BB analysis says unemployment rate to drop to 3.76pc in FY09
Saturday, 11 October 2008
Shakhawat Hossain
The country's unemployment rate will drop to 3.76 per cent in the current fiscal year ending in June next year from 4.18 per cent in 2005-06 fiscal year, said a central bank analysis.
Experts, however, rejected the analysis saying the basis of such calculation is 'faulty' and its outcome gives 'wrong message'.
The policy analysis unit of the Bangladesh Bank (BB) prepared the analysis titled Recent Employment Situation and Labor Market Developments in Bangladesh and focused on various issues.
On the employment outlook for the current 2008-09 fiscal year, BB analysis said projected unemployment would fall down to 3.76 per cent as the number of employed people in the country will be 51 million against 1.9 million with no jobs.
The total number of jobholders was 47.4 million in 2005-06 and unemployed 2.07 million people, it said.
The central bank research unit said it made the projection using "sectoral employment co-efficients".
Leading economists slammed the data as faulty, saying the number of unemployed people is far higher in the country than the central bank projection.
"The Bangladesh Bank made the estimate based on wrong calculation method of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS)," said research director of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) Zayed Bakth.
BBS counts a person who works and get paid as employed in its annual survey introduced since 1995-96.
Previously the working hour for an employed was estimated at least 15 hours a week, he said.
"Such calculation method is faulty. So outcome of any analysis based on the calculation will give wrong message," he said.
BBS officials said they have another way to see the country's employment situation which is called underemployment survey and was updated last 2002-03.
The calculation method of the underemployed survey, which is different from the employment survey, showed that the country's unemployed population was around 37 per cent.
No underemployment survey was carried out in the last five years while the last employment survey was done in 2005-06, they said.
Commenting on the central bank analysis, another expert said almost all indicators related to employment including private and public investment have been discouraging during the last two years.
"Import of capital machinery is also negative through the last one year. Commodity price and inflation also marked a record rise in the local market," he said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"The BB analysis does not give the real picture of our economy, especially the deplorable scenario of the last two years" he added.
Experts urged the government to reintroduce the BBS' underemployment survey to access the country's latest employment situation.
The survey will be timely one following economic slowdown due to factors like anti-corruption drive and natural disasters, which have resulted in economic slowdown, they said.
The county recorded 6.2 per cent growth of GDP in FY 08 compared to 6.52 per cent growth in the previous fiscal.
The country's unemployment rate will drop to 3.76 per cent in the current fiscal year ending in June next year from 4.18 per cent in 2005-06 fiscal year, said a central bank analysis.
Experts, however, rejected the analysis saying the basis of such calculation is 'faulty' and its outcome gives 'wrong message'.
The policy analysis unit of the Bangladesh Bank (BB) prepared the analysis titled Recent Employment Situation and Labor Market Developments in Bangladesh and focused on various issues.
On the employment outlook for the current 2008-09 fiscal year, BB analysis said projected unemployment would fall down to 3.76 per cent as the number of employed people in the country will be 51 million against 1.9 million with no jobs.
The total number of jobholders was 47.4 million in 2005-06 and unemployed 2.07 million people, it said.
The central bank research unit said it made the projection using "sectoral employment co-efficients".
Leading economists slammed the data as faulty, saying the number of unemployed people is far higher in the country than the central bank projection.
"The Bangladesh Bank made the estimate based on wrong calculation method of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS)," said research director of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) Zayed Bakth.
BBS counts a person who works and get paid as employed in its annual survey introduced since 1995-96.
Previously the working hour for an employed was estimated at least 15 hours a week, he said.
"Such calculation method is faulty. So outcome of any analysis based on the calculation will give wrong message," he said.
BBS officials said they have another way to see the country's employment situation which is called underemployment survey and was updated last 2002-03.
The calculation method of the underemployed survey, which is different from the employment survey, showed that the country's unemployed population was around 37 per cent.
No underemployment survey was carried out in the last five years while the last employment survey was done in 2005-06, they said.
Commenting on the central bank analysis, another expert said almost all indicators related to employment including private and public investment have been discouraging during the last two years.
"Import of capital machinery is also negative through the last one year. Commodity price and inflation also marked a record rise in the local market," he said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"The BB analysis does not give the real picture of our economy, especially the deplorable scenario of the last two years" he added.
Experts urged the government to reintroduce the BBS' underemployment survey to access the country's latest employment situation.
The survey will be timely one following economic slowdown due to factors like anti-corruption drive and natural disasters, which have resulted in economic slowdown, they said.
The county recorded 6.2 per cent growth of GDP in FY 08 compared to 6.52 per cent growth in the previous fiscal.