Australia faces $30b export revenue fall for slide in iron ore, coal

SINGAPORE, Nov 11 (Reuters): A worldwide fall in iron ore and coal prices is set to cut Australia's overall export revenue by $32 billion, equal to 2 per cent of projected GDP this year, Reuters calculations show.
Australia is by far the world's biggest exporter of iron ore and coal, commodities that helped it sidestep the worst of the financial crisis.
But with its next biggest resource exports gold, oil and gas also suffering price falls, as investors shun volatile commodities and China's economic slowdown persists, Australia risks an even harder ride next year.
The drop in commodity prices is also partly self-inflicted as Australia's largest iron ore miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto lift output by millions of tonnes each year after huge expansion programmes, creating a supply glut.
This has led to a 44 per cent drop in iron prices so far this year to near the weakest since 2009 of under $76 a tonne and analysts say there is further to fall as supply increasingly outstrips demand.
"The party's over for iron ore," said Mark Pervan, head of commodity research at ANZ Bank, which this week cut its 2015 forecast to $78 a tonne from $101.
That's still higher than Citigroup's forecast of $65 a tonne.
Despite record iron ore exports, up from around 465 million tonnes to more than 650 million tonnes a year since 2011, the price plunge would mean a $17 billion fall in the value of iron ore shipments in 2014, Reuters calculations based on company, government and pricing data show.