Asian Highway, the options for Bangladesh
Saturday, 19 December 2009
Shah Mohammed Saifuddin
The concept of Asian Highway was first mooted 1959 to bring the countries in the continent closer for promoting trade, cultural exchange and tourism. Rapid economic growth in the Asia Pacific region created the demand for improved, reliable and cost-effective road networks to connect the countries. The idea of the Asian Highway became know in the 60s, 70s and 80s. An intergovernmental agreement on the Asian Highway project, signed on November 18, 2003, became effective on July 04, 2005. A sum of $26 billion has already been invested on the project. Talks are underway among the member countries to raise another $18 billion to improve the capacity and efficiency of the road network, to feed the Asian Highway.
The route criteria is important for possible benefits or risks, for the member countries. ESCAP has set forth a set of route criteria for the Asian Highway network to connect growth centers and major communication infrastructure of member countries to enhance trade. These criteria are as follows:
The routes should link the capitals of member countries for international connectivity.
The routes should connect industrial, agricultural and other growth centres to link major points of origin and destination.
The routes should integrate land and sea transport networks by connecting major sea and river ports.
The routes should integrate rail and road networks to connect major container terminals and depots.
The following are the possible benefits Asian countries could derive by connecting with the mega highway:
Integration of regional economies for boosting trade and commerce.
Enhanced economic and social interactions through tourism promotion.
Regional cooperation in harnessing natural resources to maximise economic benefits.
Fostering trust, stability, and peace among the member countries.
But the Asian Highway could create risks for the member countries, although think that the benefits out-weigh the risks. There is no reason to ignore the risks, the Asian Highway could create. The risks are described below:
Increased exposure to HIV/AIDS and other life threatening diseases.
Increased risks of human and drug trafficking.
Increased risks of environmental degradation.
Increased risks of terrorist attacks on people and transport infrastructure.
The Asian Highway has become a controversial issue in Bangladesh because of conflicting choice of routes by Bangladesh and India. The three proposed routes are as follows:
AH-1: India-Benapole-Jessore-Dhaka-Kachpur-Sylhet-Tamabil
AH-2: India-Hatikumrul-Dhaka-Kachpur-Sylhet-Tamabil
AH-41: India-Mongla-Jessore-Hatikumrul-Dhaka-Kachpur-Chittagong-Cox's Bazaar-Teknaf-Myanmar.
While Bangladesh earlier preferred AH-41 because it provides the shortest and the most cost-effective route to transport goods to ASEAN countries and China. India prefers the other routes because they connect Indian North East with the Indian mainland through Bangladesh before connecting Myanmar. Many experts are of the opinion that the two routes preferred by India would diminish Bangladesh's strategic and economic advantages because they are much longer routes, both the points of entry and exit being in India.
An analysis of impacts of each of the routes proposed by UNESCAP, is necessary.
The two routes, AH-1 and AH-2, do not fulfill the criteria set forth by the UNESCAP because they do not connect Mongla and Chittagong sea ports, as they detour to connect India's North-East, instead of linking Myanmar's capital Yangoon. They also do not integrate major road networks such as Dhaka-Chittagong Highway to increase efficiency.
Being much longer AH-1 and AH-2 would be economically unprofitable routes for Bangladesh to connect with ASEAN countries because it has to pay additional freight charges. It would increase the cost of production and product prices for Bangladesh. In price competition, Bangladesh would, therefore, lose the lucrative ASEAN market.
AH-1 and AH-2 will take away Bangladesh's competitive advantages within the country, regionally and internationally. Bangladesh will lose competitive advantage vis a vis India as the latter will be able to transport goods to North Eastern states at a much cheaper price, and, therefore, Bangladesh's chances to expand her export market to India will be lost.
India, being the entry and exit point of these two routes, will be able to control Bangladesh's external trade, in particular and the economy, in general. Once India starts to exert its influence on Bangladesh's external trade with other nations, she will expand her influence in Bangladesh's other areas of vital national interest.
Losing competitive advantage, to India could mean lower economic growth to affect reduction of poverty, eradication of unemployment, and Bangladesh's ambition to be a major economic power in the region.
Lacking competitive advantage, Bangladesh could lose its domestic market as well as the markets in neighbouring North East India, ASEAN and China. Bangladesh could be reduced to nothing more than a trading nation.
Social impact of the routes could be tremendous, with Bangladesh becoming a victim of health hazards due to lack of surveillance and monitoring, along the vast Indo-Bangla border, to control the spread of AIDS and other communicable diseases.
Lack of economic opportunities in the North Eastern states may cause mass migration of people to Bangladesh to alter the existing demographic composition, which may create plethora of socio-economic problems in the country.
Due to poor border management, trafficking and other criminal activities from across the border could harm Bangladesh. Social harmony in the country could be a casualty.
Security Impact: The implementation of the two routes, AH-1 and AH-2 may pose grave security danger to Bangladesh. India's home-grown insurgent groups in North East India would find the routes convenient to carry on subversive activities within Bangladesh to sabotage the communication link between India's mainland and its troubled North East.
Local criminals could as well use these routes to escape to India or use it as a base to commit crimes. The routes could be used to smuggle weapons from India to carry out subversive activities in Bangladesh.
The customs and other law enforcement agencies, who lack the capacity, are unable to inspect the contents of each and every North East bound cargo vehicle. This inadequacy could make Bangladesh vulnerable in many ways.
The possible undeclared use of the routes by either Indian authorities or others to transport of military hardware to North East India, could keep Bangladesh perennially cornered.
Strategic Impact: If implemented, the two routes could be used by India to diminish Bangladesh's only strategic advantage with India.
In a conflict situation, India will be able to exploit the routes and use Bangladesh as an undeclared military corridor against China to protect its mountainous state -- Arunachal Pradesh.
This would make China suspicious of Bangladesh. This action could widen a possible war between India and China into Bangladesh territory. The fallout could be a deterioration in the relationship between Bangladesh and China.
Bangladesh will be the net loser, ending up a battleground between China and India. Losing China as a friend, Bangladesh will find it self alone in a hostile neighbourhood. It will inevitably facilitate Indian domination.
Economic Impact of AH-41: AH-41 will connect Mongla and Chittagong sea ports, directly with Yangoon as well as Dhaka. It will also integrate major communication networks to increase efficiency, to enhance trade and tourism, and improve distribution of farm products. Only AH-41 fulfills all the criteria set forth by the UNESCAP.
AH-41 would provide the shortest and economically profitable route to connect the Asean countries. It will facilitate Bangladesh exports at the shortest time and at a minimum cost. It will enable Bangladesh to gain competitive advantage in the ASEAN market due to time and cost advantages.
The competitive advantage will enable Bangladesh to compete in the North East Indian market.
While AH-1 and AH-2 would create disadvantages for Bangladesh in trade and international connectivity, AH-41 will create advantages for international trade.
AH-41 will facilitate Bangladesh exploit strategic geographic location and port facilities, to attain high economic growth. The benefits of trade with North East Indian and ASEAN markets, would help Bangladesh reduce poverty, and eradicate unemployment. The route would help Bangladesh become an economic power.
The route will help Bangladesh its expand domestic and international markets. It can accelerate industrialisation.
Social impact of AH-41: AH-41 can faster increased economic activities for raising living standards, improving health care system and keeping crimes in check.
Economic benefits, it can facilitate, would help raise mass awareness about human rights and social justice, to create social harmony.
The route would reduce the risk of mass migration from underdeveloped North Eastern India. It will, then, minimise the risk of altering Bangladesh's demographic composition.
The route would reduce cross border criminal activities to ensure peace, stability and tranquillity along the borders.
Security impact of AH- 41: As the route will provide no direct road link with India's troubled North East, the threat of sabotaging trade links by North East Indian insurgent groups will totally be eliminated.
AH-41 will facilitate efficient border management to control cross border movement of criminals, arms smuggling and drug trafficking across the Bangla-Myanmar border.
The route will minimise the risk of inadvertent involvement in the conflicts in India's North East. This route cannot be used to transport military goods to North Eastern Indian.
It can foster better relations between the security forces of Bangladesh and Myanmar to remove suspicion and mistrust, and foster understanding and cooperation based on mutual trust and interest.
Strategic impact of AH-41: The route will enable Bangladesh retain its interest strategic advantage in the region, a key to stability and economic development of both the neighbours.
By providing no military corridor through Bangladesh, the route will diminish the risks for it.
It will minimise the risk for Bangladesh to get involved in possible conflicts between India and China.
This route will make Bangladesh a bridge between SAARC and ASEAN.
It can make Bangladesh an important strategic player in South Asia because of its geographic location. It will provide Bangladesh connectivity with the rest of the world.
It is imperative for Bangladesh to weigh all these factors before choosing the route to the Asian Highway to maximise economic, political and security benefits and minimise the risks in all these areas.
The concept of Asian Highway was first mooted 1959 to bring the countries in the continent closer for promoting trade, cultural exchange and tourism. Rapid economic growth in the Asia Pacific region created the demand for improved, reliable and cost-effective road networks to connect the countries. The idea of the Asian Highway became know in the 60s, 70s and 80s. An intergovernmental agreement on the Asian Highway project, signed on November 18, 2003, became effective on July 04, 2005. A sum of $26 billion has already been invested on the project. Talks are underway among the member countries to raise another $18 billion to improve the capacity and efficiency of the road network, to feed the Asian Highway.
The route criteria is important for possible benefits or risks, for the member countries. ESCAP has set forth a set of route criteria for the Asian Highway network to connect growth centers and major communication infrastructure of member countries to enhance trade. These criteria are as follows:
The routes should link the capitals of member countries for international connectivity.
The routes should connect industrial, agricultural and other growth centres to link major points of origin and destination.
The routes should integrate land and sea transport networks by connecting major sea and river ports.
The routes should integrate rail and road networks to connect major container terminals and depots.
The following are the possible benefits Asian countries could derive by connecting with the mega highway:
Integration of regional economies for boosting trade and commerce.
Enhanced economic and social interactions through tourism promotion.
Regional cooperation in harnessing natural resources to maximise economic benefits.
Fostering trust, stability, and peace among the member countries.
But the Asian Highway could create risks for the member countries, although think that the benefits out-weigh the risks. There is no reason to ignore the risks, the Asian Highway could create. The risks are described below:
Increased exposure to HIV/AIDS and other life threatening diseases.
Increased risks of human and drug trafficking.
Increased risks of environmental degradation.
Increased risks of terrorist attacks on people and transport infrastructure.
The Asian Highway has become a controversial issue in Bangladesh because of conflicting choice of routes by Bangladesh and India. The three proposed routes are as follows:
AH-1: India-Benapole-Jessore-Dhaka-Kachpur-Sylhet-Tamabil
AH-2: India-Hatikumrul-Dhaka-Kachpur-Sylhet-Tamabil
AH-41: India-Mongla-Jessore-Hatikumrul-Dhaka-Kachpur-Chittagong-Cox's Bazaar-Teknaf-Myanmar.
While Bangladesh earlier preferred AH-41 because it provides the shortest and the most cost-effective route to transport goods to ASEAN countries and China. India prefers the other routes because they connect Indian North East with the Indian mainland through Bangladesh before connecting Myanmar. Many experts are of the opinion that the two routes preferred by India would diminish Bangladesh's strategic and economic advantages because they are much longer routes, both the points of entry and exit being in India.
An analysis of impacts of each of the routes proposed by UNESCAP, is necessary.
The two routes, AH-1 and AH-2, do not fulfill the criteria set forth by the UNESCAP because they do not connect Mongla and Chittagong sea ports, as they detour to connect India's North-East, instead of linking Myanmar's capital Yangoon. They also do not integrate major road networks such as Dhaka-Chittagong Highway to increase efficiency.
Being much longer AH-1 and AH-2 would be economically unprofitable routes for Bangladesh to connect with ASEAN countries because it has to pay additional freight charges. It would increase the cost of production and product prices for Bangladesh. In price competition, Bangladesh would, therefore, lose the lucrative ASEAN market.
AH-1 and AH-2 will take away Bangladesh's competitive advantages within the country, regionally and internationally. Bangladesh will lose competitive advantage vis a vis India as the latter will be able to transport goods to North Eastern states at a much cheaper price, and, therefore, Bangladesh's chances to expand her export market to India will be lost.
India, being the entry and exit point of these two routes, will be able to control Bangladesh's external trade, in particular and the economy, in general. Once India starts to exert its influence on Bangladesh's external trade with other nations, she will expand her influence in Bangladesh's other areas of vital national interest.
Losing competitive advantage, to India could mean lower economic growth to affect reduction of poverty, eradication of unemployment, and Bangladesh's ambition to be a major economic power in the region.
Lacking competitive advantage, Bangladesh could lose its domestic market as well as the markets in neighbouring North East India, ASEAN and China. Bangladesh could be reduced to nothing more than a trading nation.
Social impact of the routes could be tremendous, with Bangladesh becoming a victim of health hazards due to lack of surveillance and monitoring, along the vast Indo-Bangla border, to control the spread of AIDS and other communicable diseases.
Lack of economic opportunities in the North Eastern states may cause mass migration of people to Bangladesh to alter the existing demographic composition, which may create plethora of socio-economic problems in the country.
Due to poor border management, trafficking and other criminal activities from across the border could harm Bangladesh. Social harmony in the country could be a casualty.
Security Impact: The implementation of the two routes, AH-1 and AH-2 may pose grave security danger to Bangladesh. India's home-grown insurgent groups in North East India would find the routes convenient to carry on subversive activities within Bangladesh to sabotage the communication link between India's mainland and its troubled North East.
Local criminals could as well use these routes to escape to India or use it as a base to commit crimes. The routes could be used to smuggle weapons from India to carry out subversive activities in Bangladesh.
The customs and other law enforcement agencies, who lack the capacity, are unable to inspect the contents of each and every North East bound cargo vehicle. This inadequacy could make Bangladesh vulnerable in many ways.
The possible undeclared use of the routes by either Indian authorities or others to transport of military hardware to North East India, could keep Bangladesh perennially cornered.
Strategic Impact: If implemented, the two routes could be used by India to diminish Bangladesh's only strategic advantage with India.
In a conflict situation, India will be able to exploit the routes and use Bangladesh as an undeclared military corridor against China to protect its mountainous state -- Arunachal Pradesh.
This would make China suspicious of Bangladesh. This action could widen a possible war between India and China into Bangladesh territory. The fallout could be a deterioration in the relationship between Bangladesh and China.
Bangladesh will be the net loser, ending up a battleground between China and India. Losing China as a friend, Bangladesh will find it self alone in a hostile neighbourhood. It will inevitably facilitate Indian domination.
Economic Impact of AH-41: AH-41 will connect Mongla and Chittagong sea ports, directly with Yangoon as well as Dhaka. It will also integrate major communication networks to increase efficiency, to enhance trade and tourism, and improve distribution of farm products. Only AH-41 fulfills all the criteria set forth by the UNESCAP.
AH-41 would provide the shortest and economically profitable route to connect the Asean countries. It will facilitate Bangladesh exports at the shortest time and at a minimum cost. It will enable Bangladesh to gain competitive advantage in the ASEAN market due to time and cost advantages.
The competitive advantage will enable Bangladesh to compete in the North East Indian market.
While AH-1 and AH-2 would create disadvantages for Bangladesh in trade and international connectivity, AH-41 will create advantages for international trade.
AH-41 will facilitate Bangladesh exploit strategic geographic location and port facilities, to attain high economic growth. The benefits of trade with North East Indian and ASEAN markets, would help Bangladesh reduce poverty, and eradicate unemployment. The route would help Bangladesh become an economic power.
The route will help Bangladesh its expand domestic and international markets. It can accelerate industrialisation.
Social impact of AH-41: AH-41 can faster increased economic activities for raising living standards, improving health care system and keeping crimes in check.
Economic benefits, it can facilitate, would help raise mass awareness about human rights and social justice, to create social harmony.
The route would reduce the risk of mass migration from underdeveloped North Eastern India. It will, then, minimise the risk of altering Bangladesh's demographic composition.
The route would reduce cross border criminal activities to ensure peace, stability and tranquillity along the borders.
Security impact of AH- 41: As the route will provide no direct road link with India's troubled North East, the threat of sabotaging trade links by North East Indian insurgent groups will totally be eliminated.
AH-41 will facilitate efficient border management to control cross border movement of criminals, arms smuggling and drug trafficking across the Bangla-Myanmar border.
The route will minimise the risk of inadvertent involvement in the conflicts in India's North East. This route cannot be used to transport military goods to North Eastern Indian.
It can foster better relations between the security forces of Bangladesh and Myanmar to remove suspicion and mistrust, and foster understanding and cooperation based on mutual trust and interest.
Strategic impact of AH-41: The route will enable Bangladesh retain its interest strategic advantage in the region, a key to stability and economic development of both the neighbours.
By providing no military corridor through Bangladesh, the route will diminish the risks for it.
It will minimise the risk for Bangladesh to get involved in possible conflicts between India and China.
This route will make Bangladesh a bridge between SAARC and ASEAN.
It can make Bangladesh an important strategic player in South Asia because of its geographic location. It will provide Bangladesh connectivity with the rest of the world.
It is imperative for Bangladesh to weigh all these factors before choosing the route to the Asian Highway to maximise economic, political and security benefits and minimise the risks in all these areas.