Agriculture remains the vanguard

Tagore believed, "Now is not the time for the farmers alone to toil, rather the scholars and scientists ought to join them." (Bhumilakshmi, Rabindra Rachanabali, 14th Part, Page 360). Fortunately for us, multidisciplinary approaches to agricultural development, as envisaged by Tagore, have been adhered to in Bangladesh first under the leadership of the Father of the Nation and then under the leadership of his daughter. Therefore, agriculture has always been serving as a macroeconomic vanguard like a wall against any potential economic crisis. The growth in agriculture has always been poverty-reduction and augmenting level of consumption, particularly at the bottom of the social pyramid of Bangladesh.
The entire economy of Bangladesh is now enjoying the benefits of the 'quantum jump' of agricultural development that has been taking place since 2009-10. The country not only survived the fallouts of the global financial crisis of that time, but also went through a commendable phase of resilient growth. This has been possible due to inclusive macroeconomic policies (especially due to the broad-based inclusive financing campaign) undertaken by Bangladesh. The agriculture sector served as the vanguard throughout this process. Firstly, around 40 per cent of the workforce remained employed in this sector (the ratio is said to be up to 60-65 per cent if those relying indirectly on agriculture are considered). Thus, through the income of agricultural entrepreneurs and agricultural workers the benefits of broad-based economic growth reached the bottom of the social pyramid. Furthermore, as the income of agriculture-dependent households grew, their demand for products and services also increased. This in turn led to bolstering of the consumption-driven growth of the economy. Additionally, a significant share of the inputs required for the burgeoning industrial sector of the country have also been sourced from the domestic agricultural sector.
Even amid the latest pandemic-induced economic slowdown (in FY2020-21), agriculture once again came to the fore as the main source of our economic growth. Recently (over the last year or so), we are once again facing significant macroeconomic challenges. The Bangladesh economy is indeed at a crossroads. On the one hand, there is optimism about graduation to a developing country within the next couple of years and becoming a trillion-dollar economy in another 10-15 years. On the other hand, there are the challenges resulting from the geopolitical instabilities as well as from the internal structural cleavages. Given this context, there is definitely a need to be further sensitive to the issues associated with the role of agriculture in our economy. We also need to be aware of agricultural transformations since independence, and the challenges on the way of agricultural development in the new context.
There is no denying the fact that the people, especially those belonging to the lower-income strata, are under serious pressure due to inflation (especially food inflation). At the same time, we must also acknowledge that Bangladesh as an economy has the capacity to ensure its food security. Thanks to consistent agricultural mechanisation and development of modern and climate-friendly agriculture over the last 10-15 years, we can surely have big ambitions about our agricultural transformation. For example, in Barisal division around 6 per cent of agricultural land has been lost due to urbanisation and other causes between 2014 and 2019. Yet, production of rice in this region has not decreased. Rather rice production has increased by 1.5 times owing to modern cultivation techniques and extension services.
GoB's Finance Division data shows that our food crop production has increased from 34 million tons to 43 million tons over the last decade. This year too we are expecting bumper growth of Aman rice. A recent newspaper report informs that in Kumilla, a farmer is expecting to harvest Aman worth Tk 20,000 against his Tk 8,000 investment. Harvests of other crops are also expected to be satisfactory. For example, in Sherpur, because of broad-based agricultural extension services including demonstration plots, the share of land engaged in mustard cultivation has more than doubled over the last five years. And production of mustard has increased even more (4 times). The trend is expected to continue this year as well. Given this backdrop, it will not be illogical to expect food inflation to come down significantly by the end of 2024 (food inflation was almost 10 per cent by the end of 2023). Of course, there has to be an intervention from the monetary policy as well to mop up additional liquidity created by the increased flow of both informal and formal remittances.
Certainly, we cannot expect to solve all our agricultural problems by increasing production alone. News from the market shows that food prices are not coming down despite having bumper harvests. On certain occasions, the prices remain high even after allowing imports. This is because the problems are less related to the field of cultivation and more to the marketing system. These structural problems are in fact issues of agriculture economics. And in our country, agriculture economics most often does not enjoy due attention. Consequently, stakeholders most often end up falling short in explaining the prevailing socio-economic realities. I could share a most recent example. By the end of the last year (2023), the mass media reported that while food inflation was high all over the country, the ratio was higher in rural areas than the urban ones. As food is mainly grown in rural areas, many found explaining this high rural food inflation particularly difficult. The fact that they must have overlooked was income of rural households which have increased significantly. Consequently, their demand for food has changed significantly over the last 20 years. Not all the food products a rural household consumes today are produced in that area. They also have an additional demand for processed and/or packaged agri-products. Furthermore, most of the agriculture produce from any rural area ends up being exported to urban centers. Therefore, be it crops produced in other rural areas or processed agri-products, a large share of the agricultural products consumed by families in rural areas are now imported from outside that area (from urban centers). Indeed, the rural-urban connect is very robust now.
Given this context, it is now high time to emphasise the transformation of our agri-economy and map the challenges ahead. Therefore, I believe the book titled "Bangladesher Krishi Orthonitee: Bishoy o Bisleshon (Bangladesh's Agriculture Economics: Content and Analyses)" to be of special relevance in the current context. The book published by UPL has been edited by the first Emeritus Professor of the Agriculture University Dr. Abdus Sattar Mandal. Nineteen other Agriculture Economics Professors contributed chapters in the book. Such a book in Bangla is indeed rare. Based on the areas of agriculture economics focused in the book, the 21 articles have been segregated into four sections. The articles in the first section narrate the introduction, content, and evolution of agriculture economics as a discourse.
The second section of the book has articles that deal with the applied/practical sides of agriculture economics in the context of Bangladesh. The writers have covered both micro- and macro-managed issues here. Therefore, along with unit level management of agricultural farms they have covered large agricultural development projects and fiscal policy measures for agricultural development.
Commercial agriculture, technology, and statistical issues related to agriculture economics are dealt in the articles incorporated in the third section of the book. These articles have focused separately on different issues/challenges associated with modern agricultural practices especially in Bangladesh. I have found the article on small-scale milk farms and the one on the use of renewable energy in agriculture to be highly interesting. This is because our macroeconomic success relies on SMEs to a significant extent, and shifting from fossil fuel-based cultivation to renewable energy is pivotal for sustainability in the long run.
Finally, the fourth section of the book has articles that analyse the structural challenges of our agricultural sector. The recommendations and policy suggestions laid out here should be of special interest to the government and non-government policymakers. The two articles from this chapter that I believe worth mentioning are the one about price supports for farmers and the other about agricultural insurance. We have been strongly advocating for these policy measures for a long time. And the international development partners are also interested in these policy issues.
I heartily express my gratitude to the contributors of this book firstly as they have opted to write this in Bangla and secondly (and perhaps more importantly) because they have used very lucid and communicative language to share their ideas. The ideas here have been laid out simply. Hence, this book will not only be useful to learners and researchers, but also provide food for thought for stakeholders from other walks of life ranging from administrators to policymakers. Along with ensuring future food security of the country, agriculture will continue to play its role as the vanguard of the macroeconomy. Indeed, more such books in Bangla should be written by academic and policymakers to strengthen the discourse on inclusive growth spearheaded by agricultural sector.

Dr. Atiur Rahman is an Emeritus Professor of Dhaka University and former Governor of Bangladesh Bank.
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