China will record GDP growth at 10.2pc in Q3
Monday, 11 August 2008
BEIJING, Aug 10 (Xinhua): China will record a GDP growth of 10.2 per cent in the third quarter, roughly the same as the second-quarter level, according to a report released Friday by the State Information Centre, a government think tank.
The report predicted the consumer price index (CPI), a barometer of inflation, would rise by 6.6 per cent for the third quarter.
Prices of agricultural products would continue to fall, which would contribute to the stabilisation of the CPI.
Some observers believed that the pressure from the rising producer price index (PPI), which gauge ex-factory prices and influences CPI, might be a concern, but even taking into consideration its impact, consumer inflation might no longer exceed the February peak (a 12-year-high of 8.7 per cent) in the coming months and the first half of next year.
The report said reconstruction in disaster affected areas would add to demand for investment, and spending on energy efficiency would become a new focal point.
It predicted fixed-asset investment nationwide would reach 4.77 trillion yuan (695.1 billion US dollars) in the third quarter, a growth of 27.6 per cent over the same period last year. The growth rate would be 1.3 percentage points higher than the first half.
The report said consumption would continue to be a major driving force for the national economy. However, auto and home purchases ebbed notably in the first half, adversely affecting consumption in the third quarter.
It forecast retail sales at 2.61 trillion yuan nationwide in the third quarter, up 20 per cent. The growth rate would be 1.4 percentage points lower than the first-half level.
Over the first six months, China's GDP growth was 10.4 percent and CPI rise was 7.9 per cent.
Meanwhile, less than 10 per cent or 80 million-odd bankcards in China are "active", said Lin Caiyi, chief researcher with the strategic development division of China UnionPay (CUP).
According to statistics from CUP, the number of bankcards including debit cards, credit cards and quasi-credit cards in China reached 1.5 billion by the end of 2007. However, the majority of the cards have been dormant.
Li said "active cards" refer to those detected to be used at least once a month by the CUP system. "At the year-end peak season for bankcard use, there were only 80 million-odd such cards." The figures may vary as the definitions of dormant cards diverge, added Lin.
Lin believes China is potentially the largest bankcard market in the world because bankcard, together with cash, is a key payment instrument for Chinese and it has yet to make their presence in the second-tier market and the vast rural areas.
In addition, China's consumption through bankcards accounts for only 14.3 per cent of the world's level. With technological advancement, bankcard application will be expanded.
As for the credit card business in the future, Lin warns of risks in the sector. "As card issuers compete furiously for high-end clients and it thus drives up the marketing costs, they face more intense conflict between risk control and market expansion", said he. Credit card frauds should also be heeded as Internet spawns more such chances and greedy merchants cheat by unregulated practices.
The report predicted the consumer price index (CPI), a barometer of inflation, would rise by 6.6 per cent for the third quarter.
Prices of agricultural products would continue to fall, which would contribute to the stabilisation of the CPI.
Some observers believed that the pressure from the rising producer price index (PPI), which gauge ex-factory prices and influences CPI, might be a concern, but even taking into consideration its impact, consumer inflation might no longer exceed the February peak (a 12-year-high of 8.7 per cent) in the coming months and the first half of next year.
The report said reconstruction in disaster affected areas would add to demand for investment, and spending on energy efficiency would become a new focal point.
It predicted fixed-asset investment nationwide would reach 4.77 trillion yuan (695.1 billion US dollars) in the third quarter, a growth of 27.6 per cent over the same period last year. The growth rate would be 1.3 percentage points higher than the first half.
The report said consumption would continue to be a major driving force for the national economy. However, auto and home purchases ebbed notably in the first half, adversely affecting consumption in the third quarter.
It forecast retail sales at 2.61 trillion yuan nationwide in the third quarter, up 20 per cent. The growth rate would be 1.4 percentage points lower than the first-half level.
Over the first six months, China's GDP growth was 10.4 percent and CPI rise was 7.9 per cent.
Meanwhile, less than 10 per cent or 80 million-odd bankcards in China are "active", said Lin Caiyi, chief researcher with the strategic development division of China UnionPay (CUP).
According to statistics from CUP, the number of bankcards including debit cards, credit cards and quasi-credit cards in China reached 1.5 billion by the end of 2007. However, the majority of the cards have been dormant.
Li said "active cards" refer to those detected to be used at least once a month by the CUP system. "At the year-end peak season for bankcard use, there were only 80 million-odd such cards." The figures may vary as the definitions of dormant cards diverge, added Lin.
Lin believes China is potentially the largest bankcard market in the world because bankcard, together with cash, is a key payment instrument for Chinese and it has yet to make their presence in the second-tier market and the vast rural areas.
In addition, China's consumption through bankcards accounts for only 14.3 per cent of the world's level. With technological advancement, bankcard application will be expanded.
As for the credit card business in the future, Lin warns of risks in the sector. "As card issuers compete furiously for high-end clients and it thus drives up the marketing costs, they face more intense conflict between risk control and market expansion", said he. Credit card frauds should also be heeded as Internet spawns more such chances and greedy merchants cheat by unregulated practices.