Arab uprisings and their impact on Bangladesh

In this era of globalisation when all the countries are connected with a same thread, a slight change in one country leaves impact on others. Again, after the cold war, political economy took a new dimension which ultimately gave birth to the new idea of neo-colonialism. The recent uprisings especially in the Middle East and Sudan cause worries for the thinkers and give them some new thoughts on the political economy of Bangladesh. In spite of the democratisation of most of the countries of the world, resource blessed Arab lands remained at the hands of monarchs and autocrats. Democratic cultures, most importantly freedom of expression, had been suppressed with cruelty. And the western powers, who claim to be the torchbearers of democracy openly fostered the regional strongmen. The biggest lobbying groups of the West, the arms producers and petroleum tycoons managed political recognition and arms supply for the authoritarian rulers in exchange of oil revenue and silence on Israel issue. The lesson of history is that none can make people silent for an indefinite period. People just waited for a chance. And the moment has come. Protest generated from Tunisia where an unemployed graduate set himself on fire as police did not allow him to sell vegetables without a permit. After days of protests, Tunisian president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali fled his country on January 15 after ruling for 23 years. Following this, 18 days of heated protests ended 30 year rule of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak. Libyan leader Col Muammar Gaddafi, after 42 years of his autocratic rule, is now fighting for survival. Indications show he will be toppled soon. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh are using army to suppress popular uprisings. The situation is almost same in many Arab cities. Many have found US secret diplomacy encouraging these revolts. If USA really wants democracy in the Middle East, where was it in the previous years? USA has not dictated but followed the events. US policymakers properly know that not supporting the movements will lack them having good relations with the future governments. Whatever the events may be, we can assume that most of the Arab governments will be changed more or less in favour of the people. In Bangladesh, the impact is mainly economic. Bangladesh is dependent on Middle East countries mainly for remittance inflow and oil import. Some political impacts may come in future. Around six million Bangladeshis live within the Middle East. Remittance from these expatriates is the biggest source of foreign currency inflow in Bangladesh. The amount has surpassed the earnings from the largest export ready made garments RMG. Of a total of about USD $ 11 billion remittance inflow in 2009-2010, $ 7.22 billion came from the Middle East alone. Since last year manpower export has been declining. According to the minister for Expatriate Affairs and Overseas Employment Khandaker Mosharraf Hossain, manpower export had fallen by 21 per cent in December last. He said that 385,000 Bangladeshi workers went abroad in 2010, as compared to 475,000 in 2009. According to the ministry, only two Bangladeshi workers got permission to go to Iraq in January 2011 against around 2,288 in 2010. Libya took 12,132 workers from Bangladesh in 2010. Instead of freshers going there, those already there are returning home. The downward movement of manpower export has been exacerbated by recent uprisings. Of the 95,194 Bangladeshi workers in Libya, 22,047 were brought back from February 28 to March 15, 2011 following the fighting between rebels and government forces. The future of other workers is uncertain. If the same kind of fighting begins in other Arab cities, the fate of migrant workers will be filled in darkness. Thousands of families are dependent on them. Moreover the expatriates are an important source of foreign currency in the government exchequer. How will the government of Bangladesh overcome this loss? Now it is urgent for the government to find escape strategy if the situation deteriorates. Another issue of concern for Bangladesh economy is the rising price of oil. On March 27 the price of a barrel of crude oil was about US $ 106, the highest since the peak $ 147 during the crisis of 2008. As a result of Middle Eastern strife, the increase of oil price alone can lead to global economic slowdown which was seen during the Arab oil embargo in 1972, the Iranian revolution in 1978 and Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Since the end of last year, the price of oil rose by $23 per barrel or about 25 percent. Because of the uprisings, the price is going high everyday. In any emergency, Saudi Arabia can fulfill the scarcity with its spare capacity. If Saudi regime is gripped by the same kind of protests, which is a near possibility, what is the solution? Yes, the turmoil period will be over at a time. But until then the economies have to face danger as the world economy is already plunged by Japanese tsunami and nuclear catastrophes. In 2010, Bangladesh consumed 82,340 barrels of oil per day. So, it is not hard to calculate how much the economy of Bangladesh has to pay as a result of oil price hike. This will surely halt the pace of growth and demand more money from the consumers who are already burdened with high prices of commodities. . Now is the time to develop a more integrated and adjusted economy for Bangladesh which is already besieged with numerous problems. The volatile situation in the Middle East will have an adverse impact on her, as it has economic interest with those countries for its survival. At the same time, we need to concentrate on the things better for the economy by sinking political differences and personal lavishness. The writers Ashraful Azad E-mail: azadircu@gmail.com and Mizanur Rahman E-mail: mithunmds07@gmail.com both work at Development Research Network