Beyond Musharraf's uniform
Friday, 7 December 2007
Jehangir Khattak
IN his latest book Beyond The White House, former US President Jimmy Carter says, "Peace is more than just the absence of war. People everywhere seek an inner peace that comes from the right to voice their views, choose their leaders, feed their families, and raise healthy children."
Carter's analogy aptly fits today's Pakistan where the country finally is headed to a transformed military president in civvies. General Pervez Musharraf has doffed his uniform and seems ready for his role as a civilian president.
He has added a new player to the nuclear armed nation's power politics in the person of General Ashfaq Kayani, the new army chief. Musharraf is following a roadmap that he himself has charted for the restoration of what he calls 'true' democracy in Pakistan.
With the country's legitimate Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry and his brother judges still in illegal detention, the country's popular television channels still off the air, and with a largely divided opposition, after having joined the snap polls bandwagon, still thinking of a boycott, Pakistan is hardly at peace. But the country is not at war either. It's in the middle of a political and military chaos in cities and mountains in the north.
The latest developments might look favourable to Musharraf, but, in reality, these have brought more weakness than strength to his position.
This is evident from the triumphant return of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif from Saudi Arabia. Musharraf visited the Saudi King Abdullah as a last ditch effort to convince him to keep Sharif out of Pakistan at least till the Jan 8 elections, but his effort was to no avail.
The Saudi King, instead of obliging the Pakistani general, rewarded his arch rival Sharif by sending him back to Pakistan in style - gifting him a bullet-proof Mercedes and lending him and his family the royal Boeing 777 for his home-bound journey.
Is this an indication of Musharraf's dwindling fortunes along with a polite snub from a foreign leader, whom Musharraf proudly calls his 'elder brother'? Though an answer to this question cannot be a certain 'no', it can't be a certain 'yes' either.
What looks certain now, however, is that, besides the 'US factor' in Pakistani politics, the proverbial 'Saudi factor' seems to be effectively in place too.
Like the Americans, the Saudis have patiently watched the Pakistani politics for the past few weeks. They saw the discredited Benazir Bhutto rise in popularity following reports of US pressure on Musharraf to share power with her. Washington believed that the power share would enlarge the anti-fanatics coalition of secular forces in the country and have direct implications on the war on terror.
The talk of a 'deal' benefited Musharraf and Benazir almost alike. It earned Musharraf presidential elections that had a semblance of legitimacy, thanks to Bhutto.
It gave an opportunity to the corruption-tainted Bhutto to stage a homecoming laced with massive street power.
However, politically, the politics of 'deal' damaged Bhutto more than Musharraf.
Once both the leaders achieved their immediate objectives, they started reclining to their traditional rivalry. Now the gulf between the two has reached a stage where any power-sharing deal would be no less than a miracle, for now at least.
The sole benefactor of the Benazir-Musharraf deal drama was Nawaz Sharif, sitting in the safe havens of Saudi palaces in the desert kingdom.
The Saudi rulers, who oppose a woman's rule in a Muslim country, saw an opportunity for Nawaz Sharif in the emerging political chemistry.
Although a Saudi-brokered Musharraf-Nawaz reconciliation, with Washington's blessings, seems improbable, this possibility cannot be discounted in Pakistani politics where there are no permanent foes.
Nawaz Sharif's almost abrupt return may carry a price tag, but there is no denying the fact that he has added new weight to the emerging anti-Musharraf coalition.
If this coalition announces election boycott and takes to the streets, it will deprive the election of its only credentials - its legitimacy. Whether opposition parties boycott elections or stage a 'parliamentary coup' by decisively winning the elections, probably Musharraf's days are numbered.
It does not matter much, whether Benazir Bhutto comes in power or Nawaz Sharif makes it to Pakistan's highest office, Musharraf will see his political power weakening as either of the two leaders will bring along massive power of their large constituencies which could reduce Musharraf to a lame duck president keeping in view the fact that he lost his strongest constituency in the military after doffing his uniform.
He has already lost much of respect amongst his admirers in Pakistan's civil society following his infamous crackdown on his natural allies under the umbrella of emergency.
Washington had better start betting on Pakistan's popular democratic leadership, an independent judiciary, and free media, which hold a definite future in a country that America cannot afford to ignore.
Musharraf's exit from Pakistan's most powerful office has also left the military at a crossroads.
The new military chief has the option of following in his predecessor's missteps and press ahead with meddling in politics - a practice that has already severely dented the army's image.
The second sane option demands of the military to adopt its pure constitutional role of a professional fighting force that is geared to safeguard the country's frontiers against terrorists and troublemakers, rather than a force out to conquer its own people.
The Dawn
IN his latest book Beyond The White House, former US President Jimmy Carter says, "Peace is more than just the absence of war. People everywhere seek an inner peace that comes from the right to voice their views, choose their leaders, feed their families, and raise healthy children."
Carter's analogy aptly fits today's Pakistan where the country finally is headed to a transformed military president in civvies. General Pervez Musharraf has doffed his uniform and seems ready for his role as a civilian president.
He has added a new player to the nuclear armed nation's power politics in the person of General Ashfaq Kayani, the new army chief. Musharraf is following a roadmap that he himself has charted for the restoration of what he calls 'true' democracy in Pakistan.
With the country's legitimate Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry and his brother judges still in illegal detention, the country's popular television channels still off the air, and with a largely divided opposition, after having joined the snap polls bandwagon, still thinking of a boycott, Pakistan is hardly at peace. But the country is not at war either. It's in the middle of a political and military chaos in cities and mountains in the north.
The latest developments might look favourable to Musharraf, but, in reality, these have brought more weakness than strength to his position.
This is evident from the triumphant return of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif from Saudi Arabia. Musharraf visited the Saudi King Abdullah as a last ditch effort to convince him to keep Sharif out of Pakistan at least till the Jan 8 elections, but his effort was to no avail.
The Saudi King, instead of obliging the Pakistani general, rewarded his arch rival Sharif by sending him back to Pakistan in style - gifting him a bullet-proof Mercedes and lending him and his family the royal Boeing 777 for his home-bound journey.
Is this an indication of Musharraf's dwindling fortunes along with a polite snub from a foreign leader, whom Musharraf proudly calls his 'elder brother'? Though an answer to this question cannot be a certain 'no', it can't be a certain 'yes' either.
What looks certain now, however, is that, besides the 'US factor' in Pakistani politics, the proverbial 'Saudi factor' seems to be effectively in place too.
Like the Americans, the Saudis have patiently watched the Pakistani politics for the past few weeks. They saw the discredited Benazir Bhutto rise in popularity following reports of US pressure on Musharraf to share power with her. Washington believed that the power share would enlarge the anti-fanatics coalition of secular forces in the country and have direct implications on the war on terror.
The talk of a 'deal' benefited Musharraf and Benazir almost alike. It earned Musharraf presidential elections that had a semblance of legitimacy, thanks to Bhutto.
It gave an opportunity to the corruption-tainted Bhutto to stage a homecoming laced with massive street power.
However, politically, the politics of 'deal' damaged Bhutto more than Musharraf.
Once both the leaders achieved their immediate objectives, they started reclining to their traditional rivalry. Now the gulf between the two has reached a stage where any power-sharing deal would be no less than a miracle, for now at least.
The sole benefactor of the Benazir-Musharraf deal drama was Nawaz Sharif, sitting in the safe havens of Saudi palaces in the desert kingdom.
The Saudi rulers, who oppose a woman's rule in a Muslim country, saw an opportunity for Nawaz Sharif in the emerging political chemistry.
Although a Saudi-brokered Musharraf-Nawaz reconciliation, with Washington's blessings, seems improbable, this possibility cannot be discounted in Pakistani politics where there are no permanent foes.
Nawaz Sharif's almost abrupt return may carry a price tag, but there is no denying the fact that he has added new weight to the emerging anti-Musharraf coalition.
If this coalition announces election boycott and takes to the streets, it will deprive the election of its only credentials - its legitimacy. Whether opposition parties boycott elections or stage a 'parliamentary coup' by decisively winning the elections, probably Musharraf's days are numbered.
It does not matter much, whether Benazir Bhutto comes in power or Nawaz Sharif makes it to Pakistan's highest office, Musharraf will see his political power weakening as either of the two leaders will bring along massive power of their large constituencies which could reduce Musharraf to a lame duck president keeping in view the fact that he lost his strongest constituency in the military after doffing his uniform.
He has already lost much of respect amongst his admirers in Pakistan's civil society following his infamous crackdown on his natural allies under the umbrella of emergency.
Washington had better start betting on Pakistan's popular democratic leadership, an independent judiciary, and free media, which hold a definite future in a country that America cannot afford to ignore.
Musharraf's exit from Pakistan's most powerful office has also left the military at a crossroads.
The new military chief has the option of following in his predecessor's missteps and press ahead with meddling in politics - a practice that has already severely dented the army's image.
The second sane option demands of the military to adopt its pure constitutional role of a professional fighting force that is geared to safeguard the country's frontiers against terrorists and troublemakers, rather than a force out to conquer its own people.
The Dawn