Bangladesh at a crossroads

Very few countries have faced such acute and complex challenges as Bangladesh does now after the overthrow of the autocratic regime. To make matters worse, the challenges are not few and they have come thick and fast. On top of these, is the problem that persons, the chief advisor and advisors of the interim government, on whom the responsibility of tiding over the crisis has devolved, are not prepared in the least.
Interim governments are not new in Bangladesh. There have been several caretaker governments in the past, formed under the constitution and a special interim government during 2006-08 outside constitution. The role and responsibility of caretaker governments with tenures of three months were to carry on normal functions of the government till an elected government took office of Bangladesh and to make arrangements for holding general election within a deadline. All the existing ministries and departments under them functioned as during political governments and the caretaker governments did not have to work in a vacuum. There was smooth transition of power from the previous to the next elected government through the intermediation of the caretaker government. The army-inspired interim government of 2006-8 was slightly different, both in terms of the duration and its signature campaign against corruption of high profile figures. But like the caretaker governments that preceded it, the full panoply of government machinery was at its disposal and there was no vacuum creating administrative problems. On the economic front also, neither the caretaker governments, nor the two-year long special government of 2006-8 faced circumstances other than normal, both domestically and externally.
But the present interim government, headed by Professor Yunus as chief advisor and his council of advisors that assumed power on August 8, had no precedent to follow, nor were the circumstances the same. Before the interim government took office, for over a month the streets of all towns and cities, particularly in Dhaka, were virtual battle fields where unarmed students and members of public bravely faced heavily armed police, BGB and army, shouting their demands for resignation of the autocratic government. The vast infrastructure of tyranny and murder, particularly police force, built by the autocratic regime over more than 15 years kissed the ground like a house of cards. There were rumblings within civil service as officers deprived of promotions during the former regime demanded justice. On the other hand, officers who were favoured and helped the previous government in taking anti-people measures became unreliable. So, unlike previous caretaker/interim governments, the interim government of Prof Yunus inherited a demoralized police and a shattered civil service. To make matters worse, a highly politicised judiciary also called for re- structuring and re- organising along with civil and police service reforms.
Law and order: The first and immediate challenge to be met was the deteriorating law and order situation in the country and chaotic traffic in the capital and other cities. This was due to the abscission of police from their places of duty. Having committed excesses, firing live bullets on students and others and killing and injuring many, police fled, fearing for their lives. Many police stations were burnt down and weapons snatched. After the collapse of the autocratic government anti-social elements and criminals took advantage of the absence of police and went into a spree, vandalising and plundering shops and houses. More disconcerting were cases where houses of minorities were attacked and damaged.
After winning victory, students again rose to the occasion to meet the emergent situation. Boys and girls from schools and colleges managed traffic on streets of Dhaka and other cities with practiced ease, being courteous to public all the time. Not only traffic management, students also kept vigil at night, guarding homes and shops in neighbourhoods .While doing these onerous works many of them painted multi-coloured graffiti on walls of Dhaka and other cities. The whole world watched the young students of Bangladesh in awe and wonder. They became the subject of breaking news in many foreign TV channels during the anti- autocracy movement. Now their new incarnation as peacetime volunteers drew praise and acclamation from across the world.
Even before the law and order situation became normal, devastating flood engulfed a wide area in the south, marooning thousands. The students from cities rushed to flood affected areas with relief materials that they had collected. Along with army and navy personnel, the students did their utmost to save lives and help the people in distress. But for their spontaneous participation and contribution to relief work, it would have been difficult for the new government to cope with the situation.
In the midst of all these emergencies and crises, the interim government had to take care of the treatment of the injured. Advisors and co-coordinators visited hospitals and it was announced that all expenses for treatment would be borne by the government. The chief advisor announced setting up a Foundation for assistance to families of the dead and injured students and others.
Under autocratic rule during the past 15 years many disgruntled and aggrieved groups kept quiet for fear of reprisal. After the overthrow of the government on August 5 the lid was blown off and crowds of people assembled on streets and before the residence of the chief advisor, placing their demands. A group of para-military force, Ansar, staged a daylong sit -in inside the secretariat, bringing government almost to a crisis point. Again, students came rushing to rescue the situation at great risk to themselves. With the help of the army the situation was brought under control and unlawfully demonstrating Ansars were dealt with disciplinary action.
Another unforeseen incident that caught the government unawares was the countrywide strike of doctors protesting against violent attack on doctors on duty for alleged negligence in Dhaka Medical College Hospital where a student with accident injuries died. This situation, too, was brought under control before it turned worse. Some saw in the incident a creeping tendency among students to be treated differently, perhaps with preference and this thought bothered many.
Industrial unrest surfaced in some areas where factories were damaged and goods looted, taking advantage of the poor law and order situation immediately after the changeover .Worst affected were garment factories in Dhaka where workers went on strike demanding pay rise and other facilities. As on 10 September, 90 garment factories were closed in Ashulia and Gazipur near Dhaka because of labour unrest (Prothom Alo, Sept 10, 2024). Beside strikes by garment workers, there were reports of unrest in industrial belt in different parts of the country which are thought to be the result of turf wars among godfathers trying to establish their authority in the changed environment.
After completing one month in office on September 8, the most important achievement of the interim government can be said to be restoration of normalcy in law and order to a reasonable degree, thanks to the salutary role played by the army who are still on duty at field levels. Army commissioned officers have been given the power of executive magistrate so that they can perform law and order duty more effectively. Meanwjile, many among police, who do not have prima facie cases of committing excesses and cognisable crimes, have reported back for duty.
Administrative: One of the strategies of the autocratic government was to fill up important posts in various offices with party faithful, irrespective of their competence. After the interim government took office many of the politicised personnel left of their own accord while others’ contracts were terminated. Appointments to vacant posts in secretariat, universities, and various organisations took up some of the valuable time of the government, when it had very little to spare. Within one month, appointments of vice chancellors in at seven universities and principals in 21 colleges have been made. A number of ministries have now new secretaries while deputy commissioners in 25 districts have been replaced. An untoward incident took place in secretariat where a senior officer was heckled and manhandled by juniors unhappy over selection to the post of deputy commissioners, indicating absence of discipline in civil service during the transition. It seems normalcy through transfers and retirement of political appointees will take some more time. Major changes have taken place in police department, with many senior officers transferred, retired or suspended. The immediate past head of police is under arrest and is being investigated. A police commission has been set up to have recommendations for reform of the department. This is going to be a very delicate exercise as the government needs the devoted service of police and taking reform measures that clip their wings may not be to their liking. But the excesses committed by police during the students protest movement showed how important it is to change the mind-set of police through reform. The government cannot downplay the urgent need for this but should tread carefully. This is the most opportune time for police reform, when many in the force realise their mistakes and are full of contrition.
The interim government is committed to try all cases of killings and injuries under the autocratic government. Already UN Human Rights Commission has been contacted for undertaking the investigation. For its part, the government has taken steps for prosecuting offenders of human rights violation through the International Criminal Tribunal in the country for which a prosecutor has been appointed. Trials of many political bigwigs of the former government have been initiated in existing courts some of which may be transferred to the tribunal. But the number of charges against the accused and number of accused in a case have raised doubts among legal experts about the viability of proving the charges. There is a need for scrutiny of each case by a team of legal experts headed by Attorney General to prevent mistakes being made that allows accused to get away or miscarriage of justice taking place for some of them.

The interim government has formed a five-member investigation committee to probe the incidences of forced disappearances people by law enforcement agencies during 2010-2024 ( till August ).The government signed the UN Convention on Disappeared Persons last week, giving the matter high priority as this was among the most notorious heinous crimes of the ousted autocratic government. Six commissions have been formed for recommendations on law, constitution, judiciary, civil service, police and corruptions. Since reform has become an agenda for the interim government because of the demand of the students community, their representation in the committees has to be ensured so that there is ownership of the reform programmes from their side .
In respect of public services supply of power has become irregular in recently as less power is being generated due to shortage of gas and diesel. On average load-shedding of 2000 megawatts is taking place in Dhaka every day (Prothom Alo, September 10, 2024). Outside Dhaka, in rural areas, there is load-shedding for 8-10 hours on average daily, Apart from shortages of diesel and gas, supply from Adani’s power plant in India has been curtailed due to non- payment of US$ 800 million by the previous government, it is reported by the same source. Private Quick Rental Pants, that came into operation, beginning from 2008 and vastly expanded later by the autocratic government, also are not supplying power to the national grid for non-payment of arrear dues. The autocratic government made investment for generation of 27,791 megawatt against demand of 16,000 megawatt and the country is now faced with a situation of excess capacity but unable to generate power for shortage of funds.
To give some relief to consumers, the present government has reduced the prices of octane and diesel. It has also been decided that tariff rates of utilities, including electricity, gas and water will not be raised without consultation with users’ association. These are all positive measures which will some comfort to public.
Economy: On the economic front , the picture is rather bleak, a legacy left by the self-serving and imprudent policies of the former autocratic government. The foreign exchange reserve has now come down to US$ 19.5 billion dollar after paying US$ 1.37 billion to Asian Clear Union (ACU) for imports in July- August. Good news on this front is that bi-lateral and multi-lateral agencies have come forward with assurances of financial assistance. The World Bank, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the US government have recently committed $1 billion, $ 1.5 billion and $ 200 million respectively. The IMF has also responded favourably to the request for $ 3 billion in loan. This news was preceded by reports about remittance is rising in volume from the start of September. According to reports, migrant workers have sent Tk 97.4 million daily in the month of August, as against Tk 73.70 million in August last year. On the external side, in spite of curfew, quota movement, political unrest and flood, exports in July have increased by 3 per cent and in August by 5 per cent. However, the stoppage of work in more than 100 garment factories in September is likely to depress foreign exchange rate earnings through exports.
Regarding inflation, the most critical problem facing the public, particularly, middle, lower-middle class and the poor people, there is no good news. The advisor in charge of finance has told newsmen that the former government borrowed Tk 600 billion from Bangladesh Bank to meet budget deficits which is mainly responsible for rise in prices. Besides, syndicates controlling markets of different items have remained intact even after the fall of the former government, changing their ownership only. According to the finance advisor, the rates of inflation (headcount and core) may come down slightly after four to five months. While it is understandable that significant improvement in inflationary situation is not possible in the near term, some measures to reduce public expenditures could be announced. To facilitate this, a revision of the current budget could be undertaken, an idea that seemed to have occurred to the finance advisor sometime after he assumed office but placed on the backburner now. While decision to resume sell of essential items through TCB is a welcome step, the fixing of prices of some items in retail market appears unrealistic, given past experience. Unless syndicates controlling wholesale markets are controlled the retail market will remain skittish
The interim government has decided to scrap the black money-whitening decision of the previous government in line with its policy of campaign against corruption. But the proposal is yet to be placed before the council of advisors.
In the economy, the banking sector has remained sick for quite some time due mainly to the huge amount (Tk1.10 trillion) of non- performing loans. One source of this default loan is the role of board of directors of seven sick banks. The present governor of Bangladesh Bank (BB) has reconstituted the boards with new chairmen. To assist the sick banks with liquidity, arrangements have been made for them to borrow from inter- bank money market, with the central bank standing as guarantor. To discourage affluent banks from buying government treasury bonds in consideration of safety (as against lending to sick banks), the central bank may consider raising the repo rate.
Management of the macro economy of Bangladesh at this juncture is tricky but assuming no deterioration in law and order takes place, the present policymakers’ decisions may succeed in steering clear of any major turbulence in the near term. The market and the donors/ lenders seem to have got back their confidence in the ability of the present government to act skilfully and honestly.
Diplomatic: Unlike any other governments that preceded it, the interim government finds itself in the midst of almost a quandary in its diplomatic relations. The India-centric foreign policy, espoused by the previous government over a decade and a half, having been ditched has made Bangladesh face an unhappy neighbour. Though the present government seems determined to be free from the legacy of Indian influence, it cannot afford to annoy Modi government because of the various means through which India can create uncomfortable situation for Bangladesh. The present American government became unhappy with the Hasina government because of public utterances against America over minor issues. The Chinese government also felt humiliated when under pressure from India, Hasina government withdrew from the Chinese-financed Teesta river basin project. The present interim government of Prof Yunus thus faces the delicate task of balancing relations with three big powers, keeping the country’s interest high. On top of this, Bangladesh has to be neutral between America and Russia because of our gratitude to Russia for her support during our war of liberation and financing of Rooppur nuclear power project now underway. By any measure, all this tightrope walking is going to require the utmost in diplomatic skill and sagacity, the like of which has not been seen before. The future course of Bangladesh as a nation crucially depends on how this delicate balancing act is carried out. Needless to say, rational thinking and pragmatism should prevail in diplomatic policymaking, now that Bangladesh finds itself free from pivot to any particular country.
Political: Important as all the issues mentioned above are, the success of the interim government will depend on how effectively it carries out reforms programmes and holds the next general election. There are many problems in respect of the first i.e. reforms. Firstly, the reforms have to be on the basis of what the students want to make Bangladesh Boishamyyohin. But as of now, the students have not spelt out what type of reforms they want. Assuming they make it public soon, other political parties have to agree on those. The fact that BNP is flaunting its 31 point manifesto appears to imply that it would like its reform agenda to be accepted in lieu of a lengthy reform programme. Here is a potential for the students and the BNP working at cross purposes. The second problem is that if some of the reform proposals require amendment of the constitution then only the next elected parliament can do that. If there is no agreement in the next parliament on these reforms the way the students may react will remain an imponderable. The third problem involves the time for holding election as there is no tenure fixed for the interim government. BNP, the major political party now active, is keen to have the election as soon as possible, but its erstwhile alliance member Jamaat is in favour of giving the present government enough time to finish its job. The question is: when can ‘mission accomplished’ be announced by the government?
Agreement on tenure and holding the next election by all parties appear to be uncertain as of now. Unless this is resolved soon, the country may be plunged into a political turmoil of another kind.
[email protected]