Australian exports to surge despite global slowdown
Tuesday, 23 September 2008
SYDNEY, Sept 22 (AFP): Australian export earnings are set to hit record levels this year due to continued strong demand for raw materials despite a global economic slowdown, the nation's chief forecaster said today.
But Australia's economy will not be immune from the slowdown, with expected growth downgraded from average an 3.50 per cent to 2.75 per cent for 2008-09, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said.
"While continued strong demand for Australian commodities is expected to provide support for economic growth, domestic demand is likely to moderate further over the next few quarters," it said in a commodities report.
The bureau said Australian commodity export earnings were forecast to reach a record 213.7 billion dollars (177.7 billion US) in the year to June 30, 2009, a 1.4 billion dollar increase from the June forecast.
Farm export earnings are forecast to rise by nine per cent to 30 billion dollars, with increased earnings for wheat, barley, canola, sugar and wine offsetting a decline in livestock revenue.
But the resources sector is the primary money-maker-with earnings expected to jump 53 per cent on the previous year and bring in some 180 billion dollars due to stronger prices for iron ore, coal, oil and LNG (liquified natural gas).
"The major contributing factor to this strong growth in export earnings is coming from the mineral resources sector, especially as we have achieved very strong growth in contract prices for coking coal, steaming coal and iron ore," the bureau's chief commodities analyst Jammie Penm told the agency.
Penm said the bureau had factored in some slowing in world growth, but that much of the demand for Australian resources came from emerging economies and this was expected to continue.
"We have assumed that world economic growth will slow from around five per cent in 2007 to 3.9 per cent this year and then slow down even slightly further to 3.8 per cent in 2009," he said.
"In the global picture, what we have assumed is we think that the emerging economies, including China and India, will maintain their growth momentum even though their growth will still slow down."
Penm said rapidly industrialising Asia's demand for Australian resources was boosting the economy.
"Certainly this significant forecast increase, if realised, will provide support for our economy," he said.
But Australia's economy will not be immune from the slowdown, with expected growth downgraded from average an 3.50 per cent to 2.75 per cent for 2008-09, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said.
"While continued strong demand for Australian commodities is expected to provide support for economic growth, domestic demand is likely to moderate further over the next few quarters," it said in a commodities report.
The bureau said Australian commodity export earnings were forecast to reach a record 213.7 billion dollars (177.7 billion US) in the year to June 30, 2009, a 1.4 billion dollar increase from the June forecast.
Farm export earnings are forecast to rise by nine per cent to 30 billion dollars, with increased earnings for wheat, barley, canola, sugar and wine offsetting a decline in livestock revenue.
But the resources sector is the primary money-maker-with earnings expected to jump 53 per cent on the previous year and bring in some 180 billion dollars due to stronger prices for iron ore, coal, oil and LNG (liquified natural gas).
"The major contributing factor to this strong growth in export earnings is coming from the mineral resources sector, especially as we have achieved very strong growth in contract prices for coking coal, steaming coal and iron ore," the bureau's chief commodities analyst Jammie Penm told the agency.
Penm said the bureau had factored in some slowing in world growth, but that much of the demand for Australian resources came from emerging economies and this was expected to continue.
"We have assumed that world economic growth will slow from around five per cent in 2007 to 3.9 per cent this year and then slow down even slightly further to 3.8 per cent in 2009," he said.
"In the global picture, what we have assumed is we think that the emerging economies, including China and India, will maintain their growth momentum even though their growth will still slow down."
Penm said rapidly industrialising Asia's demand for Australian resources was boosting the economy.
"Certainly this significant forecast increase, if realised, will provide support for our economy," he said.