Battle for the floating voter
Tuesday, 20 November 2007
Barney Jopson from Nairobi
IT was only when arrows began to whizz past the head of William Ruto, a leading light in the Kenyan opposition, that it became clear just how close the race to be the country's next president would be.
The parliamentarian had arrived by helicopter at a government fundraiser to which he was not invited, antagonising supporters of the roads minister who was presiding over the event.
Young men with bows and arrows arrived to assert the minister's authority by shooting at Mr Ruto, who turned on his heels and fled. He was eventually saved by a minibus that dragged him to safety, leaving a pair of shredded trousers and a gashed knee as a souvenir.
Two months ago, when President Mwai Kibaki appeared to be coasting to victory, it would have been unthinkable for the disorganised opposition to be so bold, or for government loyalists to lash out at it so violently.
But with the election now set for December 27, the country has seen a remarkable turnaround, which is attributable to the opposition's canny exploitation of a crossover between ethnic sensibilities and the president's perceived failure to fulfil his promises.
If opinion polls are to be believed, Mr Kibaki, 75, is heading for defeat and the arrow attack spoke volumes about the alarm, if not panic, that has gripped the president's team. Back in July, a poll from the Steadman Group showed 45 per cent of people intending to vote for the president versus 25 per cent for Raila Odinga, 62, the presidential candidate of Mr Ruto's Orange Democratic Movement.
But in a poll published at the start of October, a few days after the arrow attack, Mr Odinga's ratings had soared to 47 per cent while the president slipped back to 38 per cent. Political sentiment is capricious, but several subsequent polls from different organisations suggest Mr Odinga has extended his lead. "It's a hell of a lot closer than people thought," says Tom Wolf, an analyst at Steadman. "The closer it looks the higher the risk of trouble, both in terms of tensions - especially among the youth - and the temptation to step over the line of what is considered legitimate electoral practice."
An ODM victory, whose policy implications remain unclear, would be a landmark for Africa as well as for Mr Odinga, a rabble-rousing former political prisoner and a clever tactician who helped Mr Kibaki win in 2002 but was then denied the senior post he was promised.
Kenya is east Africa's most important and sophisticated economy, a hub for multinational companies, and a key counter-terrorism ally of the US. It is also the region's most free and vibrant multi-party democracy. But whereas Mr Kibaki defeated a protégé of the reviled former president Daniel arap Moi, a victory for Mr Odinga would mark the first time an incumbent had lost at the polls. The two leading candidates - the third is Kalonzo Musyoka - hail from two large rival ethnic groups. The key to victory for both is to win over Kenya's equivalent of floating voters: those who do not have a runner from their own community in the race.
ODM owes its current ascendancy partly to the buzz generated by its campaign, which has taken Mr Odinga and others, decked out in bright orange shirts, to a series of energetic rallies around the country. True to his own languid style, Mr Kibaki had done little campaigning until the polls jolted his team into action.
More critically, analysts say, the president has failed to usher in the fairer, less corrupt and more inclusive form of government he promised. "If voters in Kenya seem inclined toward the opposition, you have to look for the explanation from the Kibaki side," says Ludeki Chweya, a political scientist at Nairobi University. "People are not saying so-and-so is good, they are saying so-and-so is bad."
The president has introduced greater political freedom and notched up two big achievements that are the centrepiece of his campaign: introducing free primary school education and presiding over economic growth that has risen steadily to hit 6.1 per cent last year. "There's been a little bit of economic recovery and social transformation," says Dr Chweya. "No one is disputing that. But is it enough to guarantee re-election? No."
One reason is that the growth - combined with continued high-level corruption - appears to have heightened rather than reduced inequality in a country where 46 per cent of its 36m people live on roughly $1.0 a day or less.
The trend has been given extra political bite by a perception Mr Kibaki has helped channel wealth and power primarily to members of his Kikuyu ethnic group, thereby shattering the pan-ethnic unity that thwarted Mr Moi at the last election.
"The Kikuyu have over-played themselves," says Ro-bert Shaw, a local businessman and commentator. "There's a strong anti-Kikuyu sentiment which goes in Raila's favour. Half the population are on the wrong side of the poverty line and he's using that."
Mr Odinga has a reputation as a firebrand that deters some voters - including business people - and in some parts of Kenya a prejudice against his Luo ethnic group remains.
But Kwamchetsi Makokha, a columnist for the Daily Nation, says his long political history is an asset: "The more Raila's been denied, the more people have sympathised with him. He's the one person who can say he's dedicated his life to fighting for reform."
FT Syndication Service
IT was only when arrows began to whizz past the head of William Ruto, a leading light in the Kenyan opposition, that it became clear just how close the race to be the country's next president would be.
The parliamentarian had arrived by helicopter at a government fundraiser to which he was not invited, antagonising supporters of the roads minister who was presiding over the event.
Young men with bows and arrows arrived to assert the minister's authority by shooting at Mr Ruto, who turned on his heels and fled. He was eventually saved by a minibus that dragged him to safety, leaving a pair of shredded trousers and a gashed knee as a souvenir.
Two months ago, when President Mwai Kibaki appeared to be coasting to victory, it would have been unthinkable for the disorganised opposition to be so bold, or for government loyalists to lash out at it so violently.
But with the election now set for December 27, the country has seen a remarkable turnaround, which is attributable to the opposition's canny exploitation of a crossover between ethnic sensibilities and the president's perceived failure to fulfil his promises.
If opinion polls are to be believed, Mr Kibaki, 75, is heading for defeat and the arrow attack spoke volumes about the alarm, if not panic, that has gripped the president's team. Back in July, a poll from the Steadman Group showed 45 per cent of people intending to vote for the president versus 25 per cent for Raila Odinga, 62, the presidential candidate of Mr Ruto's Orange Democratic Movement.
But in a poll published at the start of October, a few days after the arrow attack, Mr Odinga's ratings had soared to 47 per cent while the president slipped back to 38 per cent. Political sentiment is capricious, but several subsequent polls from different organisations suggest Mr Odinga has extended his lead. "It's a hell of a lot closer than people thought," says Tom Wolf, an analyst at Steadman. "The closer it looks the higher the risk of trouble, both in terms of tensions - especially among the youth - and the temptation to step over the line of what is considered legitimate electoral practice."
An ODM victory, whose policy implications remain unclear, would be a landmark for Africa as well as for Mr Odinga, a rabble-rousing former political prisoner and a clever tactician who helped Mr Kibaki win in 2002 but was then denied the senior post he was promised.
Kenya is east Africa's most important and sophisticated economy, a hub for multinational companies, and a key counter-terrorism ally of the US. It is also the region's most free and vibrant multi-party democracy. But whereas Mr Kibaki defeated a protégé of the reviled former president Daniel arap Moi, a victory for Mr Odinga would mark the first time an incumbent had lost at the polls. The two leading candidates - the third is Kalonzo Musyoka - hail from two large rival ethnic groups. The key to victory for both is to win over Kenya's equivalent of floating voters: those who do not have a runner from their own community in the race.
ODM owes its current ascendancy partly to the buzz generated by its campaign, which has taken Mr Odinga and others, decked out in bright orange shirts, to a series of energetic rallies around the country. True to his own languid style, Mr Kibaki had done little campaigning until the polls jolted his team into action.
More critically, analysts say, the president has failed to usher in the fairer, less corrupt and more inclusive form of government he promised. "If voters in Kenya seem inclined toward the opposition, you have to look for the explanation from the Kibaki side," says Ludeki Chweya, a political scientist at Nairobi University. "People are not saying so-and-so is good, they are saying so-and-so is bad."
The president has introduced greater political freedom and notched up two big achievements that are the centrepiece of his campaign: introducing free primary school education and presiding over economic growth that has risen steadily to hit 6.1 per cent last year. "There's been a little bit of economic recovery and social transformation," says Dr Chweya. "No one is disputing that. But is it enough to guarantee re-election? No."
One reason is that the growth - combined with continued high-level corruption - appears to have heightened rather than reduced inequality in a country where 46 per cent of its 36m people live on roughly $1.0 a day or less.
The trend has been given extra political bite by a perception Mr Kibaki has helped channel wealth and power primarily to members of his Kikuyu ethnic group, thereby shattering the pan-ethnic unity that thwarted Mr Moi at the last election.
"The Kikuyu have over-played themselves," says Ro-bert Shaw, a local businessman and commentator. "There's a strong anti-Kikuyu sentiment which goes in Raila's favour. Half the population are on the wrong side of the poverty line and he's using that."
Mr Odinga has a reputation as a firebrand that deters some voters - including business people - and in some parts of Kenya a prejudice against his Luo ethnic group remains.
But Kwamchetsi Makokha, a columnist for the Daily Nation, says his long political history is an asset: "The more Raila's been denied, the more people have sympathised with him. He's the one person who can say he's dedicated his life to fighting for reform."
FT Syndication Service