generated, if a 6-magnitude earthquake jolts the city. According to a study, at least 10 major hospitals and 90 schools in the capital will be destroyed completely and another 241 hospitals and clinics, 30 police stations and four fire stations partially in case of a 7.5-magnitude quake.
PREPARED FOR THE WORST: Considering the nature of the entire city's vulnerability to earthquake, the government of Bangladesh has undertaken a number of initiatives to minimise the loss and damage any possible disaster can cause. Analysing the seismic data, the government has already prepared the earthquake risk maps of Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet city corporations and similar mapping projects are under way for some of sub-regions. The Standing Order on Disaster (SOD) was updated in 2010 to ascertain duties and responsibilities of relevant ministries, departments and agencies to reduce the disaster risk and damage.
The Ministry of Housing and Public Works is responsible for enforcing the Bangladesh National Building Code to make structures earthquake-resilient. The government launched an initiative under the Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP) to form an emergency force of 62,000 community volunteers across the country to carry out rescue operations immediately after any disaster-like earthquake. The government has also taken a step to procure equipment under the 'Procurement of Equipment for Search and Rescue Operation and Other Disasters' to carry out rescue operation immediately after any disaster. It has already procured equipment worth Tk 600 million (60 crore) and handed them over to the concerned agencies.
POOR CAPACITY TO DEAL WITH QUAKE: Although the government has taken significant initiatives, the preparedness is far too inadequate to address any disaster aftermath in view of the country's vulnerability to an earthquake. Many risk factors like unplanned urbanisation remain. People have no proper knowledge about tremors and citizens have no idea as to what they have to do in such a situation. The government has decided to create a pool of 62,000 community volunteers to carry out rescue operations immediately after a major earthquake. But in four years since announcing the scheme, they could train merely a fraction - 12,000 - of the intended number.
On the other hand, inefficiency and lack of coordination among different government bodies and also between the government and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) are also considered as big challenges. Debris management will become a serious challenge, if a tremor strikes. A single building collapse (Rana Plaza) generated about 7,000 tonnes of debris and nearly 21 days were needed to complete the rescue operation. If an earthquake like that in 1897 hits the country, about 300 million tonnes of debris will be generated and the first task will be to clear roads leading to and out of cities and towns before any rescue drive commences. A Contingency Plan is yet to be tested while a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for the organisations, departments and institutions are yet to be developed.       
MORE STEPS NEEDED TO FACE DISASTERS: So the question remains-how prepared is the government to face the worst possible scenario following a disaster like an earthquake or a severe flood?  
A coordination mechanism should be developed involving different ministries and NGOs so that special guidelines could be prepared and disseminated and extensive mass awareness programmes be launched. The awareness programmes must span all strata of society including city-dwellers, government officials, municipality officials, politicians, engineers, architects, designers, builders and medical people. The government must enforce the Building Construction Act and the Building Construction Regulation and attach importance to a policy and nominate an authority to implement the Building Construction Regulation. Through the implementation of Bangladesh National Building Code (BNBC), casualties and the overall damage can be minimised. Initiatives should be taken to demolish old and highly risky buildings as a first step to minimise casualties during any such natural disasters, followed by their retrofitting to make the vulnerable buildings earthquake-tolerant.
RECOMMENDATIONS: The Rana Plaza collapse reminds us of how fragile our buildings are. In view of the tragedy, a few recommendations are made below as to what can be done in Bangladesh to reduce the impact of any such accident:   
n Ensuring proper implementation of Bangladesh National Building Code and its monitoring and developing an implementation framework and a mechanism as well as establishing a proper authority to oversee the implementation.
n Increasing the capacity of emergency response agencies by honing their skills and providing them with equipment alongside ensuring their responsibilities and coordination and regular financial allocations for them.
n Disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures should be institutionalised in every government institution and at every level, especially in the urban context.
n The government should emphasise greater involvement of public and private sectors in implementing DRR measures.
n Increasing preparedness and awareness of the communities. The media can play an important role along with other stakeholders.   
Finally, we never expect any such accident or any major earthquake anywhere in the country, but preparedness, awareness and governance could contribute to reducing the loss of lives and properties.
Sonya Syafitri is Project Manager for Urban DRR at Oxfam and Mohammed Norul Alam Raju is Programme Officer for Urban DRR at Oxfam. The article has been developed with           support from Md. Rafiqul Islam of UNB. [email protected]