Are new developments in the offing in Pakistan?

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury Speculations are gaining currency in Pakistan and beyond about a possible political change in the country, following a series of developments that have apparently soured the relations between the civilian government and the powerful military there. Going by the media reports, gossips are aplenty about the military in Pakistan intervening in its whole course of its affairs, in the aftermath of the worsening relations with the government of prime minister Yousuf Raja Jilani, centering a variety of issues. The sudden illness of president Asif Ali Gilani and his going abroad for urgent medical have further fuelled rumours that he may quit his position on both political and health reasons. However, government sources in Islamabad have brushed aside such a possibility and sought to make it clear that nothing as such is in the offing. On the contrary, the sources asserted that the civil-military ties "are very much cordial" and any effort to smell a rat in the whole set of developments, will be shorn of truth. This position notwithstanding, the gossips have not ended and any unexpected development in Pakistan -- though the possibility of this happening seems to be otherwise slim at this stage -- is unlikely to be taken entirely as a bolt from the blue. For, certain factors have spawned a situation for changes that can not come as a total surprise in a country, whose most part as an independent nation was characterised by army rule and the country has seen four military coups. However, the sequences are now different and many issues are inextricably linked with the matter. The main reason for the speculations of an worsening civil-military ties is evidently the controversy surrounding a "Memo" purported to have earlier been sent by president Zardari to his country's ambassador to the United States, requesting the American high-ups to use their influence in forestalling a feared coup in Pakistan. Reports said it was sent by the president in the wake of the killing of Al-Queda leader, Osama bin Laden, deep inside Pakistan in May this year, by the US commandoes, keeping the Pakistan authorities in the dark about the "mission". The issue had touched off a national outcry in Pakistan as the operation by the US was seen as an "infringement" upon the country's sovereignty. At the same time, the Islamabad government was also severely criticized by its own people for "failure" to protect the national sovereignty as the civilian government and the military sought to blame each other for not acting in the right time, although it was not blown out of proportion publicly. It was the time when the possibility of an army take-over was first in the air and probably at that time the president might have sent the "Memo" to the US. The issue came to the fore only recently when a Pakistan-born American lobbyist mentioned the matter. The Islamabad government did seemingly ignore the subject in its initial reaction to this disclosure. Comments by no less a person that the immediate past chief of joint staff of the US armed forces admiral Mike Mullen, lent later credence to the "Memo" controversy. Not surprisingly, it had then a strong adverse impact on the civilian-military sensitive relationship which is particularly important in the context of Pakistan's history. The government played down the matter even though it did not stop gossips to swirl around the subject. Earlier, during the devastating floods, the army did a good job in the relief operations while the civil authorities were then considered ineffective. Besides, the luxurious foreign trips during that period of a natural calamity, by president Zardari with the members of his family were disliked by both the army and the people. It is against this background, when the unpopular president of Pakistan has rushed to Dubai for medical treatment after having suffered from, what is said to be, a minor heart attack, speculations have become rife that he might quit the scene in face of mounting pressure. Earlier, the Pakistani ambassador to US Hussain Huqqani was removed as a sequel to the "Memo" issue and former information minister Sherry Rahman, who is known to be close to president Zardari was made the new envoy to Washington. Some media reported that the powerful army might not have relished her new appointment to the most powerful nation of the world. Anyway, the chances of Pakistan going under military rule again look somewhat remote even if the ground is rife, when seen from military's point of view. Army chief Gen. Ashaque Kayani is known as a sound professional, who is unlikely to jump on any "adventure", unless it is totally unavoidable. Besides, such developments may bring myriad complications at the present juncture of international political trends, for the obvious reasons of trampling upon democratic rule. The ruling Peoples Party of Pakistan (PPP) was twice removed from power before its normal electoral tenure was over. President Zardari's wife, late Benazir was at the helm of affairs, on both occasions. The party will certainly spare no efforts this time to tide over the difficulties with the armed forces. Furthermore, the military is quite engaged with the Afghan situation and the war against terror and is having worsening ties with the NATO. All these have also put it in a difficult condition. It is unlikely to get itself totally engrossed with the governance of the nation, although it continues to play some kind of a role from behind the curtain in national affairs. Barring totally unforeseen developments, the coup or a big change like dislodging the present government from power, does appear to be unlikely even though rumours about the same continue to spread their wings. zaglulbss@yahoo.com