China pivot from US farm imports bolsters it against trade war risks

BEIJING/SINGAPORE, Nov 1 (Reuters): China's push to shift its food import sources since 2018 has put it in a better position to impose tit-for-tat tariffs on US farm goods with less harm to its food security if trade friction with Washington flares after the US presidential election.
The threat of a trade war looms for China, the world's top importer of farm products such as soybeans and corn, with Republican candidate Donald Trump floating blanket 60 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods in a bid to boost US manufacturing.
His opponent Kamala Harris, a Democrat, is also expected to confront China on trade.
Since Trump was in the White House, China has slashed its dependence on US farm goods in a concerted effort to beef up national security, including food self-sufficiency.
The pivot began in 2018, when Beijing slapped 25 per cent tariffs on imports of US soybeans, beef, pork, wheat, corn and sorghum, retaliating against duties imposed by the Trump administration on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods.
The move led to a reshaping of global agriculture trade flows, despite Trump and then-Chinese Vice Premier Liu signing a pact in January 2020 under which Beijing promised to boost purchases of US goods and services, including farm products.
Instead, China has decreased US purchases, buying more grain from Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine and Australia, even as it boosts domestic production.
"Beijing feels much safer knowing the US has less leverage over China's food security in the event of a major conflict," said Even Pay, agriculture analyst at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China.
"That reduction is by design," she said.
This year, the share of China's soybean imports from the US has dropped to 18 per cent, from 40 per cent in 2016, while Brazil's share has grown to 76 per cent from 46 per cent, according to Chinese customs data.
For corn, Brazil overtook the US as China's top supplier in 2023, just one year after Beijing approved purchases from the South American agricultural powerhouse.
Meanwhile, Chinese livestock companies have been reducing use of soymeal in feed - a move to ease reliance on imported soybeans - while Beijing has approved genetically modified soybean and corn varieties to boost output.
China's agriculture ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
A spokesperson for Trump did not directly comment on the drop in China's reliance on US farm exports, but pointed to Trump's comments that tariff is "a beautiful word" and "we will take in hundreds of billions of dollars into our treasury and use that money to benefit the American citizens."
Harris' campaign website says the Democratic candidate "will not tolerate unfair trade practices from China or any competitor that undermines American workers".
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In anticipation of post-election tensions, Chinese buyers have boosted agricultural imports, including American soybeans and corn, traders and analysts say.