logo

BB ups GDP growth projection by 0.01pc

Jasim Uddin Haroon | Wednesday, 19 March 2014



The central bank has upgraded its projection of the country's economic growth bringing its forecast closer to the finance minister's estimate.
Finance Minister AMA Muhith in February last told the media that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) was likely to grow at the rate of 6.3 per cent.
However, the finance minister in his March 12 speech in the Jatiya Sangsad (JS) said the growth target of 7.2 per cent might be achieved, if the output in the industrial sector and the harvest of main crops were satisfactory. He was placing the first quarterly report on the state of economy.
The Bangladesh Bank (BB) in its latest second quarterly report upgraded the forecast that the economic growth might be anywhere between 5.8 per cent and 6.1 per cent in the current fiscal year.
The central bank in its first quarterly (July-September) report said the economic growth might plunge to stand anywhere between 5.7 per cent and 6.0 per cent in the current fiscal year following the restive politics.
In view of the country's political environment, the BB has raised the growth projection for the fiscal by 0.01 percentage point.
But the figure is still lower than the government's target of 7.2 per cent.
The central bank follows an economic modelling for making forecast on the country's economy that it does in every quarter.
The BB is likely to formally announce its second quarterly report today (Wednesday).
On the other hand, the finance minister is likely to place the government's second quarterly economic update tomorrow (Thursday) in the parliament.
The finance minister while placing the first quarterly report hinted that the growth projection might be reviewed in the second quarterly report.
Leading economists are also apprehending a sharp fall in the GDP growth target as the economy bled significantly in the second half of the last calendar year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its report in December last had projected the growth rate at 5.5 per cent and the World Bank put it at 5.7 per cent this fiscal.
The ministry of finance (MoF) might revise downward the GDP growth outlook by around 1.0 percentage point, as it thinks the previous target of 7.2 per cent was 'ambitious' in the context of political volatility in the current fiscal.
The finance minister earlier told the media after a meeting with banking and financial sector regulators: "Our projection was too ambitious".
The finance minister said: "The growth rate would not be less than 6.3 per cent in the current fiscal year."
Finance ministry officials also said the growth rate would be 6.3 per cent.