Challenges overcome: On the road to progress

The whole nation, thanks to the vibrant electronic, print and broadcast media, has been able to savour and share on the first day of January the extraordinary happiness generated through the distribution of free books to children in thousands of educational institutions.
The Ministry of Education in the recent past has been under the hammer over allegations that the quality of education being imparted in the country is going down. Last year also witnessed several mistakes in the books that were distributed among different educational institutions. This year the media has revealed that 354.2 million text books on 357 different subjects have been distributed free of cost. This included 8,405 braille books for 983 visually impaired students and 149 thousand thousand books in five ethnic languages for 58,255 students. Those receiving the free books included 43.7 million students of pre-primary, primary and secondary levels. This has indeed been a giant stride forward. In 2010, the Ministry of Education distributed a total of 199.096 million text-books to 27.6 million students. The statistics are mind-blowing. One can only hope that this year we do not end up with critics discovering fodder for more criticism among the distributed books.
Bangladesh over 2017 has had to take on several serious challenges and overcome them one at a time. There was the massive flooding that not only destroyed existing crops in north-east and north-western regions of the country but also most of the existing infrastructure in those rural areas. It affected nearly 6.25 million people.
Then came the influx of more than 650,000 Rohingya migrants who streamed into the south-eastern region of the country from the neighbouring Rakhine State, fleeing torture, rape and arson perpetrated on them in an organised manner by the Myanmar authorities and the local radicalised Buddhist community while carrying out a heinous programme of ethnic cleansing. Their arrival has pushed the total number of such illegal migrant refugees from Myanmar to over one million. The humanitarian approach on the part of our government in dealing with this crisis has meant not only providing required security and healthcare to the distressed migrant population but also ensuring reasonable quantities of food. This has assumed critical proportions in terms of disaster management and finding the financial resources for the purpose. The developed world has come forward, supported us in our quest for resolution of this crisis and promised us financial assistance. However, there has been quite a bit of lacking in terms of pledges and commitments and actual availability of funds. Consequently, Bangladesh authorities have been forced to import rice and wheat from abroad.
This difficult dynamics has been further compounded by the fact that some political parties have tried to politicise these emerging and evolving situations. They have been doing so in anticipation of the national elections that are expected to take place towards the end of this year - 2018. The Election Commission (EC) is facing crossfire even if they try their best to have an inclusive and fair election. It is proverbially almost like that adage - "Heads I win, tails you lose". We have seen only partial satisfaction after the recent Rangpur Corporation election. Instead of coming forward and welcoming the efforts made in this regard by the Election Commission and the local authorities, chants are still continuing that a free and fair election can only be possible if there is an impartial and neutral government. Practice of democracy in any State or society requires transparency, equal opportunity and accountability. It also needs belief in oneself, the credible strength in one's party and also in the institution responsible for holding the election - in this case, the Election Commission.
The total number of eligible voters in Bangladesh as of January, 2018 stands at 10,40,51,883 (104 million). In 2008, it stood at 8, 10, 87, 003 (810 million). This means there has been an addition of 2, 29, 64, 880 (22.96 billion). This means that the total number of voters who are expected to vote in one day is more than the total number of voters in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Austria, Luxembourg, Portugal, Ireland, Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Malta, Bhutan and Maldives. Consequently, all the political parties should be positive and constructive in their approach. They should assist the Chief Election Commissioner in his efforts to overcome existing difficulties. Then, the end result will be inclusive and good for the entire country.
In the economic front, we made progress in some areas. Our remittance inflow in 2017 dropped to a six-year low. In 2012, it was US$ 14.15 billion, in 2013 - US$ 13.83 billion, in 2014 -US$ 14.94 billion, in 2015 -US$ 15.32 billion, and in 2016 - US$ 13.61 billion. Last year in 2017, the total amount was US$ 13.54 billion. It improved in the second half of the year following higher exchange rate of the US Dollar against the Taka. Efforts by the Bangladesh Bank to strengthen monitoring of illegal fund transfers also helped. The central bank is optimistic that this upward trend will continue.
This hope regarding enhanced remittance is based on the fact that according to the Bureau of Manpower, Employment and Training (BMET) the total number of migrant expatriate workers who have gone abroad with employment opportunities in 2017 crossed one million, a rise of 34.15 per cent over 2016. This figure includes about 1,13,000 women workers. Most of the workers went to Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and Oman.
An encouraging development is that revenue collection has grown by 18 per cent year-on-year to Tk 753.08 billion in the July-November period of the current fiscal year driven by rising imports and increased domestic economic activities. The collection has grown at a faster pace in the current fiscal year compared to the previous year. However, the National Board of Revenue has pointed out that it has missed the target of Tk 840.66 billion for this five-month period. It is hoped that the pace of revenue collection will increase in the second half of the current fiscal year as the implementation of the Annual Development Programme (ADP) will accelerate during this period. It may be mentioned in this context that the government's development spending has grown by 40 per cent year-on-year to Tk 329.97 billion in the first five months of the current fiscal year.
The external sector may, however, come under some pressure in 2018 given the anticipated surge in food import, rise in crude oil price in the world market, private sector foreign loans and election-focused expansionary fiscal policy. This might result in foreign exchange reserves depleting further and the Taka continuing to slide against the US Dollar. The next payment of US $1.36 billion to the Asian Clearing Union is expected to decrease our foreign exchange reserve to less than US$ 32 billion from US$ 33.21 billion that existed on December 28, 2017. Settlement of Letters of Credit worth US$ 874 million pertaining to food grain imports are also going to impose some strain. However, one does not need to despair. Economists have expressed anxiety but at the same time suggested that tightening of the monetary policy for the second half of the current fiscal year might help to ease the situation. We need to wait and see how this situation evolves.
While inaugurating the 23rd Dhaka International Trade Fair on January 01, 2018, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina rightly underlined the importance of believing in ourselves and looking forward. Last year she focused on leather as an important product that needs to be supported to increase our export revenue. This year she has significantly declared the pharmaceutical products as "the "product of the year". She has also assured all help from the government to help boost export of this item. This has been a timely decision. One needs to remember that in 2015, the WTO Council extended patent waivers for pharmaceutical products for least developed countries (LDCs) till January, 2033. This means that as an LDC, Bangladesh can avail of this support till it graduates to a middle-income country status.
Last but not least, Bangladesh is poised to enter a different domain in the telecommunication information technology sector. The country's first communication satellite "Bangabandhu-1" will soon be launched into the orbit with the help of French Thales Alenia Space Company. With 40 transponders it will be able to serve SAARC countries, Indonesia, the Philippines and also, if requested, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
We have challenges ahead of us, but the glass is no longer half empty.

The writer, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information
and good governance.
[email protected]