Bangladesh should not be caught napping
Thursday, 13 August 2009
Enayet Rasul Bhuiyan
'Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty.' So it was stated by the renowned nineteenth century American columnist and orator, Wendell Phillips. The high relevance of these words of wisdom spring to mind in relation to the present state of tensions in the Myanmar-Bangladesh borders. This is not to say that Bangladesh authorities are completely unmindful of the need to be watchful in relation to what ought to be Myanmar's eyebrow-raising military build ups in areas too close to its borders for comfort. The point is that Bangladesh for no fault on its part has been suffering from only adversarial relations with Myanmar with no signs that the generals in Rangoon really wish to abide by the rules which are respected internationally.
That is why there is the need for extra caution on the part of Bangladesh. Myanmar cannot be trusted with sensible or pacific intentions. If it were otherwise, then it would not push into Bangladesh as many as 300,000 Muslims of Myanmar origin from its Arakan state in 1988 after inflicting tortures on them in a manner not much different from the ethnic cleansing of the Muslims in Bosnia by the Serbs. The fact is that Myanmar is no democracy or a pluralistic society where clamour for human rights, adherence to international norms and standards, etc., have any chance of a patient observance. It is one of the few Stalinist type bastions of totalitarian governance in the world today. Ruled by a bunch of xenophobic generals whose instincts are further laced by ugly racialism, Myanmar today is a pariah state in the international sense. But the country has the largest military in south-east Asia and the fanaticism of its leaders to be guided by no reason in dealings with outsiders, would make it dangerous for any neigbouring country to be tangled in a bitter confrontation with it.
Thus, Bangladesh needs to adopt carefully studied strategies and not always conventional ones based on assumptions of responsible and duly responsive reactions from Myanmar like the rest of the law-abiding members of the international community. It would be foolhardy to think that Myanmar has backed away on an enduring basis from its confrontation with Bangladesh in grabbing territories in the sea, also claimed by the latter. The backing away from the naval confrontation was only a transient tactic. Notwithstanding its huge army, the Myanmar navy is a fledgling one compared to Bangladesh. Therefore, it withdrew from the spot but did not in the least abandon the intention to reappear. Rather, it seems the pinched vanity of the generals in Rangoon have made them more grimly committed to teach Bangladesh a lesson.
Reports appeared in the Bangladesh and international media as well about the frenzy in Rangoon to specially go for a fast military build up against Bangladesh. What Myanmar could not accomplish in the sea because of the relative weakness of its navy, it may seek to compensate on the ground through its army that outnumbers Bangladesh by nearly three to one.
Reports speak of very energetic activities of Myanmar in the Bangladesh-Myanmar frontiers. Roads and other infrastructures including new airfields are being built with remarkable speed along with vast increases in the presence of regulars of the Myanmar army at these places. Reportedly, Myanmar is building a new naval cum military base at a place called Mutek, facing the Bay of Bengal and very near Bangladesh. Heavy military arsenals have been also mobilised. The preparations are certainly not of a defensive type but smack of aggressive intentions. It could well be that Rangoon would set the stage for a direct clash on the land borders to avenge their humiliation on the sea.
A few weeks ago, the Myanmar army turned up in Mongdu and Alitanjo to evict ethnic Muslim Rohingyas from their ancestral homeland. They forcibly acquired around 1,000 acres of arable land and distributed it among the Buddhist citizens of Mongdu town. The authority has also told the Rohingyas to go to the hills or to take refuge in Bangladesh. Bangladeshi authorities have noted a small but regular infiltration of Rhohingya Muslim refugees from Myanmar to Bangladesh in recent months. They speak of terrors again being unleashed on them by Rangoon's troops as in 1988 with the aim of completely flushing the Arakan clean of Rohingya Muslims who have been living there for centuries and should be entitled to be treated as full Myanmar citizens like the others.
It is very likely that the generals are out to create an intolerable situation over the Rohingyas and at some stage to draw the Bangladesh army into a direct conflict over the issue. Once they get this opportunity, they could be planning to invade Bangladesh and hold territory and bargain it for return on the pledge that Bangladesh would drop its claim on the Bay of Bengal that concerns them.
Thus, Bangladesh has every reason to be extremely wary about this hostile posture on the part of Myanmar. Another intelligence failure of the type that aided the BDR mutiny, ought not to create a situation when the generals in Rangoon would get a ripe fruit for plucking from the unpreparedness on the part of Bangladesh. However, this is not to advocate that Bangladesh should engage in a heavy military build-up of its own to foil any adventurous move on the part of Rangoon. But it should deploy and maintain adequate forces on the ground immediately in areas where attacks from across the border, may occur. Vital infrastructures like the Kaptai hydel project, Eastern Refinery and other major installations which appear vulnerable, must be protected against any surprise attack.
Bangladesh should have no incentive for starting a war with any of its neighbours. It has many things to lose from any war such as the gains from its enviable economic growth over the years, damages to its infrastructures and various resources . The political system of Bangladesh with an elective, democratic and accountable system of governance, also cannot admit military aggression of any sort. But forced to it, Bangladesh must not keep itself exposed and unguarded either from any reckless move on the part of an unconscionable neighbour.
But the highest stress on its part to counter Myanmar's aggressiveness should be put on diplomacy. China has the greatest influence on Myanmar at present. China also is a friend of Bangladesh. Bangladesh must use its China card to restrain the generals in Rangoon from indulging in any misadventure against it. It should also seek to apply all other forms of international pressure on Myanmar to rethink its aggressive plans against Bangladesh.
'Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty.' So it was stated by the renowned nineteenth century American columnist and orator, Wendell Phillips. The high relevance of these words of wisdom spring to mind in relation to the present state of tensions in the Myanmar-Bangladesh borders. This is not to say that Bangladesh authorities are completely unmindful of the need to be watchful in relation to what ought to be Myanmar's eyebrow-raising military build ups in areas too close to its borders for comfort. The point is that Bangladesh for no fault on its part has been suffering from only adversarial relations with Myanmar with no signs that the generals in Rangoon really wish to abide by the rules which are respected internationally.
That is why there is the need for extra caution on the part of Bangladesh. Myanmar cannot be trusted with sensible or pacific intentions. If it were otherwise, then it would not push into Bangladesh as many as 300,000 Muslims of Myanmar origin from its Arakan state in 1988 after inflicting tortures on them in a manner not much different from the ethnic cleansing of the Muslims in Bosnia by the Serbs. The fact is that Myanmar is no democracy or a pluralistic society where clamour for human rights, adherence to international norms and standards, etc., have any chance of a patient observance. It is one of the few Stalinist type bastions of totalitarian governance in the world today. Ruled by a bunch of xenophobic generals whose instincts are further laced by ugly racialism, Myanmar today is a pariah state in the international sense. But the country has the largest military in south-east Asia and the fanaticism of its leaders to be guided by no reason in dealings with outsiders, would make it dangerous for any neigbouring country to be tangled in a bitter confrontation with it.
Thus, Bangladesh needs to adopt carefully studied strategies and not always conventional ones based on assumptions of responsible and duly responsive reactions from Myanmar like the rest of the law-abiding members of the international community. It would be foolhardy to think that Myanmar has backed away on an enduring basis from its confrontation with Bangladesh in grabbing territories in the sea, also claimed by the latter. The backing away from the naval confrontation was only a transient tactic. Notwithstanding its huge army, the Myanmar navy is a fledgling one compared to Bangladesh. Therefore, it withdrew from the spot but did not in the least abandon the intention to reappear. Rather, it seems the pinched vanity of the generals in Rangoon have made them more grimly committed to teach Bangladesh a lesson.
Reports appeared in the Bangladesh and international media as well about the frenzy in Rangoon to specially go for a fast military build up against Bangladesh. What Myanmar could not accomplish in the sea because of the relative weakness of its navy, it may seek to compensate on the ground through its army that outnumbers Bangladesh by nearly three to one.
Reports speak of very energetic activities of Myanmar in the Bangladesh-Myanmar frontiers. Roads and other infrastructures including new airfields are being built with remarkable speed along with vast increases in the presence of regulars of the Myanmar army at these places. Reportedly, Myanmar is building a new naval cum military base at a place called Mutek, facing the Bay of Bengal and very near Bangladesh. Heavy military arsenals have been also mobilised. The preparations are certainly not of a defensive type but smack of aggressive intentions. It could well be that Rangoon would set the stage for a direct clash on the land borders to avenge their humiliation on the sea.
A few weeks ago, the Myanmar army turned up in Mongdu and Alitanjo to evict ethnic Muslim Rohingyas from their ancestral homeland. They forcibly acquired around 1,000 acres of arable land and distributed it among the Buddhist citizens of Mongdu town. The authority has also told the Rohingyas to go to the hills or to take refuge in Bangladesh. Bangladeshi authorities have noted a small but regular infiltration of Rhohingya Muslim refugees from Myanmar to Bangladesh in recent months. They speak of terrors again being unleashed on them by Rangoon's troops as in 1988 with the aim of completely flushing the Arakan clean of Rohingya Muslims who have been living there for centuries and should be entitled to be treated as full Myanmar citizens like the others.
It is very likely that the generals are out to create an intolerable situation over the Rohingyas and at some stage to draw the Bangladesh army into a direct conflict over the issue. Once they get this opportunity, they could be planning to invade Bangladesh and hold territory and bargain it for return on the pledge that Bangladesh would drop its claim on the Bay of Bengal that concerns them.
Thus, Bangladesh has every reason to be extremely wary about this hostile posture on the part of Myanmar. Another intelligence failure of the type that aided the BDR mutiny, ought not to create a situation when the generals in Rangoon would get a ripe fruit for plucking from the unpreparedness on the part of Bangladesh. However, this is not to advocate that Bangladesh should engage in a heavy military build-up of its own to foil any adventurous move on the part of Rangoon. But it should deploy and maintain adequate forces on the ground immediately in areas where attacks from across the border, may occur. Vital infrastructures like the Kaptai hydel project, Eastern Refinery and other major installations which appear vulnerable, must be protected against any surprise attack.
Bangladesh should have no incentive for starting a war with any of its neighbours. It has many things to lose from any war such as the gains from its enviable economic growth over the years, damages to its infrastructures and various resources . The political system of Bangladesh with an elective, democratic and accountable system of governance, also cannot admit military aggression of any sort. But forced to it, Bangladesh must not keep itself exposed and unguarded either from any reckless move on the part of an unconscionable neighbour.
But the highest stress on its part to counter Myanmar's aggressiveness should be put on diplomacy. China has the greatest influence on Myanmar at present. China also is a friend of Bangladesh. Bangladesh must use its China card to restrain the generals in Rangoon from indulging in any misadventure against it. It should also seek to apply all other forms of international pressure on Myanmar to rethink its aggressive plans against Bangladesh.