Changing scenario in Southeast Asia

China's close attention to the Southeast Asian countries, especially Cambodia and Laos, has started paying off. Their pivotal positions in the Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) bloc as well as politically sensitive Mekong region have in fact made them special to China. The latest unified move by the US, along with Japan, to use the US-Asean and East Asian summit in Vientiane, Laos to pass a resolution against China accusing it of raising tensions on South China Sea issue has simply failed to materialise.
Despite tremendous pressures from Japan and Washington and strong support from Vietnam, Asean leaders released a final statement at the end of the three-day (September 06-08) summit saying they were "seriously concerned" over recent development in the sea. The issue was to mention the Hague-based international tribunal's ruling last July rejecting China's claim over large territory in the South China Sea putting Beijing on the carpet.
Taking up the issue, US President Barack Obama bluntly warned China that it can't reject the tribunal's ruling, driving tensions higher in territorial dispute threatening security. However, Beijing's lobby against the move produced merely a muted response.
Of course, the Asean works on consensus and that, in fact, came to Beijing's aid. It has successfully lobbied Cambodia and Laos and to an extend Thailand and Myanmar in recent years to ensure that the group does not gang up together and put pressure China. However, as the Western news agencies report, China "voiced frustration" with countries outside the region "interfering" in tussles over a strategic waterway.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chinyng said in Beijing: "We hope the US can take an objective and just attitude with respect to South China Sea issues."
Meanwhile, the Philippines, which had filed the complaint at the Hague tribunal a few years ago, appears to be not so keen in fighting the case publicly against China and so far avoided a gung-ho attitude despite Washington's strong prompting. Perhaps, it has something to do with the newly elected unorthodox president of the country Rodrigo Duterte. He has become controversial globally for his 'relentless war' on drugs in the Philippines leading to the death of over 2000 in anti-narcotic operations since his assumption of presidency in July last.
CLOSER TIES WITH SOUTHERN NEIGHBOURS: China's close ties with the Cambodian government of Prime Minister Hun Sen, who has been ruling the country for the last 31 years, have raised concerned in Washington and a few other closely allied countries in the region. The reason behind the concern is Phnom Penh's readiness to agree with Beijing's offer to invest $3.8 billion to build a new port in southern Cambodia's 90-km stretch of coastline, strategically located between Thailand in the west and Vietnam in the east.
According to Geoff Wade, Asia expert at the Australian National University, the (Cambodian port) facility accommodate most of frigates and destroyers in the Chinese navy. He has also pointed out that the Cambodian port development was part of a network of Chinese port investments in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Indonesia. Wade commented: "Ports are extremely important in this pursuit of regional domination." In this context, it needs to be mentioned that the Bangladesh government had, in fact, sought China's investment in its deep sea port development couple of years back and China had duly shown interest in the project, but the matter is still in the  negotiation list
In addition, China's military-aid agreements were signed with fanfare in November last year and Cambodia's defence minister Tea Bahn announced that Beijing had provided shoulder-fired anti-aircrafts missiles and that Phnom Pehn was seeking longer-range armaments capable of taking out fast aircrafts. China has also sold helicopters with a $200 million bilateral loan. Now in comparison, US military aid is small and bilateral political tension has blunted its expansion.
And there is a good reason. For example, last Cambodian elections were held in 2013 amid opposition complaint that it was rigged. This was followed up by the US Congress by strongly criticising it. This led to the suspension of American military aid by the Hun Sen regime.
Apparently, the nature is also being helpful to China. For example, the Mekong River system links China with the downstream states Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. The four ASEAN states form the Mekong River Commission (MRC), an inter-governmental organisation set up to promote sustainable management and development of water and related resources. China and Myanmar are MRC dialogue partners but not formal members. The Asian Development Bank funds a development project known as the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS), which includes the entire Mekong River basin. Members of the GMS include five downstream states (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam) and China's Yunnan Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. This helped greater interaction and connectivity between China and the five countries, Hanoi's disenchantment notwithstanding.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF UNEXPECTED BONHOMIE: Meanwhile, only days before the two-day Asean summit in Vientiane, Laos, Bangkok's The Nation in a commentary made an interesting observation on Myanmar and its newly elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Referring to Suu Kyi's visits to China in mid-August and Thailand in July, it said: "Myanmar is quickly becoming a game changer in the regional security dynamic." Myanmar is "serving as a lynchpin for a border cooperative framework for our two eastern neighbours." It added, "Suu Kyi's China trip has created three broad regional trends which place all three countries within the same strategic circle…. Now Suu Kyi has the liberty to shape the scope and future of US-Myanmar ties, but she prefers to forge closer ties with China as her top priority."
The United States has lately been making elaborate arrangements to clip the rising global influence of both China and Russia, and in the process it has also started to behave with its proven allies in somewhat arrogant manner showing off its superiority.
One of such incidents took place just days before the G-20 summit began in China early this month has strained Washington's ties with Canberra. Prior to Obama's departure for Hawaii and Asia, US Army Assistant Chief of Staff Colonel Tom Hanson issued what appeared to be an ultimatum to Australia through the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC).
Col Hanson bluntly told ABC: "I think Australians need to make a choice…. It's very difficult to walk this fine line between balancing the alliance with the United States and the economic engagement with China." This is a policy statement and the Colonel was a relatively low-level official to have made so. This actually chilled US-Australian relation prior to Obama's meeting with Prime Minister Malcom Turnbull at the G-20 summit.
However, the quiet development of China's bonhomie with two of the largest Buddhist countries in Southeast Asia along with Laos and Cambodia tend to be clearly changing the geopolitical scenario in the region. In view of this, Obama's attempt to ratchet up military tension in Asia as one of his last foreign policy act to cement his 'Asia pivot' has seemingly suffered a jolt. There is no certainty that his anticipated successor Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton (assuming she is elected) would actually be able to expand on his expansionist and aggressive regional showdown with China and Russia. It has nothing to do with any change in balance of power in respect of the major world powers - the US is still dominating - but the ground realities are seemingly changing.
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