Calm state of politics gives respite to trade, economy

The ongoing calm political situation has given the country's trade and economy a respite, which businesses and economists termed as a breakthrough after long stalemate.
They also called upon the political parties to make the best use of the situation and reach a permanent settlement regarding overall improvement of the democratic process for the sake of the country's inclusive economic growth.
The whole country went through political turmoil since January 05 when BNP chairperson and chief of 20-party Alliance Khaleda Zia called non-stop blockade across the country. She called the programme, as the alliance was denied of holding rally in the capital to protest the 10th parliamentary election, held on January 05, 2014.
Since then, the country witnessed various types of violent activities, like - arson attack, vandalism, bomb hurling, extra-judicial killing etc, which killed more than 100 people in an increasingly restive political situation that lasted for more than three months.     
To resolve the political turmoil, business leaders were also seen coming out onto the streets with white flags, a sign of peace, and called upon the political parties to resolve the crisis through holding dialogue.
However, all people, including businesses, politicians and professionals etc, breathed sighs of relief on April 05 when Khaleda Zia returned to her residence on a bail after staying more than three months in Gulshan party office.
At the same time, the government allowed the BNP men to enter their party headquarters at Naya Paltan, which law-enforcers had locked on January 03.
The developments are seen as breakthrough in the prevailing political stalemate by the businesses and analysts.
President of Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) Syed Nasim Manzur said the political leaders should now act to bring back confidence of the business community, who became shaky due to non-stop hartal-blockade.
He said businesses postponed their long-term and mid-term investment plans here in absence of rule of law and peace, which is a precondition for investment anywhere across the world.
President of the country's oldest chamber body said political engagement is also important to this effect, as parties should take the opportunity and come up with a permanent solution through fruitful and effective discussions.
"Only political leaders can resolve the crisis permanently," he added.       
President of American Chamber of Commerce in Bangladesh (AmCham) Aftab Ul Islam said it will take time for the country's economy to bounce back after months of uncertainty over last parliamentary polls.
"Uncertainty can come in a day, but it takes many days to overcome the consequences," he said.   
The AmCham president said the foreign investors are frequently conveying them their worries and want to know the latest development in the country's political climate since January, and at the same time local investors held back their investment plans.
"So, the first step we should immediately take is to bring back trust of local investors as foreign investors always follow local investors."
The biggest hindrance the private sector is now facing is not power, gas and labour unrest. It is the fear, mistrust and uncertainty that shattered the confidence of business community, he added.
President of Chittagong Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCCI) Mahbubul Alam said the economic activities throughout the country have been suffering acutely because of recent political unrest and anarchic situation.
He also said the production plants are suffering for want of raw materials, exporters fail to meet shipment deadline and lose work orders, transportation of essential goods has been collapsed, some factories are closing down, and unemployment rate is going high.
But the recent political events that the whole nation observed for the last several days have brought rays of hope to general people, businesses in particular.
"We're hopeful and optimistic of overcoming the situation. We, the businessmen, want nothing from the political parties but political stability, as the country's economic growth largely depends on it."
The parties should create a friendly atmosphere for doing business to take the overpopulated nation into the next stage of development, for which the politicians work for, he added.
CPD Additional Research Director Dr. Khondaker Golam Moazzem said the upcoming city corporation elections give the economy some sorts of respite and create a space for coming out of negative consequences caused by the political turmoil.
"But tension is still here, as final settlement is yet to come, which is not a good sign for the economy at all. The settlement must come in a broader framework for overall improvement of democratic process, like - election procedure, equal space and rights for opposition parties etc," he said.
Because of the tension in business environment for not having any final settlement will further accelerate operational costs, which will emerge as another challenge for the businesses here.
"Inclusive economic growth cannot be achieved in absence of inclusive democratic process," he added.
According to a recent study of Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), waves of political violence ate up some 0.5 per cent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) or an estimated amount of Tk 49 billion from January to mid-March of the current fiscal year.
Professor Abdul Bayes of Department of Economics at Jahangirnagar University said BNP-led 20-party's participation in the city corporation polls created a small window of negotiation.
"It's still a short-lasting development and may not be a long-lasting one, as uncertainty is still looming large over the horizon."
He said the country will not achieve 7.0 or 8.0 per cent growth without permanent solution to the political instability.
"In fact, I did not see any election-centric consensus over the last 40 years in the country, and I still have no idea in which process the upcoming general election will be held," he said.  Giving full credits to IMF and World Bank-imposed reform programmes and infrastructural developments behind the country's steady growth, he said the government should now go for new generation of reforms or deepening reforms to achieve 7.0 or 8.0 per cent growth.
Under the new generation of reforms, restructure of BoI (Board of Investment), independence of ACC (Anti-Corruption Commission) and judiciary, dismantling of the existing bureaucratic structure and strengthening of NBR (National Board of Revenue) need to be ensured, he opined.
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