Benazir's bloody welcome home
Saturday, 20 October 2007
Syed Fattahul Alim
Benazir Bhutto has returned to Pakistan after eight years in self-exile amidst large crowds comprising mainly the supporters of Pakistan People's Party (PPP) greeting her home. Benazir's homecoming, however, is not purely an occasion of unmixed joy either for herself or her party aficionados. The jubilations on the streets of Karachi have been marred by two devastating suicide bomb blasts near the open-top truck carrying Ms Bhutto. The blasts, the deadliest of their kind in Pakistan's history, claimed about 125 lives, mainly Bhutto supporters.
Though no particular organisation has so far claimed responsibility for the suicide bomb explosions, it may be recalled here that a death threat from Al-Qaeda and pro-Taleban Islamist militants was already hanging over her head as the Emirate flight landed at the Karachi airport amid tight security mounted by the government security personnel as well as her party volunteers. Benazir Bhutto, however, has survived unscathed in the blast. Whoever might have been responsible for the ghastly attack on the rally organised to greet Benazir Bhutto home, the gory incident is sure to leave a lasting influence on the future course of the US-brokered alliance between President Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto. Once the uproar over the bloody welcome to the former prime minister and head of the Pakistan People's Party is over, old issues will again surface. So. it is not just the threat to her life, which is the only concern that would haunt her at her own home. She would also be facing a corruption charge brought against her by her arch rival Nawaz Sharif during his term as prime minister of Pakistan. The syndrome is not unknown to us in Bangladesh, especially when confrontational politics reigned supreme.
President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, however, had promulgated the National Reconciliation Ordinance, NRO, to show amnesty to Ms. Bhutto against the corruption charge. But to challenge the NRO, a petition has been filed in the supreme court of Pakistan. Similar petitions are also waiting for Supreme Court verdict to decide whether the October 6 presidential election in which Musharraf claimed easy victory was legal.
Thursday's deadly suicide bomb attack is going to influence whatever were on the agenda of President Musharraf, Benazir Bhutto and their international ally the USA, the other Pakistani leader Nawaz Sharif now in Saudi Arabia after his forced deportation by President Musharraf and the extremists. With fingers pointed at the pro-Taleban and al-Qaeda activists for the grisly bomb attacks in the Bhutto rally, there is the prospect that it may contribute towards strengthening the alliance between Benazir and Musharraf, thereby further alienating Benazir's arch rival Nawaz Sharif, who is leaning more and more towards the extreme rightist in his search for a political alliance.
Musharraf asked Bhutto to delay her return
Gen Musharraf had asked Ms Bhutto to delay her return until the Supreme Court decided whether he was eligible to serve as president for another term.
Gen Musharraf easily won a presidential vote on 6 October after opposition deputies in the national and provincial assemblies - which choose the president - either boycotted or abstained from the vote.
However, the Supreme Court said he could not be officially declared the winner until it had finished ruling on objections to his candidacy.
Ms Bhutto left the country soon after Gen Musharraf seized power in a coup.
Washington has backed a power-sharing deal with Gen Musharraf which would see Ms Bhutto becoming prime minister.
It has become increasingly concerned over the military's inability to defeat Islamist extremists and Gen Musharraf's rising unpopularity.
When Benazir Bhutto was was making her preparations to return home from Dubai, Declan Walsh wrote from Dubai in the Guardian on Thursday.
Despite death threats and deepening turmoil Benazir Bhutto is due to fly into Karachi today, ending eight years of self-imposed exile and launching one of Pakistan's most ambitious political resurrections.
The charismatic opposition leader, who fled in 1999 under a cloud of corruption charges, is returning in the hope of becoming prime minister for a third time in general elections due by mid-January. But she must first overcome deep scepticism about a controversial alliance with her old rival, President Pervez Musharraf.
In Dubai Ms Bhutto predicted her return would trigger a transition from military to civilian rule. "My return heralds for the people of Pakistan the turn of the wheel from dictatorship to democracy, from exploitation to empowerment, from violence to peace," she said, flanked by her husband and two daughters. She warned that any bomber who tried to kill her would "burn in hell" under Islamic laws. "I am very proud of what my mother is doing," said Bakhtawar, her eldest daughter.
The dramatic scenes are expected to re-inject colourful populism into Pakistan's sterile political scene. But the homecoming is also tainted by long-standing graft allegations and bitter family feuds.
Many supporters of Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) are deeply unhappy about talks with Gen Musharraf. In return for her support Gen Musharraf, whose popularity is diving, signed an amnesty against corruption charges that have dogged Ms Bhutto since she left power in 1996. The Oxford-educated politician also leaves behind allegations in Spain and Switzerland, where prosecutors are investigating allegations of kickbacks involving tens of millions of dollars. In 2003 a Swiss court convicted her of money-laundering and ordered her to pay $11m to the Pakistani government. The conviction was thrown out when she contested it, but the investigation continues. Ms Bhutto has always denied any wrongdoing.
Ms Bhutto's return is most bitterly opposed by some of her own relatives - the fallout from rivalries that have divided the Bhutto dynasty. "I'm scared for what this means for this country. It's so repulsive," said Fatima Bhutto, a 25-year-old niece. "But her return doesn't upset me."
Fatima, a newspaper columnist, blames Ms Bhutto for the death of her father, Murtaza, who was gunned down by police in murky circumstances in 1996. Benazir, his sister and political rival, was prime minister at the time. Impassioned and articulate, Fatima is considered a possible future rival for Ms Bhutto. But her party - a splinter of the PPP - has little support, and her Lebanese mother, Ghinwa, will contest the family seat at the next election.
Benazir Bhutto will hope to answer her critics today with a convincing display of public support. She made history in 1988, becoming the world's first Muslim female leader. Now, though, her political future has become intertwined with that of Gen Musharraf. Yesterday the supreme court started hearing a legal challenge to his October 6 re-election. Gen Musharraf's bitter rival Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, the chief justice he tried to fire last spring, has excused himself from the case.
Ms Bhutto also has pressing legal worries: in a few weeks the supreme court is due to start hearing a challenge to the new corruption amnesty. If the amnesty is overturned she could be faced with a fresh prosecution.
Speaking in Dubai, Ms Bhutto called for fair elections in which the people would resolve the country's differences.
I'm going home, says Benazir
Earlier on August 30 the Guardian predicted in a leader the prospect of Musharraf-Benazir pact in the context of the turbulent politics of Pakistan wich ran as follows.
Pakistan's fundamental problem is that it is dominated by a military establishment that combines unrealistic and expensive strategic ambitions in its region with a vice-like hold on the extensive privileges it has built up at home. The military has been scarcely less powerful during times of civilian rule than when a general has been in charge. It has switched from direct to indirect rule in response to periodic waves of popular discontent or when civilian politicians proved difficult to manipulate. Those politicians, drawn largely from the landlord class or from religious circles, have themselves often proved to be mediocre and corrupt both in office and in opposition.
This background makes it difficult to be overly optimistic about the negotiations now taking place between representatives of General Pervez Musharraf, president since a coup in 1999, and Benazir Bhutto. What is in prospect is a bargain under which Musharraf will shed his uniform and Benazir will return from exile, with legal changes enabling Musharraf to seek another term as president and Benazir another term as prime minister. Neither of these would be allowed under the constitution as it now stands. The US and other western governments, worried about Pakistan's role in the war on terror, are cheering all this on.
A return to civilian rule is in theory to be commended, but how much would then change in Pakistan? Musharraf would still be the military's point man in the political world and any attempt by Benazir to shrink the vast domain the military and security services control would meet with predictable resistance. A more coherent and formidable religious opposition could well emerge, perhaps allying itself with the party of Nawaz Sharif, Benazir's rival, soon expected in Pakistan after a supreme court decision that he no longer be excluded from the country.
If a deal is done between the Musharraf and Bhutto camps, it is by no means certain it will go through. Sharif is vociferously hostile, and could help turn Pakistani public opinion against it. Public opinion is a more weighty factor than it has been in the past. Musharraf's attempt six months ago to sack Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, the supreme court chief justice, focused in a remarkable way the anger and unease many Pakistanis feel about how their country has been run. Chaudhry's resistance in turn led and shaped public opinion. The constitutional changes Musharaff and Benazir require may well end up before a supreme court which is very responsive to popular feeling. In a mood of popular empowerment unusual in Pakistan, it is that feeling which could make or break the political plans of Benazir and Musharraf.
Benazir Bhutto has returned to Pakistan after eight years in self-exile amidst large crowds comprising mainly the supporters of Pakistan People's Party (PPP) greeting her home. Benazir's homecoming, however, is not purely an occasion of unmixed joy either for herself or her party aficionados. The jubilations on the streets of Karachi have been marred by two devastating suicide bomb blasts near the open-top truck carrying Ms Bhutto. The blasts, the deadliest of their kind in Pakistan's history, claimed about 125 lives, mainly Bhutto supporters.
Though no particular organisation has so far claimed responsibility for the suicide bomb explosions, it may be recalled here that a death threat from Al-Qaeda and pro-Taleban Islamist militants was already hanging over her head as the Emirate flight landed at the Karachi airport amid tight security mounted by the government security personnel as well as her party volunteers. Benazir Bhutto, however, has survived unscathed in the blast. Whoever might have been responsible for the ghastly attack on the rally organised to greet Benazir Bhutto home, the gory incident is sure to leave a lasting influence on the future course of the US-brokered alliance between President Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto. Once the uproar over the bloody welcome to the former prime minister and head of the Pakistan People's Party is over, old issues will again surface. So. it is not just the threat to her life, which is the only concern that would haunt her at her own home. She would also be facing a corruption charge brought against her by her arch rival Nawaz Sharif during his term as prime minister of Pakistan. The syndrome is not unknown to us in Bangladesh, especially when confrontational politics reigned supreme.
President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, however, had promulgated the National Reconciliation Ordinance, NRO, to show amnesty to Ms. Bhutto against the corruption charge. But to challenge the NRO, a petition has been filed in the supreme court of Pakistan. Similar petitions are also waiting for Supreme Court verdict to decide whether the October 6 presidential election in which Musharraf claimed easy victory was legal.
Thursday's deadly suicide bomb attack is going to influence whatever were on the agenda of President Musharraf, Benazir Bhutto and their international ally the USA, the other Pakistani leader Nawaz Sharif now in Saudi Arabia after his forced deportation by President Musharraf and the extremists. With fingers pointed at the pro-Taleban and al-Qaeda activists for the grisly bomb attacks in the Bhutto rally, there is the prospect that it may contribute towards strengthening the alliance between Benazir and Musharraf, thereby further alienating Benazir's arch rival Nawaz Sharif, who is leaning more and more towards the extreme rightist in his search for a political alliance.
Musharraf asked Bhutto to delay her return
Gen Musharraf had asked Ms Bhutto to delay her return until the Supreme Court decided whether he was eligible to serve as president for another term.
Gen Musharraf easily won a presidential vote on 6 October after opposition deputies in the national and provincial assemblies - which choose the president - either boycotted or abstained from the vote.
However, the Supreme Court said he could not be officially declared the winner until it had finished ruling on objections to his candidacy.
Ms Bhutto left the country soon after Gen Musharraf seized power in a coup.
Washington has backed a power-sharing deal with Gen Musharraf which would see Ms Bhutto becoming prime minister.
It has become increasingly concerned over the military's inability to defeat Islamist extremists and Gen Musharraf's rising unpopularity.
When Benazir Bhutto was was making her preparations to return home from Dubai, Declan Walsh wrote from Dubai in the Guardian on Thursday.
Despite death threats and deepening turmoil Benazir Bhutto is due to fly into Karachi today, ending eight years of self-imposed exile and launching one of Pakistan's most ambitious political resurrections.
The charismatic opposition leader, who fled in 1999 under a cloud of corruption charges, is returning in the hope of becoming prime minister for a third time in general elections due by mid-January. But she must first overcome deep scepticism about a controversial alliance with her old rival, President Pervez Musharraf.
In Dubai Ms Bhutto predicted her return would trigger a transition from military to civilian rule. "My return heralds for the people of Pakistan the turn of the wheel from dictatorship to democracy, from exploitation to empowerment, from violence to peace," she said, flanked by her husband and two daughters. She warned that any bomber who tried to kill her would "burn in hell" under Islamic laws. "I am very proud of what my mother is doing," said Bakhtawar, her eldest daughter.
The dramatic scenes are expected to re-inject colourful populism into Pakistan's sterile political scene. But the homecoming is also tainted by long-standing graft allegations and bitter family feuds.
Many supporters of Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) are deeply unhappy about talks with Gen Musharraf. In return for her support Gen Musharraf, whose popularity is diving, signed an amnesty against corruption charges that have dogged Ms Bhutto since she left power in 1996. The Oxford-educated politician also leaves behind allegations in Spain and Switzerland, where prosecutors are investigating allegations of kickbacks involving tens of millions of dollars. In 2003 a Swiss court convicted her of money-laundering and ordered her to pay $11m to the Pakistani government. The conviction was thrown out when she contested it, but the investigation continues. Ms Bhutto has always denied any wrongdoing.
Ms Bhutto's return is most bitterly opposed by some of her own relatives - the fallout from rivalries that have divided the Bhutto dynasty. "I'm scared for what this means for this country. It's so repulsive," said Fatima Bhutto, a 25-year-old niece. "But her return doesn't upset me."
Fatima, a newspaper columnist, blames Ms Bhutto for the death of her father, Murtaza, who was gunned down by police in murky circumstances in 1996. Benazir, his sister and political rival, was prime minister at the time. Impassioned and articulate, Fatima is considered a possible future rival for Ms Bhutto. But her party - a splinter of the PPP - has little support, and her Lebanese mother, Ghinwa, will contest the family seat at the next election.
Benazir Bhutto will hope to answer her critics today with a convincing display of public support. She made history in 1988, becoming the world's first Muslim female leader. Now, though, her political future has become intertwined with that of Gen Musharraf. Yesterday the supreme court started hearing a legal challenge to his October 6 re-election. Gen Musharraf's bitter rival Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, the chief justice he tried to fire last spring, has excused himself from the case.
Ms Bhutto also has pressing legal worries: in a few weeks the supreme court is due to start hearing a challenge to the new corruption amnesty. If the amnesty is overturned she could be faced with a fresh prosecution.
Speaking in Dubai, Ms Bhutto called for fair elections in which the people would resolve the country's differences.
I'm going home, says Benazir
Earlier on August 30 the Guardian predicted in a leader the prospect of Musharraf-Benazir pact in the context of the turbulent politics of Pakistan wich ran as follows.
Pakistan's fundamental problem is that it is dominated by a military establishment that combines unrealistic and expensive strategic ambitions in its region with a vice-like hold on the extensive privileges it has built up at home. The military has been scarcely less powerful during times of civilian rule than when a general has been in charge. It has switched from direct to indirect rule in response to periodic waves of popular discontent or when civilian politicians proved difficult to manipulate. Those politicians, drawn largely from the landlord class or from religious circles, have themselves often proved to be mediocre and corrupt both in office and in opposition.
This background makes it difficult to be overly optimistic about the negotiations now taking place between representatives of General Pervez Musharraf, president since a coup in 1999, and Benazir Bhutto. What is in prospect is a bargain under which Musharraf will shed his uniform and Benazir will return from exile, with legal changes enabling Musharraf to seek another term as president and Benazir another term as prime minister. Neither of these would be allowed under the constitution as it now stands. The US and other western governments, worried about Pakistan's role in the war on terror, are cheering all this on.
A return to civilian rule is in theory to be commended, but how much would then change in Pakistan? Musharraf would still be the military's point man in the political world and any attempt by Benazir to shrink the vast domain the military and security services control would meet with predictable resistance. A more coherent and formidable religious opposition could well emerge, perhaps allying itself with the party of Nawaz Sharif, Benazir's rival, soon expected in Pakistan after a supreme court decision that he no longer be excluded from the country.
If a deal is done between the Musharraf and Bhutto camps, it is by no means certain it will go through. Sharif is vociferously hostile, and could help turn Pakistani public opinion against it. Public opinion is a more weighty factor than it has been in the past. Musharraf's attempt six months ago to sack Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, the supreme court chief justice, focused in a remarkable way the anger and unease many Pakistanis feel about how their country has been run. Chaudhry's resistance in turn led and shaped public opinion. The constitutional changes Musharaff and Benazir require may well end up before a supreme court which is very responsive to popular feeling. In a mood of popular empowerment unusual in Pakistan, it is that feeling which could make or break the political plans of Benazir and Musharraf.