Bangladesh and South-East Asian connectivity

Having successfully pushed the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) Motor Vehicle Agreement (MVA) to roll on, India is now actively working for another MVA. It is the India-Myanmar-Thailand (IMT) MVA that will be finalised in November this year. Earlier in July this year, transport secretaries of the three countries in a meeting in Bangkok formally agreed for seamless movement of motor vehicles of three countries on the roads of one another and decided to complete their own homework for the final deal.    
By singing the IMT MVA, India will be able to get easier road access to East Asia. IMT MVA will enable passengers, personnel and cargo vehicles to ride across the borders of the three countries and also deal with trade and commerce. Thus, two sub-regional MVAs (BBIN and IMT) will create a vast road network for India with five countries.  
ACCESSING SOUTH-EAST ASIA: The IMT MVA is also instrumental to making Asian Highway (AH-1) functional which is again a part of the IMT Trilateral Highway.  The starting point of the route is Imphal, capital of Indian north-eastern province Manipur. It stretches to Moreh in Myanmar, adjunct to Indian border, then crosses through Tamu, Kalewa, Monywa, Mandalaya to Yangon, capital of Myanmar. The final destination is Mae Sot of Thailand. It is a road network of some 3,200 km which will be extended later to link Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. India has already provided Myanmar with a loan worth $500 million for upgrading the 1,600-km of the Myanmar-section of the trilateral highway.
Meanwhile, 25.6 km Myawaddy-Thinggan Nyenaung-Kawkareik section of the highway is now open. Early this month, the section was formally opened where senior government officials of the three countries were present. Thailand provided assistance for the construction.   
IMT MVA is an outcome of India's 'Look East Policy' under which the largest country of South Asia has been partnering the ASEAN countries in broad spectrum of politics, security and trade.  India has already signed a free-trade agreement (FTA) with ASEAN and it is in operation since 2010.
But trading with ASEAN countries is mostly run on sea route while better connectivity in land routes may reduce the distance and time, and also cost of trade.
Moreover, there is a geo-political consideration. India wants to ensure some strategic advantage over China as there is a kind of `cold war' between these two countries.  South-East Asia is rightly or wrongly considered a region under 'perpetual dominance' of China.  In a similar vein, South Asia is also considered a region under 'perpetual dominance' of India.  In reality, neither China, nor India has such 'perpetual dominance' over these regions.  
To strengthen its strategic position, China is in the process of extending its influence over South Asia. India is in great discomfort over Chinese move and as a counter step, extending cooperation with South-East Asian countries.  IMT MVA is a move in that direction.  
INTRA-REGIONAL TRADE: Like SAARC or BBIN, intra-regional trade of IMT is also very low (see-Table). In 2001, IMT intra-regional trade was $6.3 billion which was below 2.8 per cent of its global trade. In 2014, IMT intra-regional trade stood at $40.84 billion -- still only 3.3 per cent compared to global trade. IMT's global trade grew from $221.43 billion in 2001 to $1235.41 billion last year.
As Myanmar has been gradually opening its economy since 2011, India is trying to increase trade with the resourceful country. Myanmar has good arable land, forestry, minerals, natural gas, fresh water and marine resources, gems and jade. India has targeted some of the attractive segments of the economy. There are the extractive industries, in particular oil and gas, mining and timber.
Bilateral trade between the two countries is still below $3 billion and both are expecting to reach a targeted trade volume of $10 billion by 2020.  India-Myanmar border trade is in operation since 1994. To boost the trade, India opened a new land customs station in Zokhawthar, close to Mizoram's border with Myanmar.
Again, volume of India-Thailand bilateral trade reached at $8 billion last year where Thailand had $2 billion trade surplus. The bilateral trade volume is projected to reach at $12 billion this year. Two countries are now actively negotiating to strike a free trade agreement (FTA). The process was initiated a decade ago.
Interestingly, all the three countries are members of BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral and Technical and Economic Cooperation).   
BANGLADESH SIDELINED: IMT MVA is another clear reflection of India's rigorous move on greater regional connectivity. Although Bangladesh is a small but very important party in the move, the country is yet to start its strategic negotiation in this regard. Bangladesh's effort is still confined within bilateral transhipment and transit with India and sub-regional connectivity under BBIN framework. The country is negotiating charges and fees from India on transit while stronger and long-term beneficial negotiating areas are ignored.   
In fact Bangladesh is a party in the BCIM (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar) economic corridor which envisaged K2K corridor. The 2,800km long route from Kunming to Kolkata via Ruili, Bhamo, Lashio, Mandalay, Tamu, Imphal, Sylhet and Dhaka is considered the best route and part of the historic silk route.
Bangladesh is also in the proposed routes of two of the Asian Highways. The AH-1  starts from Tokyo (connected by ferry) and run through Seoul, Beijing, Ho Chi Minh City, Phnom to Mae Sot, Yangon, Mandalay, Tamu, Moreh, Imphal, Kohima, Dimapur, Nagaon, Jorabat (Guwahati), Shillong, Dawki, Sylhet, Dhaka, Kolkata, Kanpur, New Delhi, Attari, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Kabul, Istanbul till the border of Bulgaria.
The north-eastern part of the highway, known as AH-2, starts from the Indonesian city of Denpasar to Jakarta, Singapore (connected by ferry), Bangkok, Mandalay, Tamu, Moreh, Imphal, Kohima, Dimapur, Nagaon, Jorabat (Guwahati), Shillong, Dawki, Sylhet, Dhaka, Siliguri, Kakarbhitta, Mahendranagar, New Delhi, Attari, Lahore, Quetta and Salafchegan (Tehran).
There are many overlapping routes between these two international highways. Moreover AH-41 is termed as a regional highway passing through Bangladesh from Teknaf to Mongla which has only border connectivity with Myanmar. But from Teknaf, Bangladesh border point with Myanmar, there is no route outlined to go inside Myanmar which virtually restricts Bangladesh's option for wider access to East Asia.
In fact, Bangladesh needs to negotiate with India in this regard as India is the prime mover of the initiative. Bangladesh is also a member of BIMSTEC. So, there is a logical scope to engage in a South-East Asian sub-regional process of integration.
There is little scope for Bangladesh in near future to get access to Thailand and other South-East Asian countries through the short route over Myanmar as road connectivity from Chittagong to Yangon is a distant dream. Sea route is, however, viable and good opportunity is also there to make it vibrant within a short period.
Against the backdrop, Bangladesh's road connectivity with South-East now depends on IMT trilateral highway which is also important to make BCIM economic corridor functional. Thus, Bangladesh's engagement with IMT move is a need of the time.
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