Chicago corn prices set to challenge decades-long streaks

CHICAGO, March 20 (Reuters): If the recent tariff-fueled selloff in Chicago corn futures felt extreme, that's because it was, especially given the season.
Huge swings in new-crop corn prices are not typically seen in the beginning months of the year due to upcoming harvest uncertainties across the Americas.
Corn trade has been relatively muted over the last several trading sessions as the market awaits month-end data from the US Department of Agriculture as well as further US tariff news.
But CBOT December corn futures , which represent the approaching US corn crop, plunged nearly 7 per cent over an eight-session span that ended on March 4.
That marked the worst eight-session downturn for the first three months of the year since an 11 per cent loss in March 2011, when an earthquake in major commodity importer Japan threw global markets into chaos.
The latest dive was even steeper than during the pandemic onset in March 2020, when new-crop corn shed 6.2 per cent over eight sessions. Global economic concerns in early 2008 and 2009 also led to sharp early-year, eight-session losses of nearly 10 per cent.
South American weather sometimes spurs selloffs in new-crop soybeans at this time of year. But the tariff threats drove CBOT November soybeans 5.4 per cent lower in the eight-session stretch ended on March 4.
Bigger eight-session losses for new-crop beans were recorded in January 2021 and March 2023, and an 8 per cent tumble in March 2020 remains the month's largest since 2011.
Seasonality trends often take the backseat to widespread economic and geopolitical concerns, so the realm of possibilities is wide open.