Brexit—will UK leave the EU?

To begin with, the United Kingdom (UK) was reluctant to join the European Union (EU), known as European Economic Co-operation (EEC) in its earlier incarnation. The original nomenclature was of course, the European Coal and Steel Union, the brainchild of Monet, the French statesman who dreamt of a united Europe. U.K.'s lack of enthusiasm to join the EEC was due to the apprehension of losing leadership in Europe within a bigger entity. It, therefore, went ahead with the parallel project of European Free Trade agreement with the European non-members of EEC, particularly the Nordic countries. When EEC became a more viable and successful association the U.K. changed its tack and began negotiation for membership starting in 1957. It took long 16 years before the negotiations came to fruition. Apart from the complexities of the process involved the almost pathological distrust of the French President Charles de Gaulle about the U.K. was the main reason for this long-drawn-out preparatory talks.
From the very beginning the U.K. was critical of some of the policies of EEC and made no bones about it. It resented having to fund for the implementation of the Common Agriculture Policy which benefited the continental farmers more than the British. The social and labour policies of EEC were also not to the liking of the U.K. which wanted to stick to its own. As EEC expanded its membership (at present 28) and the scope of its activities ballooned, politicians in the U.K. grumbled about loss of sovereignty and supremacy. The U.K. stayed away from the rest of the members when the decision was taken to issue Schengen Visa allowing entry to foreign visitors to all EU member countries. It did not join the common currency regime when Euro was introduced.
With European Union the question was always whether this extraordinary project of supra-national union will hold together. It remained a recurrent worry in the context of U.K's misgivings and reservations. That concern has risen with the real possibility that the U.K. will hold a referendum on leaving the bloc during the next general election. More and more people in the U.K., including politicians, now believe that the EU does not serve their interests. The idea of living outside the Union like Norway and Switzerland has grown stronger.
The anti-EU Independence Party in the U.K. won its first two seats in parliament in 2014. Since then it is using its mandate to set much of the political agenda on the basis of anti-EU stand. After two decades of unsuccessful campaign against EU the Independence Party has found an issue that resonates with general public. The continuous flow of immigrants from the EU, particularly the East Europe, has sent alarm bell ringing among the people about the threat of being swamped with influx of job seekers. Many now believe that leaving the bloc is the only way to stem the flow of immigration.
In an effort to stop voters from leaving the EU the Conservative Party prime minister David Cameroon has promised a referendum on the subject by the end of 2017 if he wins the general election in May this year. At the same time he has declared that renegotiation will be made in terms of U.K. membership. His strategy includes new power to withhold welfare payments from migrants.
The U.K. joined the European Economic Commission 16 years after it was formed in 1957. Arguments to leave the association began soon after among British politicians. In a U.K. referendum on the question in 1975 most of politicians and media argued that staying in the EEC was in the best interest for the U.K. economy. The EEC offered a bigger market for British product along with the benefits of a customs union. The referendum was won by a margin of 2 to 1. But prime minister John Major's government almost collapsed in 1993 when some of his party law makers voted against him over the signing of the Maastricht Treaty by which expanded cooperation was introduced creating the European Union. Scepticism over the EU membership led to the exclusion of U.K. from the single currency when Euro was launched in 1999. The critics felt gleefully vindicated when the Eurozone was plunged in debt crisis beginning from 2008.
European Union allowed membership to eight eastern European countries in 2004. It triggered an influx of immigrants that strained public services, particularly welfare benefits. It also soured relations with natives as low-wage jobs went to migrants. According to an estimate, the share of foreign-born residents in the U.K. rose to 13.4 per cent of the population of U.K. by 2011. This was double the level in 1991. The new immigrants have been attracted by the healthy growth of the U.K. economy which is growing at twice the pace of the core zone in the Union. The U.K. is the third biggest country in terms of geography and population, next to Germany and France. For east European it is easier to get jobs in the U.K. than in France and Germany because of the present state of labour market.
The prospect of Brexit - Britain's possibility of exit from the Union - has led to fresh debate between rival groups in the U.K. The euro-sceptics say the EU wants to grow into a super state with a huge bureaucracy that would impinge more on national sovereignty. They point out that the U.K. is a global power in its own right, having a seat in the UN Security Council. It would negotiate better trade treaties without being compromised by the protectionist policy of the EU. Advocates of membership point out that the EU is the country's largest export market. Global companies have established their offices in the U.K. because they have tariff-free access to EU market. It is also pointed out that the country has benefited from free movement of labour that provides a pool of cheap and skilled labour.
The threat of a British exit (Brexit) has found EU countries engaged in a debate about what can be done to stop the move. Germany in particular wants to keep the U.K. as a free-market counterbalance to France. The interest of France in the matter is lukewarm; it was never very enthusiastic about British membership.
As Scottish vote on independence recently showed the voters of U.K. will ultimately opt for a bigger organisation even if that means conceding some part of sovereignty. Once the influx of immigrants is stabilised the resentment of people against the Union will become muted. The U.K. will not wish to be left isolated as an island country. The feeling of bigness that comes with EU membership will be prized. But it may extract a few concessions in its favour as the price for remaining a member.
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