Bangladesh\\\'s tryst with democracy and India

One by one, the European Union, the Commonwealth, the United States and at the time of filing this article even Russia (!) have distanced themselves from the January 05 election. Their decisions have rendered the election to parliament irrelevant and for all practical purpose, the 10th parliament will be stillborn. With 154 members of a 300-parliament already declared winners without any contest, only those who are in deep denial would consider that the election for the remaining 146 seats would render even an iota of credibility to the futile efforts of the Election Commission to give the country the 10th parliament.
All of Bangladesh's friends and organisations that have interest in the country have played their hands. They want the Awami League (AL) and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) to enter into discussions so that the country would have 'inclusive' election that is the only way for the country to avert self-destruction. For well-known reasons, the ruling party is in denial over the message strongly sent to it from overseas but also from acknowledging that it will be sending Bangladesh into the Guinness Book of Records for 'electing' the majority seats of the country's parliament without bothering about the voters. Unfortunately, in contrast to this 'ostrich' mentality of the ruling party, the rest of the country and the world are astounded by the fact that a democratic country like Bangladesh could be doing such an incredible thing where over half the people have been disenfranchised!
In all that is happening, it is the role of India that is as unbelievable as the state of denial of the ruling party. December is a month of great reckoning for the people of Bangladesh because it is in this month that the Pakistanis surrendered and Bangladesh was liberated. In that liberation, the people of Bangladesh acknowledge the role of India without whose support and sacrifice the country would not have come out of the genocide of the Pakistan army that was hell-bent to kill the last Bangladeshi to keep the eastern wing under Pakistan's control. Therefore, it is with a sense of deep disappointment that the people of Bangladesh outside the ruling party have watched the inexplicable role of India in the country's current predicament where it is supporting the decision of the AL-led government to push ahead with the 'exclusive' election without the BNP.
Ever since the 15th Amendment, there were many who were apprehensive that the BNP and the AL would take the country to the edge over the way to hold the election. They felt that the role of India would be crucial in saving Bangladesh from going over the edge on the widely-held perception that New Delhi's Congress-led government is very close and friendly with the AL-led government. People were encouraged when on a visit to Bangladesh in 2012, Pranab Mukherjee, at that time the Finance Minister of India, later to become the President, had said that India's relation with Bangladesh is with the country and not with a political party. Bangladeshis believed that India would play a neutral role in the event politics became controversial and conflict-ridden.
Meanwhile, the BNP also changed its India policy. It made public statements that if returned to power, it would be positive like the AL-led government on India's security needs. The BNP also expressed positive interest about the issue of regional connectivity with Bangladesh as the hub that it had unequivocally opposed when it was being sold as land transit. The BNP made it clear to New Delhi that it was ready to do business with India on a reciprocal basis and that India had no reason to be apprehensive of the BNP returning to power.
The visit of Begum Zia to New Delhi at the end of last year enhanced people's positive perception about India. Although India's failure to deliver the land border agreement (LBA) and the Teesta deal was a great disappointment, yet the promise that New Delhi held out for the deals and the explanation that it was domestic politics that was responsible for the failure to deliver the deals helped contain the rise of anti-India feelings in the country. The BNP also refrained from putting New Delhi on the dock over the issue that was a very positive gesture on its part.
New Delhi appeared to be on track with the promise Pranab Mukherjee had made about dealing with Bangladesh and not with a political party but only up to the emergence of the Shahbag Gonojagoron Mancha. Unfortunately, with the rise of Shahbag, it again turned to its old policy of dealing with Bangladesh with the Awami League only. The Indian President on his state visit to Dhaka said his heart was with the Shahbag Mancha. By then, the Mancha had become even more anti-BNP/Jamaat.
The BNP made a mistake at that time in the context of Bangladesh-India relations. It cancelled a meeting between Begum Khaleda Zia and the Indian President; it was taken as an affront by New Delhi.  Although this could have been an affront, the Indians failed to consider the BNP's predicament at that time when it was facing a movement of the youth that the AL-led government had succeeded in turning into an anti-BNP movement to which New Delhi had rendered its official support. Therefore, while New Delhi could have blamed the BNP for cancellation of the appointment, it did not see its own role in the events of the time and used the cancellation as an excuse to return to its original polity of dealing with Bangladesh through only the Awami League.
New Delhi saw in the Shahbag Mancha the potential to defeat the BNP/Jamaat and give the AL a second consecutive term that it needed very badly for securing on a permanent basis its security interests and other short and long-term needs in Bangladesh. In believing Shahbag would deliver these objectives, New Delhi went into denial about how Shahbag self-destructed itself on the issue of Islam and also in the process gave the ruling party a dangerous label of a party with issues with Islam. New Delhi also went into denial about the growing support in the country and abroad for 'inclusive' national election and refused to see the message that the voters of the country had sent through the five City Corporation elections.
New Delhi chose to go into denial on the political reality in Bangladesh in order to see that the AL returned to power at any cost. New Delhi instead sent its Foreign Secretary to Dhaka as a show of support for the AL-led government for its decision to hold the one-party election. She met former President HM Ershad and tried to persuade his party to join the election to give it credibility after the BNP had refused to participate. HM Ershad, instead of being persuaded, revealed to the media what the Indian Foreign Secretary had attempted and thereby exposed the low levels to which the once respected Indian diplomacy had fallen.
New Delhi unfortunately refused to accept that it had been exposed to a loss of face that it perhaps did not ever face in the past in pursuing its diplomatic objectives.  Instead, when Sujata Singh went to Washington for bilateral consultations, she continued to pursue New Delhi's blatant interference in Bangladesh's domestic politics in pursuance of its national interests by trying to convince the USA to take sides in favour of the AL against the BNP. Washington did not appreciate such high-handedness on India's part and there are good reasons to believe that the current diplomatic spat between the US and India has resulted from their differences over Bangladesh's current political predicament.
That India, a country that makes high claims for democracy and diplomacy, would pursue its support for the AL so openly is inexplicable. In pursuing such an inexplicable course, India is fast depleting its goodwill in Bangladesh for its role in 1971. The vast majority of the people of the country believe that India alone among Bangladesh's friends can bring sanity to the country where the way to regain that sanity is for the country to have 'inclusive' election that it is obstructing.
The writer is a retired                            career Ambassador. [email protected]