Bangladesh: Slipping back?

Eminent economist Debraj Ray once remarked: "economic development is probably more like a treacherous road, than a divided highway where only the privileged minority is destined to ever drive the fast lane. Although there appears to be no evidence that poor countries are doomed to eternal poverty, there is some indication that low incomes are very sticky".
Arguably, Bangladesh has been passing through this patchy path since its birth in 1971. In the very early years of independence, pessimism pervaded through the country's economic prospects. The rude remark from the then US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger that Bangladesh would remain as a basket case went to rock, if not  raze, the hope of those dearly nourishing the dream of a Sonar Bangla (Golden Bengal).
Another suffocating submission came from Just Faaland and J Parkinson in their book, Bangladesh: The Test Case for Development (1975). In the book they have argued that if Bangladesh could attain development, there would be no other country in the world without it.
Again, Sadanad Dhume, a columnist of the Wall Street Journal, has seemingly summarized the earlier pessimisms: "nearly forty years ago, only the most reckless optimist would have bet on flood-prone, war ravaged Bangladesh over relatively stable and prosperous Pakistan" (The Daily Star, October 1, 2010).
However, Bangladesh could appreciably manage to thrive through thick and thin. It is true that she has to continuously confront the debilitating impacts of acutely adverse land-man ratio, poor natural resource base, bad governance, frequent attacks from natural hazards, and the curse of the climate change. But despite all the odds over the head, Bangladesh has so displayed shining successes in different fronts, notwithstanding the question of sustaining them.
The emerging belief is that Bangladesh's resilience has gradually improved with respect to per capita income, food security, infant and maternal mortality, disaster management, micro-credit programmes, and income and non-income poverty. The receipt of a prize by the Prime minister of Bangladesh from UN can be taken as a pat on Bangladesh's back as far as the meeting of the Millennium Development Goals are concerned. And all of these achievements clearly show that the country could confound the critics who have made chilling forecasts immediately after independence.
To corroborate the last statement, we can mention that some pessimists have already retreated from their projection about Bangladesh. For example, Just Faaland and J Parkinson  visited Bangladesh after 37 years in 2007 to recast their test case syndrome: "....At this point, with three decades and more of experience of limited and chequered progress, sustainable development in Bangladesh appears to us within reach, though far from assured..." . On the other hand, Sadanand Dhume concluded his column with the following comment: "...Bangladesh ought to be held up as a role model, especially for the subcontinent's other Muslim-majority state....with a higher growth rate, a lower birth rate, and a more internationally competitive economy, yesterday's basket case may have the last laugh".
It is true, and said earlier, that Bangladesh witnessed exhilarating progress on some socio-economic indicators over time, but things could have been much better. The remarks on the performance of our economy, society, politics and culture that come out of the analytical discourse convergence to the conclusion that, during the last forty years, achievements were far short of expectations. According to the 'neo-pessimists', the performance record of Bangladesh doesn't at all ravish - rather disconcertingly raze hopes and aspirations - as successive regimes at the pinnacle of power have grievously used the basic institutions to suit their personal needs. In consequence, institutional developments to further the progress of the society were severely constrained.
Everyone would possibly agree that the experience of last forty years belies the gloomy predictions of pessimists. There are many fronts through which the country has progressed but to mention a few: per capita income in real terms has more than doubled; economic growth rate ran at 6.0 per cent per annum for consecutive some years; food production has tripled; population growth rate has drastically decelerated, poverty has gone down over time etc. More importantly, dependence on aid has dramatically declined; significant strides in social indicators like life expectancy, infant mortality, education etc. has been achieved. So far so good.
But all that glitters may not be gold. Now let's say a few words in respect of the darker sides of the tunnel. The above-mentioned promising achievements though laudable, are not enough.  These gains have not been consolidated as yet. The likelihood of reversal of many of these trends cannot be ruled out. Signs of slippages and reversals are already looming large on the horizon.  
Take the case of the most recent political impasse - both government and opposition at loggard's head. Political disturbances are not new in this country and we have been living with that for a pretty long time. But the most recent turmoil is unprecedented as far as the cost on human lives and properties are concerned. For the last few months or so, the country has been cut off from productive pursuits. The capital city is disconnected from the rest of the country. Cocktails, petrol bombs heralded on passenger buses, police force, important government properties are ominous signs.  
Series of blockades and hartals along with terrorist activities are hindering the progress that we often are proud of. Most importantly, unlike in the past, the informal sector that absorbs most of the poor has been hit below the belt to push up the incidence of poverty. By and large, the economic growth rate is projected to grow by 5.5 per cent during the current fiscal which is much the target.
One of the lamentable paradoxes of Bangladesh is that here politics and economy are moving in opposite directions and pointing to this allows me to cite impression of a scholar, Dr Akbar Ali Khan, on this: in 1971 Bangladesh emerged as an extraordinarily homogeneous nation which was strong enough to weather any political storm. However, her economy was in shambles in the wake of the bloodiest war in her history. Today she has a vibrant economy with a divided nation locked in a bitter struggle for partisan supremacy.
The democracy in Bangladesh has none of the characteristics of classical democracy as championed by Pericles. A black hole of confrontational politics threatens to engulf Bangladesh. There are two ominous trends. First, the incentive structure in the society has been severely undermined by the stark failure of successive governments to discriminate between the good and the bad. Secondly, the erosion of tolerance has created a vicious cycle of confrontational politics and violence. These ominous trends reinforce the evil forces of state failure.
Bangladesh should learn fast from her own experience of last forty years. As the distinguished philosopher George Santayana rightly warned, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." And lest we repeat past follies, it becomes an obligation to sit in a dialogue to resolve the ongoing political conundrum. WE should never pursue a politics that results in a zero-sum game in the lon-g-run where every side loses.
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The writer is a Professor of Economics at Jahangirnagar University. Email:[email protected]