Budget pressure unlikely to deflect Iran from nuclear goals
Tuesday, 23 December 2014
DUBAI, Dec 22 (Reuters): A big oil price slide will hurt Iran's attempts to rescue battered living standards, but economic pain is unlikely to soften its stance in nuclear talks or end aid to allies such as Syria, matters seen by its ruling clerics as strategic priorities.
Economic misery due to sanctions and mismanagement has been a reality for years, and while social strains in the 76 million population are deep, the clerics will seek to contain them, say experts examining Iran's budget plans for 2015.
The largest drop in oil prices since the 2008 financial crisis means more budget pressure for the OPEC member, already bereft of tens of billions of dollars in oil revenue due to Western sanctions and years of economic mismanagement.
And tougher economic times may spur Tehran's determination to end a nuclear dispute and lift sanctions that isolate it from the global banking system and deter most foreign investors.
But significant changes in Iran's regional strategy including its approach to any nuclear deal are unlikely.
That is partly because funds for security affairs come from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, not the government. He also decides nuclear policy.
"Our support to our brother Assad will never change," said a senior Iranian official, referring to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. "Because of (declining) oil prices we face economic hardship ... but we will mange to continue our support to Syria, militarily and financially."