After the coup: Thailand's rolling revolution
Tuesday, 14 August 2007
Victor Mallet
THESE are strange times in Thailand. The old certainties of the once vigorous south-east Asian kingdom have given way to doubt and confusion. The Thai economy, for all its reputation as an engine of the post-war Asian "miracle", is growing peculiarly slowly. With domestic investors reluctant to spend, Thailand's 65m people will be lucky to see gross domestic product expansion of 4.0 per cent this year. Thais used to call that kind of growth a recession.
Surely, though, the place remains a peaceful land of smiles? Only if you do not count bombs, beheadings and the murder of teachers in front of their pupils: in the predominantly Muslim Malay provinces of the far south, the Islamist and separatist Liberation Fighters of Pattani are waging war against what they regard as a Thai Buddhist occupation. More than 2,300 people have been killed.
What of the Thai appetite for modernisation, so evident before the Asian financial crisis of 1997? It depends what is meant by "modern". Bangkok boasts a new underground railway system and LIX elevated SkyTrain, but since last September the country has been run by the old-fashioned military junta that overthrew the elected government of Thaksin Shinawatra, the former telecommunications tycoon. Thailand's infrastructure hardware is modern. The institutional software is not.
Thais, having initially shrugged off the coup, are anxious about the bunglings of the military-appointed interim government, the increasingly overt political ambitions of General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin, the coup leader, and uncertainty over the royal succession.
Neither King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the world's longest-reigning monarch, nor Prem Tinsulanonda, his faithful 86-year-old privy counsellor and the man said to have engineered the coup, can live for ever.
Thais have taken refuge in superstition, flocking to the town of Nakhon Si Thammarat to buy supposedly magical amulets showing two mythical Hindu figures and produced by profiteering Buddhist temples. "It represents the confusion in our society at the moment," says one Thai banker in Bangkok. "It's become a cult."
So what went wrong? The prosperous, middle-class residents of Bangkok had protested against Mr Thaksin and were happy to see him ousted but now that he has gone they are reassessing his legacy. It is not that they have warmed to his authoritarian style of government, the corruption in his administration or his vulgar populism, but they recognise that he brought a version of democratic politics to the neglected rural areas of Thailand. Mr Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (Thais love Thais) party was the first in the country to win an absolute majority in parliament, because it not only bought votes in the traditional manner -- with cash -- but also offered policies such as cheap healthcare that voters liked, as well as a leader with charisma. Mr Thaksin, however, was a better populist than politician. In his five years in charge, he alienated all the sources of power in Thailand, including rival Thai-Chinese business families, the army, the left-wing non-government groups that originally supported him and, above all, the palace. Unlike his predecessors, Mr Thaksin did not yield to the wishes of the king and was even considered to be vying with him for the adulation of the rural populace. Whereas King Bhumibol offers Buddhist restraint and an inward-looking "sufficiency economy", Mr Thaksin served up global consumerism and the chance of wealth for all, Deng Xiaoping-style.
Perhaps, it was whispered, Mr Thaksin wanted to be Thailand's first president. "The political struggle that engulfed Thailand during 2006 ultimately pitted two inherently undemocratic forces against each other: plutocracy and hereditary monarchy," wrote the Singapore-based political analyst Michael Montesano.
Thailand's elite hit back hard. The king wields real, if diminishing, influence and has close ties to the armed forces. All sides in politics say the aim of the coup, and the new constitution set to be approved by an August 19 referendum, has been to return Thailand to its pre-Thaksin system of weak parliamentary government marked by successive coalitions of venal politicians and a crucial deus ex machina role for the royal family and the army.
To the consternation of the establishment, the plan is not working well. Mr Thaksin's assets have been frozen, Thai Rak Thai disbanded and the army's budget increased. Mr Thaksin himself is not keen to return. But even the leaders of the rival Democrat party acknowledge that Mr Thaksin -- who has just bought Manchester City football club, says he spends his days "kicking around the streets of London" and can be seen wandering through the halls of Harrods' department store remains popular at home.
Ominously for the palace, Mr Thaksin's supporters last month even dared stage a protest -- which turned violent outside Gen Prem's house. Thailand's painfully slow democratic revolution is far from over.
.........................................
— FT Syndication Service
THESE are strange times in Thailand. The old certainties of the once vigorous south-east Asian kingdom have given way to doubt and confusion. The Thai economy, for all its reputation as an engine of the post-war Asian "miracle", is growing peculiarly slowly. With domestic investors reluctant to spend, Thailand's 65m people will be lucky to see gross domestic product expansion of 4.0 per cent this year. Thais used to call that kind of growth a recession.
Surely, though, the place remains a peaceful land of smiles? Only if you do not count bombs, beheadings and the murder of teachers in front of their pupils: in the predominantly Muslim Malay provinces of the far south, the Islamist and separatist Liberation Fighters of Pattani are waging war against what they regard as a Thai Buddhist occupation. More than 2,300 people have been killed.
What of the Thai appetite for modernisation, so evident before the Asian financial crisis of 1997? It depends what is meant by "modern". Bangkok boasts a new underground railway system and LIX elevated SkyTrain, but since last September the country has been run by the old-fashioned military junta that overthrew the elected government of Thaksin Shinawatra, the former telecommunications tycoon. Thailand's infrastructure hardware is modern. The institutional software is not.
Thais, having initially shrugged off the coup, are anxious about the bunglings of the military-appointed interim government, the increasingly overt political ambitions of General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin, the coup leader, and uncertainty over the royal succession.
Neither King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the world's longest-reigning monarch, nor Prem Tinsulanonda, his faithful 86-year-old privy counsellor and the man said to have engineered the coup, can live for ever.
Thais have taken refuge in superstition, flocking to the town of Nakhon Si Thammarat to buy supposedly magical amulets showing two mythical Hindu figures and produced by profiteering Buddhist temples. "It represents the confusion in our society at the moment," says one Thai banker in Bangkok. "It's become a cult."
So what went wrong? The prosperous, middle-class residents of Bangkok had protested against Mr Thaksin and were happy to see him ousted but now that he has gone they are reassessing his legacy. It is not that they have warmed to his authoritarian style of government, the corruption in his administration or his vulgar populism, but they recognise that he brought a version of democratic politics to the neglected rural areas of Thailand. Mr Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (Thais love Thais) party was the first in the country to win an absolute majority in parliament, because it not only bought votes in the traditional manner -- with cash -- but also offered policies such as cheap healthcare that voters liked, as well as a leader with charisma. Mr Thaksin, however, was a better populist than politician. In his five years in charge, he alienated all the sources of power in Thailand, including rival Thai-Chinese business families, the army, the left-wing non-government groups that originally supported him and, above all, the palace. Unlike his predecessors, Mr Thaksin did not yield to the wishes of the king and was even considered to be vying with him for the adulation of the rural populace. Whereas King Bhumibol offers Buddhist restraint and an inward-looking "sufficiency economy", Mr Thaksin served up global consumerism and the chance of wealth for all, Deng Xiaoping-style.
Perhaps, it was whispered, Mr Thaksin wanted to be Thailand's first president. "The political struggle that engulfed Thailand during 2006 ultimately pitted two inherently undemocratic forces against each other: plutocracy and hereditary monarchy," wrote the Singapore-based political analyst Michael Montesano.
Thailand's elite hit back hard. The king wields real, if diminishing, influence and has close ties to the armed forces. All sides in politics say the aim of the coup, and the new constitution set to be approved by an August 19 referendum, has been to return Thailand to its pre-Thaksin system of weak parliamentary government marked by successive coalitions of venal politicians and a crucial deus ex machina role for the royal family and the army.
To the consternation of the establishment, the plan is not working well. Mr Thaksin's assets have been frozen, Thai Rak Thai disbanded and the army's budget increased. Mr Thaksin himself is not keen to return. But even the leaders of the rival Democrat party acknowledge that Mr Thaksin -- who has just bought Manchester City football club, says he spends his days "kicking around the streets of London" and can be seen wandering through the halls of Harrods' department store remains popular at home.
Ominously for the palace, Mr Thaksin's supporters last month even dared stage a protest -- which turned violent outside Gen Prem's house. Thailand's painfully slow democratic revolution is far from over.
.........................................
— FT Syndication Service