BBS mends farm data forecasting methods

The national statistical organisation has made a major move to scrap its traditional forecasting methods applied in the case of agriculture sector.
The methods often do not depict the real picture of major crops and thus cause economic miscalculations, sources said.
In forecasting the major crops -- rice, potato and maize -- the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) now opts for applying new statistical methods, officials said.
The economy of Bangladesh is largely dependent on agriculture, as industrialisation is far from reaching optimal level while many industrial outputs are agro-based.
But it lacks accurate estimation of agricultural produce, and such lacking in information leads to fluctuations in prices of staples.
Besides, the government and the private sector many times take wrong decision about import of food products for lack of reliable and authentic data. The government agency also wants to find accurate picture of stocks of all major crops -- rice, wheat and maize -- with the new methodology, now being applied in almost all advanced nations.
Presently, only government stock on rice and wheat is available but the private-sector stock data remain unknown.
Officials of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics said implementation of the new methodology would help ease volatility on the food market. And it will also help the policymakers take the right decisions.
The BBS authorities Sunday organised an inception workshop on the methodological switchover at its headquarters in the city.
Bidan Baral, programme director of the project on strengthening agriculture market information system in Bangladesh, said the new mechanism will yield accurate picture of the major crops.
"The existing method of forecasting is not that scientific and it often fails to make correct projections," he told the meet about the merit of the change in agronomical statistics.
The new programmes will consider weather forecasts, trends in ten years and quality of seeds before forecasting.
Mr Baral further said under the existing practices, the field-level officers take samples and then make a forecast that often does not match with the ground realties.
The BBS project is being supported by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations.
Using the new method the BBS is likely to forecast its fist estimation from the next Boro season -- sometime next March. People directly involved with the project said the forecast would be made after cultivation of crops.
They said currently data of stock at the state level are available but not from the private sector, including households.
Under the new methodology the data for accurate stock or inventory in the private sector -- millers and households -- will also be available.
The BBS will disseminate the data through its web portal on a regular basis.
However, the project will end sometime in December 2016 and the outcome will be a regular activity of the statistical bureau.
The project is mostly funded by the FAO. The total funds required amount to Tk 70 million.
The inception workshop was moderated by Mohammed Abdul Wazed, the BBS director-general. Additional secretaries of the statistics and informatics division Shafiqul Islam and MA Mannan Howlader and FAO Bangladesh representative Mike Robson spoke at the workshop.
jasimharoon@yahoo.com