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China, US and development of a multi-polar world order

Sayed Kamaluddin | Thursday, 3 December 2015


With a rising and increasingly powerful China making determined diplomatic forays into all parts of the globe, especially into Europe, observers and analysts alike tend to interpret it as Beijing's strategic attempt to help build a multi-polar world order. Of late, the Chinese leaders have also been explicitly saying so. It is not an ambitious goal of replacing the world's lone superpower, the United States, by itself.  While China has been advocating for a new type of great-power relationship with the US, it has also been trying to improve ties with other major powers. Beijing, obviously, gives top priority to promoting ties with the European Union and Russia.
China's unrelenting diplomatic initiatives toward all parts of the world are nothing new. This has been going on for a long time and it is now being noticed by all because of its emergence as world's second-largest economic power with military and technological muscles. But its all-out attempts at befriending major European countries, especially since President Xi Jinping's first fruitful 11-day visit to Europe early last year, and some of the comments he made during the trip were taken note of in the West.
The Chinese media described Xi's visit as "a smiling visit with confidence." It was mentioned in western media that while in France last year, Xi, quoting Napoleon's remarks, said that China is a sleeping lion and "when she woken up, will shake the world." Explaining further, he told a French audience: "Today, the lion has woken up. But it is peaceful, pleasant and civilized."    
Subsequently, when he was in Germany during the same trip, Xi asserted: "China will not stir up trouble, but we are also not afraid of trouble." This was said in obvious reference to Beijing's firm position in the long-standing dispute on its sovereignty over groups of small islets in the East and South China Sea. It was also long before the US sent its warships circling around and fighter aircraft flying over the disputed islands in South China Sea overtly expressing its support for other claimants of the islands. Dutifully Beijing strongly reacted to such "unfriendly" acts of provocation. While no major incident followed, it clearly reflected Washington's Cold War mentality nearly quarter of a century after the demise of the then Soviet Union as the other superpower. It also shows America's inner-conflicts and impulsion.
During his European tour last year, pointing his country's special relations with major countries on that continent, Xi had emphasized China's "cultural intimacy" with France and close economic ties with Germany. This was further strengthened subsequently through high-level exchange of visits, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel's eighth visit to China late last month since she took over office in 2005. During the visit, as many as 13 business deals were finalized. Only two weeks before that Xi Jinping visited Britain while was dubbed "super state visit". On this visit deals worth $61.5 billion were signed in London, which included the much-talked-about nuclear power plant with China holding one-third stake. This is Britain's first new nuclear power plant in a generation.
The incidents in South China Sea mentioned above followed Washington's declaration of its new policy of Asian pivot in which it decided to relocate 60 percent of the US armada in the Asia-Pacific theatre. The US has already decided to build and expand its existing large naval and military bases in Okinawa, Japan, despite strong and continuous protests from people of Okinawa led by its newly elected Governor. The antagonism to the existing US bases in Okinawa and its further expansion issue is a longstanding dispute with its people. Despite Japan's rightwing PM Shinzu Abe's attempts to persuade the new Okinawa Governor to agree with Tokyo's decision to allow Washington to go ahead with its expansion plans, the former appears uncompromising. Though unpleasant, it is unlikely to deter Washing and Tokyo from implementing the plan.  
A newspaper analyst in the West argues that though "geographically Washington is far from Beijing, due to its global leadership and alliance responsibilities in the region will inevitably have close encounters with a rising China…. In facing China, the US will especially seek assistance from its East Asian allies. While there are differences between the US and Japan on certain issues, both stand firmly together with regard to the challenges brought by China's emergence…..South Korea tries to maintain a line between China and the US and North Korea seems to enjoy pulling off upsets every now and then….The US cannot walk away from Asia, but its return or rebalance to Asia has not been easy." In fact, it is not becoming more difficult than was earlier anticipated.
However, US influence with major Southeast and East Asian countries is not all hunky-dory as many of them, except Japan, have joined the Beijing-sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) despite strong US opposition.  The same thing happened with Washington's close allies in Europe, including Australia, who have all joined the Chinese bandwagon. Those countries have clearly understood that - as British diplomat-turned academic Tim Summers suggested - "China has already become a significant economic power and that Beijing's approach to international economic governance matters and requires a positive and flexible response from other countries." It seemingly implies that the days of trying to isolate China are over.   
The situation, however, is no different in Europe. Compared to the US, the EU has similar GDP level and a larger population base. Smaller in size but still has a large territorial area, large enough to claim its right to be a superpower if becomes a single political unit. It is not a world leader so it has no burden or responsibilities of a world leader nor is it bound by any military alliance with the exception of NATO. Despite being close allies since the Word War II and the rise of the Soviet Union, the US's ties with some of the major European countries like Germany and France have strained both on economic and political fronts.      
Unlike with the US, European Union's policy is more flexible on economic cooperation with and high-tech exports to China. This can be useful for China to deal with them and to keep taking initiatives to strengthen bilateral ties with major European powers, which may help it  develop a balanced relationship with the US.  It would also be substantially useful to its ultimate goal of building a multi-polar world order through a consensus to which Washington may be pushed by circumstantial evidence to agree. However, analysts say that before that happens, the ongoing spurt in terrorist activities around the world and the rising menace of extremist IS group may overtake the world's attention for some time.    
Meanwhile, the recent turns of events in the Middle East, the unending Syria crises and involvement of Russia into bombing the extremists of Islamic State group in Syria in support of President Bashar Al Asad regime has introduced a totally new ball game. Ms Jill Dorothy, former CNN foreign affairs correspondent and Moscow Bureau Chief, in a recent interview told the CNN that in the latest polls after Russian bombardment in Syria, "President Vladimir Putin's ratings just hit 'stratosphere', almost 90% approval. His image driven home by non-stop video of Russian fighter bombers streaking through Syrian skies and hourly counts of how many 'terrorist' nests have been blown to smithereens, is unabashedly macho. Finally, a Russian Rambo who will take the fight to the enemy."     
This dramatic narration apart, Putin's is a pro-active role, launching a barrage of telephone calls to the leaders of Turkey, Saudi Arbia, Egypt and Jordan and urging the United States and Europe to join him in a grand alliance against terrorism. Putin's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was busy conferring with US Secretary of State John Kerry and foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Jordan. Lavrov told news agencies on Tuesday that there was no agreement about Asad's political fate after international talks in Vienna, but he had detected "a change" in the West's position since Paris attacks and the bombing of Russian passenger plane.
Another interesting observation was made by chief of intelligence and security Iraqi Kurdistan Mansour Barzani after his forces drove the IS group out of strategic town of Sinjar that the IS group could be defeated within months if the world community became fully engaged. He has told BBC's Jim Muir that "despite setbacks, IS has not been significantly weakened." Perhaps, he thought, the Paris attack killing 129 people "would be a game changer, spurring Western powers to become more involved in fighting militants." Barzani's statement was widely covered in the mainstream Western media, which also reflects a discernible change in their attitude.
Putin has been repeatedly saying that the only aim of Russian military operation in Syria is to help establish peace which should be the aim of all the Western powers involved in the region. The French President's decision to send an aircraft carrier to strengthen bombing operation on IS strongholds reflected his single-minded determination to wipe the scourge out of existence.        
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