Bracing for the impact of El Niño

Let me start with a classic example of Venezuela - the country officially called the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. This is a tropical country on the northern coast of South America. Like Bangladesh, Venezuela has for some time been in the midst of an agonising power and water crisis. There may not be a clear-cut answer to the question, "What causes Venezuela's water and energy crisis?" Different people come up with different explanations. At one stage, pointing finger at climate changes, the Late President Hugo Chávez said, "It's El Niño," (a periodic phenomenon in which warming in the Pacific gives rise to unusual weather patterns) which is partly to be blamed for the water and power crunch. The El Niño is said to have resulted in a lack of rainfall and the cause of water shortages. These shortages, in turn, have starved Venezuela's hydroelectric dams which provide approximately three quarters of the nation's electricity.
Chávez's leadership was threatened by the devastating El Niño-linked drought when the government had been forced to undertake conservation measures for water and electricity. The President finally urged the citizens to shorten their bathing time as the country's electric and water supply problems mounted. He passionately encouraged Venezuelans to cut down on personal consumption by taking shorter showers, saying that wasting electricity or water "is a crime."
I have cited the Venezuelan experience because Bangladesh may face similar problems this year. Along with the El Niño dry spell, there will be a shortage of water needed for keeping the designated capacity of the power plants normal. Against this backdrop, the dry spells may affect seriously both the water and power sectors.
Everybody is aware of the importance of electricity and water in a civilised society. In fact, one of the parameters to measure whether the economy of a particular country is moving forward is the amount of electricity that it consumes. The importance of water does not stem from the reason of its human consumption only, but also from the volume of its industrial use.
Right now, it appears that an El Niño is brewing up with more than 50 per cent probability. Some scientists even argue that there is a 70-80 per cent chance of the formation of an El Niño by July/August/September of 2014. While a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño is still a matter of concern, a strong El Niño is worrying. It can leave behind a devastating global impact, with Bangladesh possibly facing severe shortage of water (e.g., reduced rainfall, thinner river flow).
Unfortunately, the probability of a strong El Niño is gradually increasing and a drought similar to that of 1982-83 and 1997-98 is most likely to occur in Bangladesh. However, there is still some uncertainty over it, but the current trends are a cause of concern for all of us. According to some recent news reports, it seems that the country is drying up and there has already been a serious impact on the traditional water sources and the energy sector.
Power problem in Bangladesh is nothing new and, even without the onslaught of an El Niño, Bangladesh has suffered the severe effects of power shortages. However, the country has made significant progress over the last couple of years in the energy sector. Despite this progress, the demand for power (especially for increased use of air conditioners, fans and refrigerators) in the scorching hot days of 2014 may exceed the normal limit. Similarly, the demand for water will also increase in this summer (although the season is monsoon according to calendar) and may also exceed the supply limit.
The much-apprehended El Niño of 2014 may aggravate the problem of water and power crises in Bangladesh. The agencies concerned in the country should put in their best efforts to work out a sustainable solution to the looming calamity.
Dr. Md. Rashed Chowdhury is Principal Research Scientist, Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Centre (PEAC),                  Joint Institute for Marine                 and Atmospheric Research (JIMAR), University of Hawaii            at Manoa (UHM). rashed@hawaii.edu