Attaining MDGs: The contributing factors

Over the past four decades since independence, Bangladesh has increased its real per capita income by more than 130 per cent, cut poverty rate by 60 per cent, and is well set to achieve most of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Some of the underlying specific achievements include reducing Total Fertility Rate from 7.0 to 2.3, increasing life expectancy from 46.2 years to 69, raising the rate of economic growth from an average rate of 4.0 per cent in the 1970s to 6.0 per cent in the 2000s, achieving gender parity in primary and secondary education. These also include more than tripling of the production of rice (from 10 million tonnes in 1972- 73 to 35.0 million tonnes in FY 14) thereby achieving self-sufficiency in normal production years.
The economy today is a lot more flexible and resilient, as indicated by the ability to withstand the global financial crisis with minimum adverse effects. Bangladesh also is now much more capable of handling natural disasters with minimum loss of life. Bangladesh achieved this remarkable progress with development despite numerous internal and external constraints.
ACHIEVING POVERTY TARGETS:    Bangladesh has been successful in achieving significant reduction in poverty since 1990. The Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2010 (HIES-2010) shows that national poverty headcount declined from 56.7 per cent in 1991-92 to 31.5 per cent in 2010, while extreme poverty rate declined from 41 to 17.6 per cent over the same period.
The commendable progress in respect of eradication of poverty was possible due to the relatively inclusive growth pattern and robust sustained growth in GDP (gross domestic product) that was accompanied by gradual transformation of the sectoral composition of the GDP culminating in greater share of manufacturing and services sectors and declining share of agriculture.
Moreover, the sustained growth (over 6.0 per cent in recent years) has been accompanied by corresponding improvements in several social indicators despite having the world's highest population density. The recent data of the World Bank poverty assessment reveal that incidence of poverty declined, on an average, at 1.74 percentage points in Bangladesh during 2000 to 2010. If this trend continues, the target of halving the population living under the poverty line has already been achieved in 2012 and the estimated figure of poverty head count in 2013 was 26.2 per cent.
The other measures of poverty also show the similar pattern.
In recognition of the long-term development challenges, the government adopted the Vision 2021 during the ninth parliament (2009-2013) which has envisioned Bangladesh to become a middle-income country by the end of 2021. The Sixth Five-Year Plan (FY2011-FY2015) has developed strategies, policies and institutions that allow Bangladesh to accelerate growth and reduce poverty and inequality.
Rapid reduction of poverty has been pursued through attaining high economic growth and ensuring productive employment and incomes for large number of people of Bangladesh. The growth-employment-poverty reduction linkage has been emphasised by focusing on labour intensive urban and rural manufacturing production. Efforts are on the way to raise land productivity to support income-earning opportunities of workers remaining in agriculture.
Research and development have been given priority for improving Total Factor Productivity (TFP). The government has adopted new Education Policy and Health Policy with a view to transforming the existing population into human resources. Overseas migration of predominantly less-skilled labour and remittance, comprising almost 9.49 per cent of GDP (FY 2003), has had major beneficial development impacts on the economy.
Moreover, remittances, from 7.0 million expatriate Bangladeshis contribute directly to improvements in the financial and social status of migrants' families and communities. Another anti-poverty strategy of the government through the expanded Social Safety Net Programmes (SSNP) to address risk and vulnerability helped reduce poverty and inequality.
Distressed people particularly women, children and disabled persons have been given priority under SSNP. Safety net coverage was 13 per cent of population until 2008. However, the government has increased it to 24 per cent of population in 2011. The allocation also has increased from 1.98 per cent of GDP in FY 09 to 2.13 per cent in FY 14. The allocation for Annual Development Programme (ADP), which is the main public investment window to reduce poverty, was 3.15 per cent of GDP in FY 09 and has been increased to 5.54 per cent of GDP in FY14. Moreover, half of the total budget expenditure is related to poverty reduction for the five years.
According to the 2013 UN MDGs report, extreme poverty rates have fallen in every developing region. In South Asia, poverty rates fell by an average of one percentage point annually (from 51 per cent in 1990 to 30 per cent two decades later). The international comparison of Bangladesh with respect to poverty among its neighbouring countries is shown in Table 1.  
A major concern in the country is the pervasive underemployment which has prevented the country from fully meeting the MDG 1. The challenge is to ensure pro-poor economic growth that can lead to creation of more jobs, better employment and higher household income. Structural realities and constraints such as limited land for cultivation, high population density and a growing population represent significant challenges. To meet the future demand of a growing population, agricultural productivity growth, especially for rice and other crops, needs to be sustained.
STATUS OF ACHIEVING HUNGER TARGETS:     Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2010 (BBS, 2011) shows that overall calorie intake per capita per day has significantly increased to 2,318.3 kcal in 2010 from 2,238.5 kcal in 2005 reversing the general decreasing trend found in previous surveys. Significant increase of per capita per day calorie intake might be due to changing food habit of people as well as to increase in overall quantity of food consumption and increasing food diversity. Nearly two-thirds (66 per cent) of Bangladesh's children under-five years of age were underweight in 1990.
Recently conducted Child and Mother Nutrition Survey (CMNS)-2012 of BBS found underweight of under-five years children as 34.4 per cent. Increased literacy of women (55.1 per cent), reduction of fertility rate (2.11), enhanced measles vaccination coverage (82 per cent), smaller family size (4.5 persons per household), spread of vitamin A supplementation coverage (74.8 per cent), increased food production (35 million tonnes of rice) and energy intake (per capita electricity consumption 285 kwh) have been the probable causes contributing to the success.
According to the 'State of Food Insecurity (SOFI) 2012', jointly prepared by the FAO, THE IFAD and THE WFP, Bangladesh has halved the prevalence of hunger over the last two decades. The report indicates that the proportion of hungry people in total population of Bangladesh has reduced from 34.6 per cent in 1990 to 16.8 per cent in 2012. During the same period (1990-2012), the number of hungry people in Bangladesh was reduced from 37 million in 1990 to 25 million in 2012. According to SOFI 2012, Bangladesh fared well when compared in the global and regional perspective. In 1990, the number of global hungry population was one billion, which now stands at 868 million, while the number of hungry people in South Asia was 325 million in the base year, which still remains as high as 304 million. The prevalence of hunger in terms of proportion of total population is 17.6 per cent in South Asia, which is higher than the hunger prevalence of 16.8 per cent in Bangladesh as mentioned earlier.
Similarly, according to the Global Hunger Index (GHI) Report 2013, Bangladesh has improved its rank ten steps up in the GHI in 2013 to 58th position from 68th position in 2012, which was 70th position in 2011.
The recent global food price inflation illustrates the critical importance of ensuring food security for a large poor country like Bangladesh. Past progress in rice production suggests that Bangladesh has the capacity to achieve food availability efficiently through domestic production. Hence the government has given emphasis on productivity improvements by providing incentives particularly to the farmers. In FY 08, total production of rice was 28.93 million tonnes while it has increased to 35 million tonnes in FY 14. Total rice required (including food, feed, seed wastage, 152 kg rice per head per year for 150 million people) is 26.15 million tonnes; hence surplus is observed of 8.85 million tonnes.
Therefore, the country is in the arena of self-sufficiency in rice. It has been possible only because of the pro-farmer activities and policies of the government which ensure adequate supply of inputs (seed, fertiliser, electricity for irrigation) in subsidised prices to the farmers. Moreover, in case of food production, climate change adaptation strategy in the agriculture sector has been given priority to tackle the food insecurity susceptibility due to climate change. The achievements of targets under the three dimensions of food security-availability, access and utilisation, is being facilitated by the implementation of the National Food Policy and its Plan of Action and the Country Investment Plan (CIP) 2010-2015.
Priority has also been given on research and development for crop sector diversification to consider future consumer demand like increased pulse production, water management, effective support and credit for farmers and effective trade policies on food import.
In the dimension of food access government's first priority is to create enabling environment for the private sector to generate more employment and enhance household incomes. For the marginalised groups proper targeting under Social Safety Net Programme is another way to address the accessibility criteria of food security by the government. With regard to food utilization and nutrition, behavioural change and communication to promote good nutritional practices is one of the important agenda of the government.  
The government has mainstreamed the nutrition service delivery at all service delivery point of the Health and Family Planning Directorates with the community clinics being the first rural contact point for receiving primary healthcare. To help assist the exclusive breast-feeding up to six month, maternity leave for the working mothers have been enhanced to six month by the government, which augmented the nutritional status of the populace.
The writer is Member, General Economics Division (GED), Bangladesh Planning Commission.
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