Bangladesh: Far from being a doomed country
Saturday, 12 December 2009
Enayet Rasul Bhuiyan
Most of the information most of the time-- indicating the future of Bangladesh -- appear to be pessimistic ones. It is generally made out that the future of this country is rather hopeless. Far too many people are already seen living in this tiny country in the physical sense. Thus, anxiety is expressed about the living space for this population which would become even greater in the future not to mention finding the means of sustenance for the growing number.
But Malthus and all other prophets of doom have been proved wrong in the context of Bangladesh. Bangladesh's population nearly doubled in the last three decades. However, so did its food production. Agricultural production has been more than keeping pace with population growth. Thus, Bangladesh has not become a failed state like Sudan or Somalia. It is still a land of hope for its hardworking and resilient people. If only its political leadership improved in their sincerity to truly lead the country in the desired path, then, as most Bangladesh watchers say, this country could attain a much higher level of economic progress by now.
We are always reminded that Bangladesh is one of the poorest countries of the world. But other credible statistics defy this description. For example, on the list of countries of the world ranked for their Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which was prepared by the IMF, Bangladesh stands 58th with GDP to the tune of USD 64,854 million among 180 countries. On the same sort of list prepared by the World Bank, Bangladesh stands at 56th among 183 countries. Again, on the three lists of countries based on their GDP and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), which have been prepared by IMF, World Bank and CIA, Bangladesh ranks at 33, 49, and 31 respectively among 179, 145 and 227 countries. So, how come Bangladesh is so very poor ?
Due to the bad image of the country, we receive minimal foreign direct and indirect investments. For the same cause we receive relatively few tourists, though these days tourism is the number one global export item and our country can be the haven for various types of tourism.
Therefore, it is high time to put Bangladesh in its proper perspective in the international conception. Government must form and execute policies vigorously to this end. The same should be done by all Bangladeshis in their interactions with the world.
A high profile seminar organized jointly by a British research organization and Bangladesh's Ministry of the Environment was held in Dhaka couple of years ago. It was attended by foreign researchers and scientists. Prediction was made from it that some 11 per cent of Bangladesh could be lost to the sea by 2050 from earth warming and the consequent sea level rise. The same sort of very gloomy predictions about Bangladesh are being made at the on going Copenhagen climate conference.
But global climate change is still an uncertain phenomenon. Scientists themselves are divided on the issue. At any rate, there is a consensus scientific opinion worldwide that there is nothing very accurately predictable or ascertainable about climate change and no conclusion can be drawn with absolute certainty . Scientists are only making some hard guesses based on presently available information or statistics that may alter in the near future. For example, they are only making guesses about glacier meltdown and sea level rise. They can have no exact estimation of the extent of that rise because there is now no exact assessment of the rate of glacier meltdown or the melting of the polar caps. None can, therefore, predict accurately the future rate of the sea level rise from such ice melting. The same may be only some centimeters by the middle of the present century and in that case Bangladesh would not be at all affected by sea level rise.
Besides, the concern that was created about earth warming in the eighties led to significant steps taken by the most greenhouse gases emitting country in the nineties and beyond to try and reverse the process. Most of the major industrialized countries - the main emitting countries-are adhering to guidelines under the Kyoto protocol to reduce the level of emission of such gases down to their levels in the seventies. The US has not signed the protocol but under intense international pressure it is likely to do so in the near future. Or, the US is very likely to sign a more comprehensive protocol to emerge following the Copenhagen conference. Besides, the US, on its own, is taking some measures to emit less greenhouse gases.
Therefore, the outlook in the near future is less and less emission of greenhouse gases and the same would be beneficially impacting on the environment and making it unlikely that sea level could rise by several metres to inundate coastal regions including much of Bangladesh. Seminars of this type or international conferences are, thus, quite able to create grave concern while detracting attention from what is at hand and what things are being planned or would be on offer to secure the future of this country.
Regularly received satellite imageries and other tangible supporting evidences suggest that instead of losing land to the sea, Bangladesh is rather about to receive the gift of a huge land mass from its adjoining sea. The size of this land mass, eventually, could be as big as the present size of Bangladesh or even bigger. But it will depend considerably on what the Bangladeshis themselves do-- like the people of Holland did --for lands to rise from the sea and for the same to be joined to the mainland.
Unfortunately, nothing has been noted so far in the country's annual development plans (ADPs) to the effect that the government is paying attention to this issue. No allocations have been made over the years to build dams and other structures to put a pace on the process of accretion of coastal lands. This attitude, undoubtedly, is a serious neglect of the vital national interest.
Successive governments should have done all in their powers to help the land accretion process which holds out so much promise for this land hungry country. Not only doing everything--locally-- to aid the process of land accretion and consolidation, the governments should have been proactive in seeking foreign assistance to realise the same objective.
Already, substantial territories have surfaced in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. Some of these places have completely surfaced and have human habitations on them while others remain submerged during tides to emerge with the ebbing of the tide. The latter types of accreted lands are likely to gain in elevation to be permanently joined to the mainland. Indeed, much of present day Bangladesh including the districts of Faridpur, Barisal, Noakhali, Patuakhali, etc., were formed in this manner over time.
Lands have already emerged from the sea in the coastal areas and more lands from the sea will hopefully rise in the future. But the natural process is a long one. It can be hastened and the technology for it is not so prohibitive or complex either. For Bangladesh, it involves only quickening the process of accretion by establishing structures like cross dams to speed up the rate of deposition of silt in areas that have accreted or nearly accreted.
The country is likely to get a generous response from the international community in matters of fund availability and technical supports if it can show that it is really keen to accrete more lands and has put the endeavour under a systematic policy framework. Holland is one country which has the most experience in getting lands out of the sea. It had a situation worse than Bangladesh in the sense that much of it was so low lying and below the sea level that even high tides and storms in the sea led to its severe flooding and continuing inundation. Today, the Dutch have not only solved these problems through sophisticated engineering works, they have permanently reclaimed vast stretches of lands from the sea and are keeping them dry for various uses within secure barriers or sea walls.
Bangladesh may not have to embark on projects on the same scale as were carried out in Holland because of its relatively better elevation. It can use its huge reservoir of cheap manpower to build simpler projects to get the same kind of results as were achieved in Holland. But for this purpose it needs to engage in a time-bound and result oriented framework of assistance and consultation with that country. Besides, the government of Bangladesh ought to also appeal to the international community to provide funds to it for the purpose.
The developed countries, specially the United States, are the main contributors to the greenhouse syndrome which could affect Bangladesh. Therefore, it would be only conscionable for these countries to help out Bangladesh in projects designed to secure its coastal areas and for their enlargement. Even if external aid is not forthcoming, the government can proceed with dams and other structures where these will yield almost immediate benefits in the form of lands rising from the sea on a sustainable basis. The taking up of such projects and their successful execution are quite possible for Bangladesh by mobilising its own resources and applying its own expertise.
One may say that the cyclone hazards can be serious in the coastal areas. But these hazards are not as these used to be in the past. Few people have died from these cyclones in recent years and much less resources were destroyed from cyclones . The creation of a network of cyclone shelters and other forms of preparedness for disasters have led to such favourable developments. With the establishment of a greater number of cyclone shelters and extending the system of preparedness, there would be no reason for a far bigger number of people than at present not to be living and working safely in viable occupations in the coastal areas including the already accreted lands and the about to be accreted lands. This would only disprove the other prediction made at the climate change seminar - the displacement of some 5.5 million people from Bangladesh's coastal areas by 2050.
Apart from greater human settlement in the coastal areas or accreted lands to ease the pressure of population, the same areas can play a far bigger role for the national economy in contrast to the present. Coastal areas -- specially the coastal islands -- are hugely prospective from the perspective of tourism. Tourist resorts established in the coastal islands-- like in the Maldives-- can be very paying in terms of foreign tourist arrivals.
Shrimp has been a major item in our export trade in recent years. The coastal areas are exclusively suitable for shrimp cultivation for the export market. Extension of planned shrimp cultivation in the coastal area is possible to many times increase earnings from this sector. Not only shrimp, but sea fishes, crabs, etc., that are generally described as frozen food and exported from Bangladesh, the catches or cultivation of these can be remarkably increased in the coastal areas with infrastructure developments by the public sector to promote more private sector investments in such activities.
Valuable deposits of minerals exist in the sandy beaches of the coastal areas such as zircon, rutile, titanium, etc. It is quite possible to extract these minerals and earn huge amounts in foreign currency. The coastal areas are also known to have huge deposits of hydrocarbons like oil and gas. Only limited exploitation of these resources have started with the offshore drilling at Sangu for gas. But gradually, over time, these energy resources can be tapped extensively for the benefit of the country.
Most of the information most of the time-- indicating the future of Bangladesh -- appear to be pessimistic ones. It is generally made out that the future of this country is rather hopeless. Far too many people are already seen living in this tiny country in the physical sense. Thus, anxiety is expressed about the living space for this population which would become even greater in the future not to mention finding the means of sustenance for the growing number.
But Malthus and all other prophets of doom have been proved wrong in the context of Bangladesh. Bangladesh's population nearly doubled in the last three decades. However, so did its food production. Agricultural production has been more than keeping pace with population growth. Thus, Bangladesh has not become a failed state like Sudan or Somalia. It is still a land of hope for its hardworking and resilient people. If only its political leadership improved in their sincerity to truly lead the country in the desired path, then, as most Bangladesh watchers say, this country could attain a much higher level of economic progress by now.
We are always reminded that Bangladesh is one of the poorest countries of the world. But other credible statistics defy this description. For example, on the list of countries of the world ranked for their Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which was prepared by the IMF, Bangladesh stands 58th with GDP to the tune of USD 64,854 million among 180 countries. On the same sort of list prepared by the World Bank, Bangladesh stands at 56th among 183 countries. Again, on the three lists of countries based on their GDP and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), which have been prepared by IMF, World Bank and CIA, Bangladesh ranks at 33, 49, and 31 respectively among 179, 145 and 227 countries. So, how come Bangladesh is so very poor ?
Due to the bad image of the country, we receive minimal foreign direct and indirect investments. For the same cause we receive relatively few tourists, though these days tourism is the number one global export item and our country can be the haven for various types of tourism.
Therefore, it is high time to put Bangladesh in its proper perspective in the international conception. Government must form and execute policies vigorously to this end. The same should be done by all Bangladeshis in their interactions with the world.
A high profile seminar organized jointly by a British research organization and Bangladesh's Ministry of the Environment was held in Dhaka couple of years ago. It was attended by foreign researchers and scientists. Prediction was made from it that some 11 per cent of Bangladesh could be lost to the sea by 2050 from earth warming and the consequent sea level rise. The same sort of very gloomy predictions about Bangladesh are being made at the on going Copenhagen climate conference.
But global climate change is still an uncertain phenomenon. Scientists themselves are divided on the issue. At any rate, there is a consensus scientific opinion worldwide that there is nothing very accurately predictable or ascertainable about climate change and no conclusion can be drawn with absolute certainty . Scientists are only making some hard guesses based on presently available information or statistics that may alter in the near future. For example, they are only making guesses about glacier meltdown and sea level rise. They can have no exact estimation of the extent of that rise because there is now no exact assessment of the rate of glacier meltdown or the melting of the polar caps. None can, therefore, predict accurately the future rate of the sea level rise from such ice melting. The same may be only some centimeters by the middle of the present century and in that case Bangladesh would not be at all affected by sea level rise.
Besides, the concern that was created about earth warming in the eighties led to significant steps taken by the most greenhouse gases emitting country in the nineties and beyond to try and reverse the process. Most of the major industrialized countries - the main emitting countries-are adhering to guidelines under the Kyoto protocol to reduce the level of emission of such gases down to their levels in the seventies. The US has not signed the protocol but under intense international pressure it is likely to do so in the near future. Or, the US is very likely to sign a more comprehensive protocol to emerge following the Copenhagen conference. Besides, the US, on its own, is taking some measures to emit less greenhouse gases.
Therefore, the outlook in the near future is less and less emission of greenhouse gases and the same would be beneficially impacting on the environment and making it unlikely that sea level could rise by several metres to inundate coastal regions including much of Bangladesh. Seminars of this type or international conferences are, thus, quite able to create grave concern while detracting attention from what is at hand and what things are being planned or would be on offer to secure the future of this country.
Regularly received satellite imageries and other tangible supporting evidences suggest that instead of losing land to the sea, Bangladesh is rather about to receive the gift of a huge land mass from its adjoining sea. The size of this land mass, eventually, could be as big as the present size of Bangladesh or even bigger. But it will depend considerably on what the Bangladeshis themselves do-- like the people of Holland did --for lands to rise from the sea and for the same to be joined to the mainland.
Unfortunately, nothing has been noted so far in the country's annual development plans (ADPs) to the effect that the government is paying attention to this issue. No allocations have been made over the years to build dams and other structures to put a pace on the process of accretion of coastal lands. This attitude, undoubtedly, is a serious neglect of the vital national interest.
Successive governments should have done all in their powers to help the land accretion process which holds out so much promise for this land hungry country. Not only doing everything--locally-- to aid the process of land accretion and consolidation, the governments should have been proactive in seeking foreign assistance to realise the same objective.
Already, substantial territories have surfaced in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. Some of these places have completely surfaced and have human habitations on them while others remain submerged during tides to emerge with the ebbing of the tide. The latter types of accreted lands are likely to gain in elevation to be permanently joined to the mainland. Indeed, much of present day Bangladesh including the districts of Faridpur, Barisal, Noakhali, Patuakhali, etc., were formed in this manner over time.
Lands have already emerged from the sea in the coastal areas and more lands from the sea will hopefully rise in the future. But the natural process is a long one. It can be hastened and the technology for it is not so prohibitive or complex either. For Bangladesh, it involves only quickening the process of accretion by establishing structures like cross dams to speed up the rate of deposition of silt in areas that have accreted or nearly accreted.
The country is likely to get a generous response from the international community in matters of fund availability and technical supports if it can show that it is really keen to accrete more lands and has put the endeavour under a systematic policy framework. Holland is one country which has the most experience in getting lands out of the sea. It had a situation worse than Bangladesh in the sense that much of it was so low lying and below the sea level that even high tides and storms in the sea led to its severe flooding and continuing inundation. Today, the Dutch have not only solved these problems through sophisticated engineering works, they have permanently reclaimed vast stretches of lands from the sea and are keeping them dry for various uses within secure barriers or sea walls.
Bangladesh may not have to embark on projects on the same scale as were carried out in Holland because of its relatively better elevation. It can use its huge reservoir of cheap manpower to build simpler projects to get the same kind of results as were achieved in Holland. But for this purpose it needs to engage in a time-bound and result oriented framework of assistance and consultation with that country. Besides, the government of Bangladesh ought to also appeal to the international community to provide funds to it for the purpose.
The developed countries, specially the United States, are the main contributors to the greenhouse syndrome which could affect Bangladesh. Therefore, it would be only conscionable for these countries to help out Bangladesh in projects designed to secure its coastal areas and for their enlargement. Even if external aid is not forthcoming, the government can proceed with dams and other structures where these will yield almost immediate benefits in the form of lands rising from the sea on a sustainable basis. The taking up of such projects and their successful execution are quite possible for Bangladesh by mobilising its own resources and applying its own expertise.
One may say that the cyclone hazards can be serious in the coastal areas. But these hazards are not as these used to be in the past. Few people have died from these cyclones in recent years and much less resources were destroyed from cyclones . The creation of a network of cyclone shelters and other forms of preparedness for disasters have led to such favourable developments. With the establishment of a greater number of cyclone shelters and extending the system of preparedness, there would be no reason for a far bigger number of people than at present not to be living and working safely in viable occupations in the coastal areas including the already accreted lands and the about to be accreted lands. This would only disprove the other prediction made at the climate change seminar - the displacement of some 5.5 million people from Bangladesh's coastal areas by 2050.
Apart from greater human settlement in the coastal areas or accreted lands to ease the pressure of population, the same areas can play a far bigger role for the national economy in contrast to the present. Coastal areas -- specially the coastal islands -- are hugely prospective from the perspective of tourism. Tourist resorts established in the coastal islands-- like in the Maldives-- can be very paying in terms of foreign tourist arrivals.
Shrimp has been a major item in our export trade in recent years. The coastal areas are exclusively suitable for shrimp cultivation for the export market. Extension of planned shrimp cultivation in the coastal area is possible to many times increase earnings from this sector. Not only shrimp, but sea fishes, crabs, etc., that are generally described as frozen food and exported from Bangladesh, the catches or cultivation of these can be remarkably increased in the coastal areas with infrastructure developments by the public sector to promote more private sector investments in such activities.
Valuable deposits of minerals exist in the sandy beaches of the coastal areas such as zircon, rutile, titanium, etc. It is quite possible to extract these minerals and earn huge amounts in foreign currency. The coastal areas are also known to have huge deposits of hydrocarbons like oil and gas. Only limited exploitation of these resources have started with the offshore drilling at Sangu for gas. But gradually, over time, these energy resources can be tapped extensively for the benefit of the country.