Challenges of Post-2015 Development Agenda

It is to be noted that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was present in the UN Millennium Summit held in September 2000 as Head of the Government and was one of the signatories of the Millennium Declaration, based on which were evolved the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The political commitment shown from the highest level of the Government of Bangladesh paved the way for integration of the goals and targets of MDGs in the national development plans, be it Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers or the ongoing 6th Five Year Plan. The priority in allocating resources is revealed by the fact that around 50 per cent of the Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) was purposely diverted to the MDG sectors in general or social sector in particular. With a view to implementing all the MDGs, US$ 3.0 billion were required each year, out of which the country received only US$ 1.68 billion from 1991 to 2013, on average. On the other hand, Bangladesh was eagerly craving for increasing domestic resources and was successful in achieving around 20 per cent annual average growth for the last five years.   
The ardent political commitment, channelising of resources to desired sectors, supportive policy interventions, inclusive and pro-poor macroeconomic measures, sustained GDP (gross domestic product) growth, gradual structural change of the economy from agrarian to more productive manufacturing sector, reduction of dependency ratio because of changing population structure, increased life expectancy with decreased mortality rate, reduction of population growth leveraging to reduce household size, increased enrolment of girl students leading to enhanced female labour force participation, robust growth of exports with comparative advantage of low cost of labour, surge in remittance from the diasporas and migrant workers, emphatic government-NGO collaboration and multidimensional use of Information & Communication Technology-all of these mutually reinforcing factors have spearheaded the process of achieving a number of MDGs in Bangladesh. This success stories made the country champion among the LDCs (least developed countries) and was acclaimed globally for its outstanding performance and was awarded with some prestigious awards and honoured with special recognition in successive years from different UN bodies.
Notwithstanding the successes, Bangladesh as a densely inhabited country among the LDCs faces some challenges while implementing a few targets of MDGs. Recognising the physical and human capital constraints, ensuring food security for 152 million people with maintaining the GDP growth rate in the face of the global financial crisis has been a Herculean task. Hence, it can rightly be said that the achievements of MDGs in our country's perspective are not unmixed as some targets are already met, some are on-track to be achieved by the stipulated time and some targets need additional time, resources and technological know-how to be attained.
BANGLADESH PROPOSAL CONVERGES WITH HLP AND OWG:    It is believed that the experience of implementation of MDGs in Bangladesh and the lessons learnt will be helpful in the implementation of new goals and targets to be set for the post-2015 development trajectory. In this backdrop Bangladesh was requested to submit proposals to the UN on the Post-2015 Development Perspective. Through inclusive and participatory consultative process Bangladesh came up with its proposals prepared by the General Economics Division, Bangladesh Planning Commission. The national priorities have been taken as guide for identifying goals and targets and then aligned with the global aspirations and priorities particularly of LDCs, LLDCs (Landlocked Least Developed States) and SIDS (Small Island Developing States). The goals have been kept limited in number; the unfinished agenda of MDGs has been incorporated along with the potential Sustainable Development Goals; the principles of inclusiveness, sustainability, equity, rule of law, human rights, governance, justice, opportunity and participation of all have been considered; new challenges which may define the world during the next 15 years have also been taken care of in the Bangladesh Proposal.
The national proposal of Bangladesh for Post-2015 Development Agenda contains 11 goals, 58 targets and 241 measurable indicators. The UN Secretary-General appointed a High-level Panel of Eminent Persons on the Post-2015 Development Agenda (HLP) and the panel came up with 12 goals with six cross-cutting issues. On the other hand, the Open Working Group (OWG) established by the UNGA comprising of 30 UN Member States, have suggested 17 goals with 169 targets. It is comforting to mention that out of the 11 goals proposed by Bangladesh, nine are common with the proposals of HLP and OWG. The issues of the common goals are: Poverty, Gender equality, Food security & nutrition, Healthy lives, Quality education, Productive employment, Good governance, Environmental sustainability and Global partnership. Bangladesh's another proposal - sustainable production and consumption - converge with the proposal of OWG. Two goals common to HLP and OWG related to 'water & sanitation' and 'sustainable energy' are, however, included as targets in Bangladesh's proposal. The goals proposed by OWG related to 'inequality', 'climate change', 'resilient infrastructure', 'conservation of natural resources' are also proposed as targets in Bangladesh's proposal. This development issues covered by Bangladesh converge well with the HLP and OWG proposals.  
The nine goals that are common in Bangladesh, HLP and OWG proposals, may be accepted during international negotiation. Apart from the nine common goals, Bangladesh may also suggest to incorporate the issues of 'disaster management', 'governance', 'people with special needs', 'reproductive health', 'equitable growth', 'safe food', 'research & innovation', 'sustainable urbanisation' etc. in the targets of related goals of Post-2015 Development Agenda.
It is likely that some of the goals of the MDGs will remain unfulfilled by 2015 even if we put all our efforts by the time left (about 500 days only). Therefore, the world community must continue its efforts to re-craft the unfinished agenda of MDGs in the Post-2015 Development Agenda targeting sustainable development.
IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES OF POST 2015 DEVELOPMENT AGENDA: It is well-known that resource constraint is one of the major impediments to achieving the MDGs in many developing countries like Bangladesh. The challenges ahead of Bangladesh for the Post-2015 Development Agenda also call for mobilising required resources and targeted interventions in the areas lagging behind. It is generally criticised that MDG 8 was the least defined goal. The links between MDG 8 and MDGs 1-7 are not very explicit. The targets of MDG 8 do not capture all of the actions that countries need to undertake within a cooperative framework to deliver a 'global partnership'. So, new forms of global partnership for development would be required in the new development paradigm after 2015, leveraging resources by diverse funding mechanisms.
The interdependent mix of financial resources, development of technology and transfer, capacity-building, equitable globalisation and trade, regional integration, and the creation of a national enabling environment would be required to implement the new sustainable development agenda, particularly in developing countries like Bangladesh.
The implementation of the Post-2015 Development Agenda will require States and other relevant actors to adopt policies and mobilise resources to advance equitable, human rights-based, sustainable development. In this context, a renewed and strengthened global partnership for expediting the means of implementation to address the social, economic and environmental issues in an integrated manner will be needed. In this regard, capacity building for people and institutions will be crucial requirement.
Increasing population impacts directly on the prospects for development. It can affect economies positively or negatively depending on the population structure and resource availability. It can also pose additional challenges for service provision, sustainable use of resources, waste management, and the orderly management of migration. All of these issues require appropriate policy responses from national government, but may also require cooperation across borders, with implications for global partnerships.
Increasing migration comes with opportunities and challenges. Managed properly, migration can contribute significantly to wealth, trade, job creation, and social empowerment. But migration can also create dislocation in families where migration is restricted to individuals, and can also contribute to skills shortages in sending countries. Moreover, in the absence of adequate legal channels for immigration can seriously erode the protection of rights. Hence, lawful, protected, realistic and needs-based human mobility will be required.
 Climate change will potentially exacerbate some negative impacts of migration, requiring greater efforts towards disaster risk reduction. The 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) has predicted that sea-level rise threatens coastal and deltaic rice production areas in Asia, such as those in Bangladesh and the Mekong River Delta. Coastal freshwater wetlands may be vulnerable to saltwater intrusion with rising sea levels. By 2050 Bangladesh will face incremental cost to flood protection of US$ 2.6 billion initial costs and US$ 54 million annual recurring costs. This will mean strengthening resilience of cities to absorb rural-urban migrants, and protecting and supporting populations in vulnerable coastal areas or suffering soil degradation.
As a source of development finance, FDI (foreign direct investment) and other private fund flows are much greater than official aid. FDI represented approximately 4.0 per cent of financial inflows to developing countries in 2009, compared to private remittance flows (2.0 per cent) and ODA (0.5 per cent). Hence, augmented institutional mechanism, reducing cost of doing business, upgrading standard accounting and financial reporting will be required, where, no doubt, development of Human Resources will also be needed. Higher education with skill development, particularly with the help of developed countries, will be required to prepare international standard quality educational institutions in the developing countries like Bangladesh.   
Developments agenda for the years following 2015 will have to focus on making growth and economic development both sustained and sustainable. It will require not just ensuring that economic growth is entrenched into the fabric of developmental policy, but also by ensuring that economic growth takes place within the rubric of sustainability and without environmental damage. The developing countries, without forging strong global partnership, would really face huge challenges for implementing the new development agenda.
A concern might be raised about the goal of ensuring sustainable consumption and production patterns. The developed countries should take lead in this regard with technology transfer and technical knowledge for capacity development of the developing countries.
THOUGHTS ON A STAND-ALONE GOAL ON PEACEFUL AND STABLE SOCIETIES:    In the 66th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in 2011, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina presented a new peace model titled "People's empowerment and a peace-centric development model". Focusing sustained democracy as the fundamental instrument for development, she placed the following six mutually reinforcing peace multipliers: (i) Eradication of poverty and hunger; (ii) Reduction of Inequality; (iii) Mitigation of deprivation; (iv) Inclusion of excluded people; (v) Acceleration of human development; and (vi) Elimination of terrorism. The model adopted in the UN General Assembly's 66th session aims at empowering billions of voiceless, marginalised and deprived people worldwide. So any empowerment model which recognises that eradication of poverty and hunger, reducing inequality, mitigating deprivation and accelerating employment are essential for curbing extremism and terrorism must be on the right track towards human development. So the goal on peaceful and stable societies might be considered as a part of reinforcing multipliers mentioned by Prime Minister Hasina.
BANGLADESH LOOKS FORWARD: The Government of Bangladesh has prepared "Vision 2021", a long-term Perspective Plan, with the aspiration to become a Middle-Income Country by 2021, the very year when Bangladesh will celebrate its 50th years of independence. The Vision is being implemented by two successive Five Year Plans, 6th and 7th. The terminal year of MDGs and Sixth Five Year Plan coincides, hence all the goals and targets of MDGs have been incorporated in the 6th Five Year Plan to be implemented by the concerned ministries/divisions or agencies of the government.
At this juncture of shaping Post-2015 Development Agenda by the UN community, the Government of Bangladesh itself is also in the process of preparing the 7th Five Year Plan. In its endeavour to become a self-reliant country, Bangladesh will try to address national priorities along with unfinished agenda of MDGs incorporating the potential components of sustainability goals. If some of the proposals that Bangladesh placed in the UN for consideration in the Post-2015 Development Agenda are not accepted in global negotiations, these will be incorporated in national development plan as home-grown ones.
Data availability has been considered as one of the challenges for post-2015 regime. Apart from MDG monitoring, the ongoing 6th Five Year Plan of the Government has identified 35 Development Result Framework (DRF) indicators to track record the implementation of development plan in midway. The 6th Plan is being monitored based on the DRF. However, it can be flagged here that data unavailability and shortage of updated information for some indicators hinder to produce latest report on the status of MDGs attainment. Moreover, some targets have no benchmark data to compare with and some indicators don't have end targets to achieve. Some indicators are not measurable either. Some indicators of Goal 8 are not well defined. To overcome the issue, the National Statistical Organization has to be strengthened; side by side the targets and indicators of Post 2015 Development goals should have to be specific, measurable, available/achievable in a cost effective way, relevant for the programme, and available in a timely manner (SMART). Once the Post-2015 Development Goals are finalised by the UN, the relevant targets and indicators suitable for our country with baseline data and end figures will have to be developed in consultation with relevant stakeholders.
 Bangladesh deserves special attention from the international community while finalising the Post-2015 Development Agenda. Bangladesh is the forerunner in the implementation of some targets of MDGs even though it is the most densely populated country in the world except some city states. Among the LDCs, it can show the world its achievements and share the implementation skill with other countries.
Md. Monirul Islam, Senior Assistant Chief, GED, provided assistance in preparing the article.
Prof. Dr. Shamsul Alam is Member, General Economics Division, Bangladesh Planning Commission.
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