Alternative economies may hold the sway

All those in favour of rewinding economic theory run the risk of being labelled regressive. Ideas that challenge the status-quo thinking of progress have never been welcomed. Jules Verne was pooh-poohed for daring to take on science as it was in those days. For the emotional and imaginative the concepts of man flying and diving deep into the oceans stirred the creative instincts. Balance that and where we are today, exploring the heavens and ocean depths with an eye to perhaps, build habitats on other planets it has all come full circle. Likewise similar changes to economic thinking can't be binned.
Nature's vengeance be it pandemics or global warming has thrown up prospects hitherto unheard of. And then we have the insane desire for a new world order that threatens to undo centuries of putting together one that works for the world. Information more readily available makes for grim reading of the intent behind the fast-outdated existing order. The United Nations (UN) and all its surrogates, have been found woefully wanting. Nations that have striven towards self-sufficiency were forced to abandon such processes and open up for investment in the Global Village context. In so doing, nationhood itself became subservient to the power of money and corporates. Almost without failure, companies entered countries with the promise of jobs, technology transfer and contribution to the economy. Then when cost-effectiveness bites cut deep, there was reorganisation. Supply chain lines were redefined by creating hubs. Organic agriculture placed by genetic modification depleted soil fertility in third World countries where there were more mouths to feed. With dismal projections of food production being thrown up, developing countries held hard on to their theories whereby vast tracts of cultivable land continues to be left fallow.
Amidst the unholy race for arms and weaponising of both technology and the economy, the lesser wealthy and able countries have been pitted against gloom. Adding to the list of bankrupt countries from Europe and South America, South Asia, previously considered as growth engines for the future, is contributing in the form of Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Maldives. A combination of resilience and international funding has so far kept most of them afloat. With moneys hard to come by, mismanagement and badly thought out loans from other countries matters are dangerously poised.
If the pandemic caused disruptions to supply chain, production and harvests, the conflict in Europe has created a situation that has left most bewildered. World trading has been shaken at the roots, moneys and not the flows are under question. The US dollar as the major trading currency may not be able to hold its ground. For decades China has been at the forefront of wanting the Yuan as a major currency. Russia now wants its exports, mainly energy paid for in Roubles by the West. The Kremlin is in deep discourse with China and India for such mechanisms to be worked out. If successful, the demand for Roubles will go up, thereby enhancing its value. Side by side one can expect China to follow suit with the Yuan.
The impact of this on countries like Bangladesh will cut deep. Our foreign reserves are in US dollars, requiring a major shift. Whether the current strategy of buying energy from the Middle East will change will hold valid in the wake of increased western demand remains to be seen. The prospect of Russian energy at high discounts is tempting provided it doesn't affect Middle East bilateral relations. The resultant effect on consumer essential prices is a mix of profiteering and spin-off. It reopens the case for further self reliance and import substitution.
The old-fashioned barter-trade reintroduced by Sri Lanka to pay Iran through tea for fuel takes trading back to the old times. The model won't , cannot be the same for Bangladesh dependent as it is on remittances and garment exports for its foreign exchange. Crop essentials have to be ensured through contract farming abroad, greater focus has to be given to import substitution and a more stern approach to ratcheting down on corruption. The gig economy has a role to play provided the service or product promised isn't overly dependent on import as it is today.
Underlying everything however, is the crucial decision; whether neutrality is at all possible or whether taking sides will be the norm.

mahmudrahman@gmail.com