Bangladesh and the changing regional scenario

Noticeable changes are occurring in today's world. Asia is also changing, and its potential is being closely monitored by the Western giants. According to many, the US dominance in every sphere of the present unipolar world is being replaced by increasing influence of other powers. America could foresee Asia's emergence as a future political and economic power, which prompted President Barack Obama to launch a new initiative titled 'Rebalancing Asia' in 2012.
Meanwhile, the election in India, which brought the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to power, has triggered attitudinal changes in three continents - Asia, America and Europe. The honeymoon period of Modi's government is not yet over and the new regime is yet to make any move that has semblance of a policy shift. Nevertheless, India's neighbours and powers, that have geopolitical interests in the region, have been running over each other in a bid to win India's heart. The long Congress rule and its achievements were eclipsed by Narendra Modi's sensational victory, and the world got down to re-strategise relations with India.
Against the backdrop of such a changing scenario, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina recently visited China and Japan in quick succession. Her visits were immediately followed by the visits by Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen and Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj to Bangladesh. The latter's visit, in particular, is viewed by diplomatic circles as an event of immense significance in shaping future Bangladesh-India relations.
Sheikh Hasina's visit to China and Japan has political significance, but the economic impact of the visit is expected to overshadow the political importance. A number of agreements have been signed during the visits.
USA VERSUS CHINA: China, Japan, India and the ASEAN states are becoming increasingly important in world economy transcending the borders of Asia. The USA has realised that it should increase relationship with these countries; and it is working on the formation of a trans-Pacific partnership -- an economic alliance with the countries in the Pacific region. Surprisingly, China has been kept out of the alliance. According to some, the target of the alliance is to encircle China from all sides.  
Obviously, China's reaction to such an alliance is not going to be favourable, if not totally hostile. While the US is aiming at strengthening its relations with its old allies like Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Indonesia, it is also on the hunt for new allies in the region. The US is eager to form a new alliance comprising Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Pakistan, Afghanistan etc.  In short, the USA is working on a long-term objective with a view to bringing a lot of countries under one political and economic framework. Its primary intention is to preserve strategic interest, but an economic interest behind the move cannot be ignored. It has also made clear that it won't mind if China is interested to associate itself with the new economic agenda of the region. As part of the view, it has also accepted China's developing ties with Bangladesh.
'LOOK WEST' POLICY: The most populous country of the world has woken up from slumber and is about to occupy the top spot of world economy. The USA, Japan and European Union have benefited from their relations with China. So also has China. But the country remains concerned at the current economic crisis in the US and Europe and has concentrated on strengthening economic ties with Asian countries. Its attention is now focused on India, Southeast Asia and South Asia in general.
Combined trade volume of India and China was worth US$ 75 billion in 2012, which is expected to reach 200 billion shortly. China is being immensely benefited from this trade because of its export of manufactured goods. Bangladesh is also its important trade partner. China's internal obligations have worked for the country's growing interest in greater trade relations with different countries of the region, including Bangladesh.
China's progress has so far centred round China Sea, more particularly along the east coast. But now it wants to expand its sphere of influence beyond the region. This is being termed its 'Look West' policy. As part of its look-west initiative, relations with south Asia are being strengthened.
 As China is gaining in strength economically, labour cost in the country is rising pushing the production costs of its exportable items up. In order to stay fully alive in the world market in the face of growing labour cost, China will soon need to relocate many of its industries to areas that can provide labour at a cheaper price. Bangladesh could be a top choice in this respect, because of its comparatively cheaper labour cost, and more importantly, it has already acquired the capacity to manufacture world class products.
INDO-BANGLA RELATIONS: India also has a deep-rooted interest in Bangladesh. It has a sizeable volume of exports to Bangladesh, and it wants to further increase the same. On the political front, India has received major support from Bangladesh that helped it in getting rid of security concerns to a large extent.
Considering all these factors, Bangladesh is now better placed diplomatically than ever before, and is now in a position to strike better deals, both politically and economically, with its immediate and close neighbours.
STRATEGIC POSITION: As a country on the coast of Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh now bears far greater significance than ever before.
Economic issues dominated the talks between the Bangladesh Prime Minister and her Japanese counterpart during the premier's recent visit to Japan. But Japan has other interests. It is an aspirant for the candidacy of the UN Security Council non-permanent membership in 2016-17. Japan is not prepared to take any undue risks this time. The present Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who is believed to be a nationalist, has declared a policy of expanding his country's sphere of influence. So the commitment of US$ 6.0 billion in aid made by Japan during our PM's visit to that country is not incidental. There is nothing wrong with a country's effort to uphold its national interest while pursuing its development activities. Since Bangladesh requires foreign loans and grants and investment in its national interests, we need to pay greater attention to the sources which can offer them.
There are reasons to believe that the changed regional perspective has taken Bangladesh to a new height, at least diplomatically -- if not otherwise.
As a country on the coast of the Bay of Bengal, the gateway to the Indian Ocean, the geopolitical importance of Bangladesh has increased manifold. Our bargaining power has also been strengthened. All this is evident from the importance attached to Bangladesh by China and Japan during the Prime Minister's visit to these countries. If we can make the best of the changed scenario, sunny days are definitely ahead of us.
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