China raises tension in India dispute
Monday, 25 June 2007
Jo Johnson and Richard McGregor
INDIA'S strengthening ties with the US are the cause of China's increasingly aggressive position over the disputed India-China border in the eastern Himalayas, according to security affairs analysts in both countries.
The two fast-growing economies have co-ordinated their approach to climate change through the Group of Eight, and bilateral trade surged 56 per cent in the first four months of the year. But political relations have come under unexpected stress recently.
Beijing claims 90,000sqkm of land in the eastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which borders Bhutan and Tibet. India says China is occupying 38,000 sq km of its territory in Kashmir illegally ceded by Pakistan.
"[The Chinese claim] came as a big surprise to New Delhi," says Brahma Chellaney, an Indian security affairs analyst. "The new shrillness in China's rhetoric on territorial issues is a reflection of its anger at India gradually getting co-opted into the US league."
Hawkish elements in the Indian media accused the other day Manmohan Singh of "appeasing" Beijing after the prime minister struck a conciliatory tone in his meeting with Chinese president Hu Jintao in Berlin. Mr Singh described China as India's "greatest neighbour".
China seemed to harden its stance over the territorial dispute. Foreign minister Yang Jiechi told his Indian counterpart Pranab Mukherjee in Hamburg recently that the "mere presence" of settled populations did not affect Chinese claims.
Analysts say China's blunt assertion of claims to an area more than twice the size of Taiwan is inconsistent with "political parameters" for a potential settlement agreed in 2005 and could contaminate other areas of the relationship.
"This is the elephant in the room," says Uday Bhaskar, defence analyst. "The Indians had taken the political parameters as Chinese acceptance of the status quo. But China is now sending out very different signals. We'll have to see how far they push it."
The US is trying hard to improve bilateral relations with India. At the centre of its effort is a nuclear energy co-operation agreement that promises to end 30 years of sanctions against a country now seen as a potential counterbalance to China.
Analysts anticipate a gradual Americanisation of the Indian military, which is expected to import hardware and software worth $30bn in the next five years, according to the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India.
The country's navy chief last month said there was "no evil intent" in trilateral naval exercises with Japan and the US along the Pacific coastline of East Asia. India has also held exercises with China, Russia and south-east Asian states.
India last month cancelled a confidence-building visit to China by 107 elite civil servants after China denied a visa to an official from Arunachal Pradesh on the grounds that he was "Chinese" and did not need one.
Analysts said the denial of the visa was intended to reinforce China's claim to the entire state, not just disputed land around Tawang, which it has long asserted to be part of Tibet, itself annexed in the 1950s.
Ma Jiali, a researcher at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations in Beijing, said: "India should have been fully aware of China's stance on the border issue, which has been specified by the Chinese government many times."
Last November, days before Mr Hu's maiden visit to India, Beijing's envoy to India said the "entire state was a part of China".
The Indian ministry of external affairs has repeatedly stated that Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of India. " This position has been consistently and categorically conveyed to China," officials said.
During a trip to India by Wen Jiabao, China's premier, in 2005, India and China agreed broad principles to settle the border issue. Although negotiators will meet again in July, few expect any breakthrough ahead of Mr Singh's visit to Beijing this year.
The border dispute has not prevented a blossoming of trade and economic ties. The countries aim for two-way trade worth $40bn by 2010. Trade surged to $17.6bn in 2005-06, from $260m in 1990.
A senior Chinese foreign ministry official, speaking before the recently-held G8 summit, said the two countries had maintained "close consultations" about which policies developing countries should adopt on global warming.
"There are a lot of similarities between the two countries," the official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said. "We agree that developing countries should give top priority to poverty reduction and national development."
China released its first "action plan" on global warming last week. It promised to put the issue at the heart of its economic and energy policies, but asserted that developed countries had an "unshirkable duty" to lead in cutting emissions.
China's existing and projected emissions far outstrip India's, and that makes New Delhi a valuable ally for Beijing in warding off pressure from developed countries and Europe in particular.
......................................
FT Syndication Service
INDIA'S strengthening ties with the US are the cause of China's increasingly aggressive position over the disputed India-China border in the eastern Himalayas, according to security affairs analysts in both countries.
The two fast-growing economies have co-ordinated their approach to climate change through the Group of Eight, and bilateral trade surged 56 per cent in the first four months of the year. But political relations have come under unexpected stress recently.
Beijing claims 90,000sqkm of land in the eastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which borders Bhutan and Tibet. India says China is occupying 38,000 sq km of its territory in Kashmir illegally ceded by Pakistan.
"[The Chinese claim] came as a big surprise to New Delhi," says Brahma Chellaney, an Indian security affairs analyst. "The new shrillness in China's rhetoric on territorial issues is a reflection of its anger at India gradually getting co-opted into the US league."
Hawkish elements in the Indian media accused the other day Manmohan Singh of "appeasing" Beijing after the prime minister struck a conciliatory tone in his meeting with Chinese president Hu Jintao in Berlin. Mr Singh described China as India's "greatest neighbour".
China seemed to harden its stance over the territorial dispute. Foreign minister Yang Jiechi told his Indian counterpart Pranab Mukherjee in Hamburg recently that the "mere presence" of settled populations did not affect Chinese claims.
Analysts say China's blunt assertion of claims to an area more than twice the size of Taiwan is inconsistent with "political parameters" for a potential settlement agreed in 2005 and could contaminate other areas of the relationship.
"This is the elephant in the room," says Uday Bhaskar, defence analyst. "The Indians had taken the political parameters as Chinese acceptance of the status quo. But China is now sending out very different signals. We'll have to see how far they push it."
The US is trying hard to improve bilateral relations with India. At the centre of its effort is a nuclear energy co-operation agreement that promises to end 30 years of sanctions against a country now seen as a potential counterbalance to China.
Analysts anticipate a gradual Americanisation of the Indian military, which is expected to import hardware and software worth $30bn in the next five years, according to the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India.
The country's navy chief last month said there was "no evil intent" in trilateral naval exercises with Japan and the US along the Pacific coastline of East Asia. India has also held exercises with China, Russia and south-east Asian states.
India last month cancelled a confidence-building visit to China by 107 elite civil servants after China denied a visa to an official from Arunachal Pradesh on the grounds that he was "Chinese" and did not need one.
Analysts said the denial of the visa was intended to reinforce China's claim to the entire state, not just disputed land around Tawang, which it has long asserted to be part of Tibet, itself annexed in the 1950s.
Ma Jiali, a researcher at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations in Beijing, said: "India should have been fully aware of China's stance on the border issue, which has been specified by the Chinese government many times."
Last November, days before Mr Hu's maiden visit to India, Beijing's envoy to India said the "entire state was a part of China".
The Indian ministry of external affairs has repeatedly stated that Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of India. " This position has been consistently and categorically conveyed to China," officials said.
During a trip to India by Wen Jiabao, China's premier, in 2005, India and China agreed broad principles to settle the border issue. Although negotiators will meet again in July, few expect any breakthrough ahead of Mr Singh's visit to Beijing this year.
The border dispute has not prevented a blossoming of trade and economic ties. The countries aim for two-way trade worth $40bn by 2010. Trade surged to $17.6bn in 2005-06, from $260m in 1990.
A senior Chinese foreign ministry official, speaking before the recently-held G8 summit, said the two countries had maintained "close consultations" about which policies developing countries should adopt on global warming.
"There are a lot of similarities between the two countries," the official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said. "We agree that developing countries should give top priority to poverty reduction and national development."
China released its first "action plan" on global warming last week. It promised to put the issue at the heart of its economic and energy policies, but asserted that developed countries had an "unshirkable duty" to lead in cutting emissions.
China's existing and projected emissions far outstrip India's, and that makes New Delhi a valuable ally for Beijing in warding off pressure from developed countries and Europe in particular.
......................................
FT Syndication Service