Asia to import 62m tonnes wheat by 2010
Sunday, 14 December 2008
NEW DELHI, Dec 13 (PTI): With increasing population and diet diversification of consumers, Asian countries, including India, may have to import 62 million tonnes of wheat over the next two years, a study said.
Asian demand for wheat is anticipated to grow at least by three per cent per annum through 2020, "requiring annual import of approximately 70 million tonnes of wheat by 2020, almost three times the 1993 level", said the study on 'Supplying wheat for Asia's increasingly westernised diets' published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics.
"Rapid economic growth and urbanisation are leading to dramatic changes in dietary patterns across Asia. As income rises, rice becomes an increasingly inferior food in Asia... Increased wheat demand in Asia will have to be met through combination of increased imports and enhanced domestic production, where technologically feasible," the report said.
The report highlighted that for countries in Southeast and East Asia (excluding China), an almost exclusive reliance on the international market is inevitable. For China, India, and South Asian countries, opportunities for increasing domestic production will have to be pursued even as marginal imports are expected to grow.
Asia's wheat demand is projected at 322 million tonnes, which would be 42 per cent of the global wheat demand in 2020. China and India, with an anticipated demand of 156 million tonnes and 96 million tonnes, respectively, would together account for 77 per cent of Asia's wheat demand in 2020.
For China, India, and other south Asian countries, the study cautioned that a rapid expansion in domestic output growth is absolutely crucial for meeting growing wheat demand.
"The striking reality is that virtually all future wheat output growth must come from increased yield per unit of land because the opportunities for further area expansion are exhausted in Asia," it warned.
On wheat consumption level in the continent, the report said that per capita consumption in Southeast Asia may double in the next decade from the 1993 levels of 15 kg per annum.
It further noted that wheat demand in South Asia is different from those of East and Southeast Asia.
"Wheat is the traditional cereal in the northern India, Pakistan, Nepal and northern parts of Bangladesh. Per capita consumption in these areas tends to be relatively stable with respect to income growth and it would grow at around 2.8 per cent per annum through 2020," it said.
Asian demand for wheat is anticipated to grow at least by three per cent per annum through 2020, "requiring annual import of approximately 70 million tonnes of wheat by 2020, almost three times the 1993 level", said the study on 'Supplying wheat for Asia's increasingly westernised diets' published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics.
"Rapid economic growth and urbanisation are leading to dramatic changes in dietary patterns across Asia. As income rises, rice becomes an increasingly inferior food in Asia... Increased wheat demand in Asia will have to be met through combination of increased imports and enhanced domestic production, where technologically feasible," the report said.
The report highlighted that for countries in Southeast and East Asia (excluding China), an almost exclusive reliance on the international market is inevitable. For China, India, and South Asian countries, opportunities for increasing domestic production will have to be pursued even as marginal imports are expected to grow.
Asia's wheat demand is projected at 322 million tonnes, which would be 42 per cent of the global wheat demand in 2020. China and India, with an anticipated demand of 156 million tonnes and 96 million tonnes, respectively, would together account for 77 per cent of Asia's wheat demand in 2020.
For China, India, and other south Asian countries, the study cautioned that a rapid expansion in domestic output growth is absolutely crucial for meeting growing wheat demand.
"The striking reality is that virtually all future wheat output growth must come from increased yield per unit of land because the opportunities for further area expansion are exhausted in Asia," it warned.
On wheat consumption level in the continent, the report said that per capita consumption in Southeast Asia may double in the next decade from the 1993 levels of 15 kg per annum.
It further noted that wheat demand in South Asia is different from those of East and Southeast Asia.
"Wheat is the traditional cereal in the northern India, Pakistan, Nepal and northern parts of Bangladesh. Per capita consumption in these areas tends to be relatively stable with respect to income growth and it would grow at around 2.8 per cent per annum through 2020," it said.